June 18 Update for CA 48th Congressional District

June 18 Update for CA 48th Congressional District

Harley Rouda’s supporters will remember this day as Turnaround Day. Today, Democrat Rouda went ahead of Democrat Hans Keirstead by 40 votes, in the race for the number two spot in the Top Two General election ballot. The 48th has emerged from June Gloom to bright, sunny, blue ocean, high tide, and high surf days. A great district to represent.

Now for the dull data. The estimated total ballots left to count is 34,455, while 225,652 after Election Day ballots have been counted. These are mostly provisional ballots of an estimated 33,001 left to count, with 12,499 now counted.

The top four candidates now have the following votes:

Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has 52,013, a gain of 633 over Saturday, June 16.

Democrat Harley Rouda has 29,575, a gain of 397.

Democrat Hans Keirstead has 29,535, a gain of 243.

Republican Scott Baugh has 27,124, a gain of 284.

On June 16, Keirstead led Rouda by 114 votes. Rouda gained 397 over Keirstead’s gain of only 243. That gave Rouda a 154 boost, which covered the 114 Vote deficit and gave him a 40 vote lead.

I don’t know for sure the reason that provisional votes favor Rouda, but he seems to make steady gains in their counting.   Since we think that most provisional ballots are people who ordered mail-in ballots, but turned them in at polling places, they would have been most influenced by the end-games of the campaigns.  So it may be that more or better TV ads and mailers, and enthusiastic supporters making phone calls and household contacts, are showing their effects now.  If this plays out, then that will be a good asset in the General Election as well.

The total vote count in CA 48 is now 171,256, an increase of 2,106 over June 16.  There are still a lot to count.

Posted in 2018 California Primary, 2018 Midterm Election, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th | Leave a comment

The Ohio Voter Purge versus North Carolina Gerrymandering

The Ohio Voter Purge versus North Carolina Gerrymandering

The Ohio Voter Purge was just (or unjustly) upheld by the US Supreme Court, by 5-4. It purged registered voters who had not shown up to the polls for three elections and who failed to respond to a warning postcard, sent out ONLY after the first missed election.

I, and all Democrats and minorities could imagine this being extended to all Republican dominated states, to lessen Democratic opposition. Yet this post was going to be a positive one for Democrats, since a study of North Carolina voting records showed that for the fourth election, only 14% of blacks voted, which would have been turned away, but 78% of whites voted, who would have been turned away.  This study by Michael C. Herron and Daniel A. Smith appeared in the Washington Post on June 17, 2018.

So if Republican states read this study, they would not follow the Ohio Purge path, or they would unintentionally follow the path and harm themselves. It wouldn’t have been much of a harm, since only 3% were purgable, and 80% may have failed to respond, so only 2.4% of voters might be affected by this law.

However, the question that arose in my mind, was why only 14% of blacks who had not voted before, would be voting in a highly motivating Clinton versus Trump election. I decided to see if North Carolina was a severely gerrymandered state. BINGO! North Carolina has been ruled THE MOST GERRYMANDERED STATE!

Slowly sifting through websites, I found that NC had a Democratic Governor, two Republican Senators, arguing for a close split, but that it had three Democratic Representatives and TEN Republican Representatives. Case Closed.

The standard Republican gerrymander would be to throw all Democrats into a few districts, and leave the majority of districts with comfortable, but not extreme, Republican margins. Democrats make this easy by being largely in high density urban centers.

For hard evidence, we need look no further than the Trump versus Clinton vote result in the thirteen congressional districts. To start, Trump won NC and all of its fifteen electoral votes by a slim margin: 49.83% to 46.17%. That should indicate that without gerrymandering the NC representatives should have been distributed 7 to 6 Republican, since the 1/13 difference is 7.7%, twice as large as the 3.66% Presidential vote split.

There are indeed three districts with extremely large Clinton majorities, and Trump won the other 10. Here are the 3 Democratic district results:

District 1: Trump 30%, Clinton 67%.
District 4: Trump 27%, Clinton 68%
District 12: Trump 28%, Clinton 68%.

Clearly gerrymandered at a 2 to 1 or more ratio. Now let’s look at the Republican districts:

District 2: Trump 54%, Clinton 42%.
District 3: Trump 60%, Clinton 36%.
District 5: Trump 57%, Clinton 39%.
District 6: Trump 56%, Clinton 41%.
District 7: Trump 57%, Clinton 39%.
District 8: Trump 56%, Clinton 41%.
District 9: Trump 54%, Clinton 42%.
District 10: Trump 60%, Clinton 36%.
District 11: Trump 62%, Clinton 33%.
District 13: Trump 53%, Clinton 44%.

While the Democratic districts were all crowded with Democratic at 67% and 68%, the highest crammed Republican districts were one at 62%, and two at 60%. There was one Republican district as low as 53%, and two at 54%.

Even if NC did not have a winner take all electoral vote system, but a district one, Dems would have only gotten three electoral votes, and Reps would have gotten the 10 districts plus the two senate electoral votes, for 12 electoral votes. If the US voted countrywide by popular vote, Greetings President Clinton, by three million votes.

If you were a Democrat in the state of North Carolina, as far as the Presidency was concerned, it would have mattered if you voted, since the state had a slate of electors for each party, and the slate chosen was by the statewide popular vote. Yet the polls should have shown a clear Republican win beforehand.

If you were a Democrat in the state of North Carolina in the extremely crammed three Democratic districts, it would not have mattered as far as your district’s Representative’s race, as it would have ended Democratic.

If you were a Democrat in the 10 majority Republican districts, it may have mattered only in three of them, as far as your voting.

So, depressing note as far as Republican, or also Democratic, gerrymandering. But as far as the Ohio Voter Purge movement goes, still great if Republicans pursue it in states where they already have a super majority.

Posted in 2016 Election, Clinton, Donald Trump, Equal Treatment Under the Law, Ohio Voter Purge, Supreme Court, Trump Voting | Leave a comment

Is Trump’s Mania Approaching a Boiling Point?

Is Trump’s Mania Approaching a Boiling Point?

Mathematically, it could be called a singularity. Physics would call it a critical point or a phase change. As such a point is approached, things take place faster and faster, and the scale of the phase change goes from local small bubbles to larger bubbles to the entire substance.  In Trump’s case, it could also be called a meltdown.

This past week has been a phase change in foreign relations. Trump started out criticizing everybody in the G7, to totally trusting and praising the cruel dictator of North Korea. This continued with Trump’s legal lies blaming the separating of asylum seeking families on Democrats, and then trying to justify it with the Bible and that they make good negotiating hostages. Then Trump plans a direct meeting with Putin, and we can only guess what Trump will give away then. Maybe garlands to celebrate Russia’s interference with our election, and slathering praise of Putin.

The trend is that these absurdities are occurring more frequently, and with increasing magnitude. You can see the critical point coming, and nothing good will happen at that point. This is just the criteria that the 25th amendment was meant for. When the President’s destructive actions just explode all of our century long gains in security cooperation, economic cooperation and prosperity. The 25th allows the Vice President to declare the President temporarily unfit to serve.

The sidelining of the President will be relatively easy. Since Trump never reads the declarations which he signs, just put his taking a leave form into a declaration and watch him sign it with a smile.

We are all aware that Vice President Mike Pence is playing it cool, laying low, and expecting to advance to becoming the Republican Presidential candidate in another six years, in 2024. Certainly, no Republican can cross Trump and not be destroyed by Trump’s rabid supporters. However, that’s assuming business-as-usual. Trump is anything but that. And as Trump’s destructiveness approaches a critical point, either the Vice President or Congress must act to save what is left of the country and our economy and businesses and jobs.

Of Course, Rudy Giuliani will tell The Donald that the 25th amendment doesn’t apply to him, as he has told him about the rest of the Constitution. But, if the Republican Congress is looking into the Abyss of a Defeat, and Pence sees his dream going up in smoke, they may have to act, using the 25th.

It is clear that if any of the previous Presidents had done what Trump has in the past week, they would have already been declared as mental cases. We have just grown used to Trump’s and Fox New’s distorted world, which has numbed us to the incredible shock and craziness of the past week.

If people are hoping that that was just an oddball week, and things will return to a relative calm, they are probably mistaken. The fact that Trump got away with such radical behaviors just leaves him to believe that even crazier actions cannot be stopped. Trump’s own advisors, cabinet heads, executive departments, and even affected closest allies are not consulted or informed of anything that goes on. As Trump usually megalomanizes “I am the only one who matters”.

Trump has promised us a one-on-one with Putin. What kind of a Farm of unasked for concessions will Trump be throwing at his favorite world dictator? Unfortunately, we won’t know until they are fait accompli. This has to stop before that! And before we are at total trade wars with all except Russia and North Korea.  Stay tuned.

Posted in 2018 Midterm Election, Affairs of State, Congress, Donald Trump, Humor, Mathematics, North Korea, North Korean Nuclear Agreement, Politics, Trump Administration | Leave a comment

June 16 Update for the CA 48th Congressional District

June 16 Update for the CA 48th Congressional District

I can make this real short by cutting to the chase, literally. This will please supporters of Democrat Harley Rouda: Rouda only trails Democrat Hans Keirstead by 114 votes today, whereas yesterday he trailed by 335 votes. This is a relative jump by 221 votes for Rouda, and it brings him much closer to be able to get a lead as the random walk continues, for the second spot on the Top Two General Election ballot.

And now for a lot of boring details, which nobody needs to read.

Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has 51,380 votes for 30.4%, a gain of 1,726 over yesterday.

Democrat Hans Keirstead has 29,292 votes for 17.3%, a gain of 919.

Democrat Harley Rouda has 29,178 votes for 17.2%, a larger gain of 1,140 votes than Keirstead.

Republican Scott Baugh has 26,840 votes for 15.9%, a gain of 829 votes.

The total vote count for CA 48 is up to 169,150, a gain of 3,655.

Orange County ballots left to count declined from 43,425 by 4,742 to 38,683, almost all of which are provisionals.

Happy Father’s Day to All

Posted in 2018 California Primary, 2018 Midterm Election, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th | Leave a comment

Titles and Outlines for Trump Articles Which I Don’t Have Time to Write

Titles and Outlines For Trump Articles Which I Don’t Have Time to Write

To Donald: Wolves Also Prey on the Young, Injured, and Elderly

Trump is currently using separation of children from parents seeking asylum as a bargaining chip to get his wall build and to limit family chain immigration. No time to mention Trump’s mother, etc. Trump’s withholding CHIPS medical care for young children. Trump’s putting 0.8 million DACA and another million similar youngsters in purgatory for a year as bargaining chips. Trump’s savaging public education. Trump’s cutting off people with pre-existing conditions from medical coverage under Obamacare. Enjoy watching Trump make fun of handicapped people? Trump’s coming attacks on Medicare to pay for his rich-mans tax cuts and budget overruns for the military. Now that his attacks separating children is proving unpopular, it is Obama’s fault, the Democrats’ fault, Jeff Session’s fault, and, finally, the Bible’s fault.

Trump’s New “Celebrity Pardons” Weekly Staged TV Show

Are you a celebrity who needs a pardon? Maybe a #MeToo victim, like Trump himself? Come see the President, and pick up your pardon. Are you a relative of a celebrity? Can you get an NFL player to back you, or another sports figure? Do you represent a populist cause, like notorious Sheriff Arpaio? Schedule your week for a pardon, and run for the Senate. Anyone that will bring more votes to Trump is all that you need. Christmas and Thanksgiving shows are reserved for family members only. Enjoy every New Year’s show when Trump yearly pardon’s himself and his lawyers.

Trump Has Never Met a Dictator He Doesn’t Envy

And expresses it publicly.  Fortunately, several writers have already written this up in the major Free Press.

Posted in Donald Trump, Humor | Leave a comment

June 15 Update on CA 48th Congressional District Primary

June 15 Update on CA 48th Congressional District Primary

The total ballots in Orange County are now 581,690, or 39.3% of registered voters.

The number of votes counted after Election Day is now 253,107, up 23,000 from yesterday’s 230,107. I don’t know where these votes came from, and it is isn’t explained on the registrar’s website. Is it late mail deliveries because of insufficient postage? The post office delivers them anyway.

There are 43,425 votes left to count, while there were 46,701 left to count yesterday. Of this amount, 42,269 are provisionals left, while only 3,231 have been counted so far.

Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has 49,654 votes, seemingly down from 49,926 yesterday. My presentation of numbers could have occasional mistakes.

Democrat Hans Keirstead has 28,373, up from 26,640 yesterday, by 1,733.

Democrat Harley Rouda has 28,038, up from 26,311 yesterday, by 1,727.

Republican Scott Baugh has 26,011, up from 24,614 yesterday, by 1,397.

Keirstead leads Rouda by 335 votes, up 6 from 329 yesterday. That change out of an increase of 1,733 votes is amazingly small, but also rare.

The total CA 48th vote count is now at 165,495, up from yesterday’s count of 153,287 by 12,208. The total is 28.5% of the Orange County total. Yet the daily increase is 53% of the after Election Day votes increase. Hence, it is hard to make predictions going forward.

There will also be a Saturday update.

One reflection on California’s long mail-in period, is that candidates have to deliver mailers and buy TV ads over that entire period in order to cover the interval where different people turn to their ballots.  This raises the cost to all leading candidates of each party.    Having so many leading candidates also raises the total contributions needed for the primaries, which could have been used in the General Election.  A unified party approach to the Primary would greatly increase the party’s chances for success.

Posted in 2018 California Primary, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th | Leave a comment

June 14, Orange County and CA 48 District Update

June 14, Orange County and CA 48 District Update

The ballot count is now down to the Provisional Ballots. Most of these are probably by voters who signed up for mail ballots, but decided to cast a vote at a precinct. They wait till last to count them to be sure that they did not also send in their mail ballot.

Their are 46,701 ballots left to count and 44,717 are Provisional. Out of an Orange County total of 230,107 after Election Day ballots, the number left is 20%.

The percentage of OC registered voters voting in the Primary is now 37.4%. 2/3 voted by mail, and 1/3 through their precinct.

The Governor’s race was led by Republican John Cox with 36.7%, and with Democrat Gavin Newsom 24.5% to appear on the Top Two November Ballot. However, if you add all of the votes of the candidates who received more than 1%, you find equality in Orange County: Republicans 48.3% to Democrats 48.2%. So much for Orange County being strongly Republican, at least in the Primary.

The Attorney General’s race is also close, Republican 52.0% to Democrats 48.0%. The 45th Congressional District has Republican incumbent Mimi Walters at 52.1%, and Democrats at 47.9%, with Democratic winner Katie Porter to be in the Top Two ballot.

Now for the CA 48th coastal district.

30 year Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has 49,926 votes for 30.6%.

Democrat Hans Keirstead has 26,640 votes for 17.4%.

Democrat Harley Rouda has 26,311 votes for 17.2%.

Republican Scott Baugh has 24,614 votes for 16.1%.

Keirstead leads Rouda by 329 votes, slightly less than the 370 votes he led by last night.

Baugh trails Keirstead by 2,026 votes, which was 1,693 last night.

The total of Republican Primary votes in the CA 48th is now at 81,778, or 53.3%. The total of Democratic votes is 70,153 or 45.8%. The difference is 7.5%. The total number of votes so far in the 48th is 153,287, or 8,561 more votes than yesterday.

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Some Rays of Hope Against Trump-o-mania

Some Rays of Hope Against Trump-o-mania

There were some rays of sane hope that have appeared this week in the crazy world of Trump-o-mania.

First and foremost, Trump stated that we need have no fear of war with North Korea. I believe him. It became clear in the year of Trump threatening North Korea’s Kim Jung Un with some sort of raid or war, with the name-calling, and the Fire and Fury off-the-cuff threat, that Trump himself was the real danger for starting a limited war with nuclear consequences. While Trump’s Nobel Earning Photo Op day on 6/12/18 gained nothing from North Korea, Trump gave away the Farm on all of his possible negotiating points. The only thing the people of Korea, Japan, China, and the US gained is Trump’s backing down from the edge.

In Trump’s post-meeting news conference he even admitted that in six-months he could be proved wrong, but said he would never admit it or apologize, he would just cover it up, he joked. Finally, an honest statement from Trump.

I wrote a serious piece showing the Trump-Session policy of separating children at the border was analogous to the situations applied to the babies Moses and Jesus in the Bible. Jeff Sessions has now said that their policy has a biblical reference. I would agree, if the reference is to Trump acting like the dictatorial Pharaohs and Romans Prelates.  Evangelist Franklin Graham, son of Billy Graham, has denounced the separation policy.  Cardinal Daniel N. DiNardo, President of the US Conference of Catholic Bishops, has called the policy immoral.

Jim Bridenstine, the new NASA administrator, who was a climate science denier, has now converted to believing climate science, and backing NASA’s satellite projects to study earth system science. Bridenstine was the Representative from Oklahoma’s Tulsa district, of all places. EPA Administrator, Scott Pruitt, is also from Tulsa. Oklahoma is a prime oil state, and it’s richest oilman, Harold Hamm, is a key Trump backer.

The Russians have been detected already hacking this election. The good thing is that they have been detected this early, with still months to teach people how not to fall for phishing emails. We also need to start examining voting machines for any hacking software, which they may have picked up when running during the primaries. I assume Facebook is also trying to prevent social media manipulation.

The New York State Attorney General has filed a lawsuit against the charitable Trump Foundation, for mixing political payments and legal fine payments from their funds. With all of the crooked Trump behavior being investigated, it’s good to see at least one turning into charges.

James Inhofe, Senator from Oklahoma and the Senate’s leading climate science denier (the snowball incident) came at least as far as saying “If Scott Pruitt doesn’t stop. I will drop my support”.

Hillary Clinton was cleared yet again of prosecution for her independent email server, and, finally, Comey was called out by the Inspector General for redressing Clinton publicly, and publicizing the Weiner laptop reopening of her investigation.

A court has ordered EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt to show his scientific evidence against climate change, since he cannot state it as a justification for cancelling the Obama Clean Energy Program without revealing it.

The downer, is that Jeff Sessions has refused to defend the Obamacare requirement that Insurance Companies cannot discriminate against patients with pre-existing conditions. The only good thing is that Sessions said that he was following orders from Trump. Apparently, they are both unaware that the average voting age in Orange County is 59 years. Most of us don’t have doctors like Trump’s, who say that he is the healthiest President ever at the oldest age of 70, or will live to 200 years. Trump is 72 today. 128 years to go.

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June 13 Update of the CA 48th Congressional Election

June 13 Update of the CA 48th Congressional District

Orange County had 517,875 votes cast in the primary, which is 34.9% of the registered voters in the county.

Of the 210,107 post election day ballots to count, 148,653 have now been counted, or 70.8%. 61,454 are left to count. Last night, the number counted was 60%. If the 10% gain in counted ballots continue, it will take three more days, and could mainly end Monday night.

Update:  45,500 of the ballots left to count, or three quarters, are Provisional Ballots.  These are probably mostly voters who signed up to submit mail-in ballots, but decided to vote at the polls instead.  After the registrar verifies that they have not sent in ballots, their votes will be accepted.  It also includes those who showed up at a different polling place, or did not have identification.

The leading four candidates in the CA 48th now have the following number of votes:

Republican Dana Rohrabacher has 44,356 or 30.6%.

Democrat Hans Keirstead has 25,052 or 17.3%.

Democrat Harley Rouda has 24,682 or 17.1%.

Republican Scott Baugh has 23,359 or 16.1%.

The crucial Keirstead lead over Rouda is now reduced to 370 votes. On June 12 it was 456 votes, or 86 votes more. On June 11 it was almost the same as today, namely 372. This is to be expected if they are fluctuating or random walking around a mean.

Democrat Hans Keirstead lead over Republican runner-up Scott Baugh is now 1,693. This has grown from last night’s lead of 1,594.

Today’s party count in the CA 48 is: Republican 77,344; Democrat 66,103; and total 144,726. Last night’s total was 138,420. So there was a gain of 6,306 votes today. Yesterday, there were 5,238 votes added.

You can play a lot of “What If” games if there had not been so many candidates, and if their votes went to the second place finisher in each party in the count so far. I will just indicate the possibilities.

The two leading and almost tied Democrats have 49,734 vote between them. Yet the total Democratic vote was 66,103 votes. That means 16,369 votes went to other Democrats. They could have dramatically changed the leading Democrats’ votes who had around 25,000 votes each.

The total of the two leading Republicans is 67,715. The total of Republican votes is 77,344, so 9,629 went to down ballot Republicans. While that would not have put Baugh ahead of Rohrabacher, it would have put him over any Democrat, and led to a Top Two Republican November ballot.

Food for thoughts.

Posted in 2018 California Primary, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th | Leave a comment

June 12 Update of CA 48th Congressional District

June 12 Update of CA 48th Congressional District

Now, 60% of the Orange County post Election Day votes have been counted. At this rate, they should be done by the end of this week.

In the CA 48th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher is still the leader with 30.6% of the vote, and 42,405 votes.

The prized second place will be the only other candidate on the November Top Two ballot. Democrat Hans Keirstead is ahead with 23,969 and 17.3%. Closely behind is Democrat Harley Rouda, with 23,513 and 17.0%.

Keirstead’s lead has grown to 456 votes from 372 last night. This is 1.9% of Keirstead’s vote, but only 0.33% of the overall vote.

The next Republican is Scott Baugh with 22,375 votes. He is 1,594 votes behind Keirstead, or 6.7% of Keirstead’s vote.

The total vote in the 48th is now 138,420. The gain since last night is 5,238 votes. Three more nights like this one could add about 15,000 votes in this district. The unknown sampling of the County versus this District makes any predictions meaningless.

The Republican versus Democrat lead has grown from 7% to almost 8%, 53.5% to 45.6%.

Posted in 2018 California Primary, 2018 Midterm Election, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th | Leave a comment