The Club of Rome World Projections to the Year 2050

“Transformation is feasible”.  “How to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals Within Planetary Boundaries.”

A Report to the Club of Rome from the Stockholm Resilience Center and the BI Norwegian Business School. 

They use a model with many development factors to model what futures we may have.  I have presented their most positive obtainable model below.

They propose the following Transformational Actions to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2050. 

  1. Accelerated renewable energy growth, halve carbon emissions every decade.
  2. Accelerated productivity in food chains, by 1% a year.
  3. New development models in poorer countries.
  4. Active inequality reduction to less than 40% going to the top 10%.
  5. Education for all, gender equality, health care, and family planning to stabilize the world’s population.

The UN Sustainable Development Goals and desired “Green” outcomes follow.

  1. No poverty:  Fraction below $1.90 a day is less than 2%.
  2. Zero hunger:  Less than 7% undernourished.
  3. Good health:  Life expectancy greater than 75 years.
  4. Quality education:  Greater than 10 years universal.
  5. Gender equality:  Parity in schooling greater than 95%.
  6. Safe water:  For population greater than 98%.
  7. Enough energy:  Access to electricity greater than 98%.
  8. Decent jobs:  Job growth greater than 1% a year.
  9. Industrial output:  GDP per person greater than $6,000 PPP per year.
  10. Reduced inequality:  Less than 40% of national income to richest 10%.
  11. Clean cities:  Urban aerosols of 2.5 M less than 10 microgram per cubic meter.
  12. Responsible consumption:  Ecological footprint less than 1.4 gha/person.
  13. Climate action:  Temperature rise less than 1 degree C.
  14. Life below market:  Acidity of ocean surface greater then pH of 8.15.
  15. Life on land:  Old growth forest greater than 25 million? kilometer squared.
  16. Good governance:  Government spending greater than $3,000 PPP per person per year.
  17. More partnership:  Greater than 15% of GDP to exports.

Achieving these goals would require that the 2050 world’s population be reduced to 7.7 billion.  Other reductions are the US population would be 307 million, the Chinese population at 1.3 billion, and the Indian population at 1.81 billion.

Share of income to the top 10% would be reduced worldwide from 49% in 2015 to 40%.  The US share would be reduced from 47% to 39%.  India’s (the highest) would be reduced from 55% to 40%.

Ecological use is measured in global productive area in hectares (about 2.5 acres) per person (gha/p).  The world average is 3, and would stay at that value.  The US average is, of course, 8, the largest, and would be reduced to 5 in 2050.

The GDP per person worldwide in 2015 PPP was $13,000, and would rise to $29,000.  The US GDP per person was $49,000, and would only rise to $53,000.

I like to go to science fiction movies to see what kind of a utopia they envision, but most often it is a dystopia.  These actions and goals can take us from our present dystopia to a shining utopia in 2050.  Many Democrats have the same goals in our present election.

Posted in 2018 Midterm Election, Affairs of State, Clean Energy, Climate Change, Economies, Education, Fossil Fuel Energy, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Ocean Acidification, Paris Climate Accord, Poverty, Renewable Energy, Smog worldwide, United Nations, Upward Mobility, Wealth, Women’s Rights, World Smog | Leave a comment

Election Probabilities for the US, California, and CA 45th, 48th, and 49th from Nate Silver

Election Probabilities for the US, California, and CA 45th, 48th, and 49th, from Nate Silver

We present midterm election probabilities from Nate Silver, who uses multi-factor statistical analyses, covering US, California, and local house races.  The website is fivethirtyeight.com

The probability of the Democrats controlling the House is 84.5%, while the probability of the Republicans maintaining control is only 15.5%.  The center of the predicted split is 234 D to 201 R.  Wow.

The popular vote for the house is Democrats with an 8.8 point margin.  A margin greater than 5.5 leads to a Democratic House.

For the Senate, the probability of the Democrats taking control is only 1 in 5.  The probability of the Republicans maintaining control is 4 in 5.

Trump’s approval rating is at 42.6%, with 52.2% disapproving.

The house races can be classified into likelihood categories for seats as:

190 Solid D,   > 95% probability of a D win

18   Likely D,  > 75% D

8     Lean D,   >  60% D

21.  Toss up,  <  60% both.   7 of these to D gives them the 223 majority 

19.  Lean R,   >  60% R

48   Likely R,  >  75% R

131 Solid R,   >  95% R

Adding these up gives 216 D, 198 R, with 21 toss-ups.  The Dems, then, would need only 7 of the toss-ups to make 223.

Prediction for CA 45th, Lean D:

D Katie Porter.   Win probability, 7 in 10.  Predicted vote 51.7%. 

R Mimi Walters. Win probability, 3 in 10,  Predicted vote 48.3%.

Prediction for CA 48th, Lean D:

D Harley Rouda.          Win probability, 2 in 3.  Predicted vote 51.4%.

R Dana Rohrabacher.  Win probability, 1 in 3.  Predicted vote 48.8%.

Prediction for CA 49th, Likely D:

D Mike Levin.     Win probability 19 in 20.  Predicted vote 55.1%.

R Diane Harkey. Win probability   1 in 20.  Predicted vote 44.9%.

California has 53 Representatives in the House.  Ratings are:

39 Solid D

2.  Likely D

3.  Lean D

1.  Toss up 

4.  Likely R

4.  Solid R

If we add these up, we get 44 D and 8 R, with one toss up, to make 53.  The current breakdown in the House from CA is 39 D and 14 R.  So this would be a gain of 5 for D and loss of 6 for R, with one toss-up.

The toss up California district is the 39th.  Democrat Gil Cisneros and Republican Young Kim are each given equal 1 in 2 chances.   The predicted outcome is the very close 50.1% to 49.9%, respectively. 

All three of the these races require dedicated campaign work.

Posted in 2018 Midterm Election, Congress, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th, Donald Trump, Mimi Walters CA 45th | Leave a comment

Funds for Orange County Congressional Candidates

Funds for Local and Another CA Congressional District

The funding reports are totals of the 2018 race from 2017-18, filed for the third quarter on 9/30/2018.  They are only for the final two candidates.  The data are taken from opensecrets.org, from the Center for Responsive Politics.  They are for local California districts, including the two Coastal Republican districts, and a toss-up one.  The numbers are in millions of dollars.  Inc. means incumbent.

Candidate:                      Raised:     Spent:    Cash on Hand:

CA 45th:  Irvine and UC Irvine district:

R. Mimi Walters (Inc.).         3.89.           3.35.            0.93. 

D. Katie Porter.                       5.00.           4.45.            0.55. 

CA 48th:  local coastal district:

R. Dana Rohrabacher (Inc.).  2.17.          1.90.            0.51             

D. Harley Rouda.                    5.77.             4.27.           1.50.

CA 49th:  used to be R Darrel Issa’s coastal district:

D. Mike Levin.                        4.87.              3.36.           1.51. 

R. Diane Harkey.                    1.32.              1.13.           0.19. 

CA 39th:  a toss-up

D. Gil Cisneros.                      9.95.              9.67.          0.28. 

R. Young Kim.                        2.19.              1.85.           0.34. 

In all four races, the Democrat has raised the most funds.  Except in the CA 45th, the Democratic funds are far greater than the Republican funds.  The funds are much greater than the last quarter 6/30 funds, so the cash on hand is not crucial since more funds will be raised in October.

 

Posted in 2018 Midterm Election, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th, Mimi Walters CA 45th, Politics | Leave a comment

Dictators Suppressing the Press and Opponents Often Backfires

Why Don’t Dictators See that Suppressing the Press or Opponents Only Leads to Vastly More Negative Publicity?

Why is it that the killing of one of Putin’s political opponents outside the Kremlin wasn’t forseen as elevating an unknown opponent to eternal questions?  Why didn’t Putin foresee that taking over the investigation would lead to endless questions about why isn’t it solved?  Why were the poisonings of Putin’s long past opponents in foreign countries not foreseen as events that would dominate the news for weeks?  

Unfortunately, my theory was that the publicity was part of the purpose of the event to warn others to not oppose Putin, or to think that they could freely walk away from it.  The methods chosen involved long periods of suffering to drive the case home.  The other related possibility is that they are as sensitive to any criticism as we see daily in Donald Trump, and that revenge is a chronic compulsion of their personality.

All dictators seem to have this compulsion.  Kim Jong Un and his predecessors in North Korea, Erdogan in Turkey, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt, Xi-Jinping of China, now a lifetime dictator, Vladimir Putin of Russia, and now Crown Prince MBS or Muhammad bin Salman of Saudi Arabia.  While I learned that half of Saudi citizens access the internet, I only just learned that it is heavily censored.

Trump is apparently following Lincoln’s warning by fooling some of the people all of the time.  This should be the Fox News logo.  Most Republicans now believe that the other networks and Newspapers and sources are indeed “fake news”.  If somebody publishes a book or sends a letter, or even makes a minor comment which would pass the news in 10 seconds, or be read by only a few in this vast news source country, Trump extends the attention span for a week or longer by getting dragged into it.  

Trump’s advisors must warn him about this hourly, but it can’t stop him.  I won’t even try to document this, since we all remember the cases of most interest to ourselves.  I guess you can start with any of the 6,000 lies.  But there are also the daily “you just can’t make this stuff up” situations and tweets.  Modern TV technology allows embarrassing lies to be easily reshown over and over.

While Trump’s crude attempts at suppression are ineffective, but not laughable (enemy of the people and other inciting comments about the press), the suppression of the press and opponents under dictatorships are vastly effective.  People cannot even talk to others about political opinions. 

As a Trump opponent, I should like this TV and Press overreaction, but it is actually vastly overdone, and allows Trump to get away with the daily dismantling of our clean energy policies and daily erosion of our environmental protections.  Encouraging clean energy and environmental protection are of course the goals of this blog.

Posted in Donald Trump, Freedom of Speech, Freedom of the Press, Freedom to Assemble, Freedom to Petition, Freedoms, Secrecy, Trump Truthiness, Trump's Mental Health | Leave a comment

Iran is the Real Target, and US Banks See a Risk

Iran is the Real Target, and US Banks See a Risk

Apparently, I have been misguided in focusing on Saudi Arabia and its oil.  Trump’s real goal is to block the worldwide export of Iranian oil, as a punishment for their audacity in actually conforming to the nuclear disarmament treaty.  Trump has withdrawn from the “ridiculous” Obama-Kerry treaty, and promised retaliation to any of the other countries that stay in the treaty.

Mental health note vis-a-vis the 25th Amendment:  Trump has progressed from believing that he owns all American industries and businesses, to believing that he controls all World industries and businesses.

The implementation of the restrictions are on Nov. 5, one day before the midterm election.  I expected some Fox News run White House October surprises, but nobody could have expected the Saudi murder, plus the Iran crises with our allies.  The US gets no oil from Iran, so this is not a direct US crises.

Another costly aspect is that US banks planned to fund the progressive development of other industries in Saudi Arabia, which wasn’t occurring anyway.  They also planned to handle the partial sale and public offering of Aramco, the Saudi oil company.  Well, that was when oil was $40 a barrel and the Saudi’s had to borrow money.  Now that oil is $80 a barrel, Saudi Arabia would be foolish to sell.

So Iran supplies 4.8% of world oil.  Maybe that is easy for OPEC and even US and Canadian fracking to make up for.   But the price will go up.  It might be difficult for Saudi Arabia to pick up the output itself, since while it leads world oil production, it supplies 15.9% of world output, and this would be a 30% increase.  In any case, on Nov. 5, Trump will enrich Saudi Arabia, despite their misdeeds.

Oct. 18 Update:  for the following section, it has been determined that only $14.5 billion of military purchases are at stake.  While still a lot, the President claimed that is is 7.6 times larger.

Before, Trump said that we could not risk the future of Saudi arms purchases of $110 billion, for the life of a non-citizen.  Boy, that makes me feel great that as a citizen, my life is worth $110 billion!  Really?  I would settle for some promised action on reducing my drug prices.  But today, Donald stepped that up by saying that the Saudis committed to $450 billion of total purchases from the US “probably the biggest in the history of the world” (of course).  So far, it seems that only about $4 billion of the arms agreements are active.

Let’s see:  the US has only 15% of Saudi imports, at $20.6 billion a year.  So is Trump just promising us that they will continue their imports for the next 22 years?  Or that they will double their US imports for the next 22 years?  We can’t tell.

The value of Iranian oil imports in 2017 was $40.1 billion, and the yearly average oil price was $52.51 per barrel.  At $80 per barrel now, the revenue is increase by 52% to $61.1 billion.  80% of Iranian exports are in oil.  Their main export destinations are China 30.1%, India 16.7%, South Korea, Turkey 9.5%, and Japan 6.8%.  Iran has 10% of the world’s proven oil reserves, and 15% of its gas reserves.  Members of the Iranian nuclear treaty are France, Germany, the EU, Iran, the UK, China, Russia, and previously, the US.

“And the beat goes on, the beat goes on” – Cher

Posted in Donald Trump, Iran, Oil, Saudi Oil Imports | Leave a comment

Tired of Having the Saudi Crown Prince Laughing at America?

Tired of having the Saudi Crown Prince laughing at America?

Want to get back at their despot who can cruelly murder a Washington Post reporter who is also an American resident, in their consulate?  Who jails their women protesters?  Who allows no dissent?  Who makes a destructive war?  Who has bought our President, Donald Trump?

It’s easy.  First, mail in your ballot or vote in three weeks for a Congress not under Trump’s thumb.

Then, set your newer car onto Econ mode.  The US as a whole only gets 5% of its oil from Saudi Arabia.  You can drive more economically by lining up your car trips into one trip, maybe at the end of when you do a commute.  You can also carpool a few days a week.  Or, just relax when you drive and not speed up to where you have to brake fast at every signal.  Or do your longer commute with your most fuel economical car.  You can also drive the speed limit, where your car gets its best fuel economy.

If you live in California, you have to cut your gas usage by 15%, since 15% of our gas comes from Saudi Arabia.  Just do the last paragraph a little more often.  

Then, call or email your congressperson on their website about what you have done, so that they can vote for sanctions on Saudi Arabia. 

Trump can prevaricate and dissemble all he wants.  We don’t have to. We can act now!

Posted in Oil | Leave a comment

World Oil Use and Exports

World Oil Use and Exports

In order to understand the challenge of reducing oil usage to mitigate climate change, we examine oil use by country or region.  We then look at world oil trade in terms of oil exporters.

The US federal government is currently under the spell of oil oligarchs, and other countries depend on oil, gas or coal exports for their wealth, and imports for their energy.  These can also block climate change mitigation.

Total worldwide oil consumption is 99.6 million barrels per day (bbl/day) in 2018.  Since this is almost 100, the numbers below are also percentages.  The data below starts with that for 2017 in millions of barrels per day.

  1. US.        19.9.     EU. 15.0
  2. China.   13.2.   The US, EU, and China make up 48% of the total.
  3. India       4.69
  4. Japan.    3.99
  5. Saudi Arabia. 3.92
  6. Russia.   3.22
  7. Brazil.     3.12
  8. South Korea   2.80
  9. Germany 2.45
  10. Canada.  2.43. The top 10 are 60% of total oil usage.
  11. Iran.        1.95. This and below are from 2015.
  12. Mexico.   1.93
  13. France.    1.61
  14. Indonesia 1.63
  15. UK.           1.56. The top 15 are 68% or 2/3 of the total.

California uses 1.84 million barrels per day, so we would be number 13.

The list of oil exporters for the year of 2017 in terms of the total cost in US billions of dollars and the percentage is given below.  OPEC countries are starred.

  1. Saudi Arabia*    133.6.   15.9%
  2. Russia.                  93.3.   11.1
  3. Iraq*.                     61.5.     7.3
  4. Canada.                 54.        6.4
  5. United Arab Emirates*. 49.3.     5.9
  6. Iran*.                    40.1.     4.8
  7. Kuwait*.               38.2.     4.5
  8. Nigeria*.               33.      3.9
  9. Angola*.               30.5.   3.6
  10. Kazakhstan.         26.6.   3.2
  11. Norway.                25.9.    3.1
  12. Venezuela*.          23.1.    2.7
  13. United States.      21.8.   2.6
  14. Mexico.                 19.9.    2.4
  15. United Kingdom 19.       2.3

The top 15 are 80% of oil exports.  The top 10 are 67% or 2/3.  OPEC countries shown total 49%.

California spent $62.5 billion on oil in 2016.  With a population of 39 million, this is $1,600 per capita in California.  Oil in 2016 was at a very low price of $41 per barrel.  The cost today is about $80 per barrel.

Posted in Oil, World Oil Exports, World Oil Usage | Leave a comment

Legal Weasel in Chief: Donald Trump

Legal Weasel in Chief: Donald Trump

It took Trump two weeks, and many prodding calls to the Saudi King and Prince, but Trump has again constructed a weasel out of losing any money from the Saudis.

Of course, I am referring to the brutal and abhorrent murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Istanbul Consulate of Saudi Arabia.

So when Khashoggi goes into the consulate, which is Saudi territory, he is held without his will or kidnapped, for hours, until 15 Saudi thugs arrive.  One rogue among them, supposedly, overwhelms the other 14 highly dangerous Saudi enforcers, and kills Khashoggi.  Instead of reporting this to the police, the rogue agent forces the consulate staff to be silent for weeks, and lie that Khashoggi left the consulate.  He then forces the other 14 thugs to fly all of them back to Riyadh, where he knows he will stand trial and be beheaded for his crimes.  Yeah, that’s the ticket.  This only makes sense in Trump’s head, full of the other 6,000 lies which he has told since he has been in office.

You knew from Trump’s first comment, that Khashoggi was not a citizen, and only a green card holder, and not in the country, and balanced by an imaginary $110 billion mound of Saudi cash, that the scales of justice were taking a nose dive to weaseldom. 

First of all, the Saudis are experts at indenturing Trump by emoluments with events at Trump’s D.C. tower.  They also bailed out Trump’s 5th Avenue Tower, with high priced sales and rentals, which Trump even bragged about in a campaign speech, on tape, citing how he loved the Saudis because of the high prices they were paying.  Were Presidential emoluments a crime, we have the taped confession.

Trump is implying that the 14th Amendment’s equal protection under the law only applies to US citizens.  It doesn’t have that restriction, it applies to all who are in the US:  “nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”  Mr. Khashoggi has a green card, and has worked in the US starting in 2005 when he was an aide to the Saudi ambassador.  Jamal’s father was court physician to King Abdulaziz.  Another Khashoggi, Adnan, a billionaire arms dealer, sold his yacht to Trump in the 80’s.  The family comes from Turkey.  Recently, Jamal was a reporter for the Washington Post, and a media personality.

While the US now has a population of 329 million, about 22.1 million are not US citizens.  That is 6.7%.  Trump seems to be implying that green card holders, permanent residents, foreign students, tourists, and even the undocumented, are not protected by US laws and the Constitution.  They are.

This promise of looking into the crime and severe punishment is another Trump nothingburger.  How is his ban on bump stocks doing?  How about the fair investigation of Prof. Fords charges of Kavanaugh, which was very restricted in time and number of witnesses, and whose FBI report only had one copy, and the public will never know about?

Update:  if you think that I was stretching it in comparing the Kavanaugh case to this one, the President just said that they are similar.  I don’t think Kavanaugh appreciates that.

Trump has to believe what any world dictator tells him, that is that they cannot lie, so he can convince us that he is not a profound liar.

Trump has never met a dictator who he has not liked or now loved, and wished that he could have the same suppression of press criticism and lifetime appointment.  This is just more of the same. 

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

External iPad Keyboard Extra Symbols

External iPad Keyboard Extra Symbols

There aren’t directions that come with the keyboard for extra symbols, so I am elaborating them here.  I thank a helpful lady at the Apple store for clueing me in on how to generate them.  The following was typed on Pages, and then copied and pasted into WordPress.  I also checked that I could have entered them from the keyboard directly into WordPress.

Alt-key with regular keypad keys:

`¡™£¢∞§¶•ªº–≠`

Œ∑´®†¥¨ˆøπ“‘«

Åß∂ƒ©˙∆˚¬…æ

Ω≈ç√∫˜µ≤≥÷

Shift-Alt-key with regular keypad keys:

`⁄€‹›fifl‡°·‚—±

Œ„´‰ˇÁ¨ˆØ∏”’»

ÅÍÎÏ˝ÓÔÒÚÆ

¸˛Ç◊ı˜Â¯˘¿

Hold down cmd key, and cmd option table appears.  Includes, bold, italic, underline.

Press the Language Globe on the top or bottom row. Cycles through keyboards. Greek, without and then with capitals:

;ςερτυθιοοπ[]\

:΅ΕΡΤΥΘΙΟΠ{}|

ασδφγηξκλ΄’

ΑΣΔΦΓΗΞΚΛ¨”

ζχψωβνμ,../

ΖΧΨΩΒΝΜ<>?

Language Globe, Scientific:  Doesn’t activate from keypad, as far as I can tell.

Press top or bottom row Keypad Picture to toggle on and off the on-screen keypad.  Then globe symbol cycles through to added scientific keypad app.  The SciKey app is free, but symbols not lit up to choose from when I tried it.  These may be ones that I chose from my old iPad: 

Pressing the normal number key, and cycling through, gives:

αȳγℏ⁺⁻μπστ

½÷×+−=√

¹²³⁴⁵⁶⁷⁸⁹⁰. Superscripts.

ΑΒΓΔΕΛΜΠΣΩ

⅔/*><≉∛

₁₂₃₄₅₆₇₈₉₀. Subscripts

abdijnrxyz

¾∫∞→±≈∜

 

 

Posted in IPad Math Symbols | Leave a comment

Background Economics of Saudi Arabia

Background Economics of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has a population of 33 million.  Its GDP is $708 billion, but in purchasing power parity, PPP, it is $1.80 trillion.  Per capita income in PPP is $55,260.

The oil is owned by state owned Saudi Aramco.  Petroleum is 87% of budget revenues, 90% of export earnings, and 42% of GDP.  This is a country where oil really is King.

The labor force is 12.34 million.  There are 7.5 million foreign workers.  80% of the labor force is non-national.  Unemployment is 13%, but only 30%-40% of Saudi’s work or seek to do it.  Wikipedia does not cover how much of this is due to restrictions on women.  Services is 72% of jobs, industry is 21%, and agriculture is 7%.

Exports are $231 billion, of which, petroleum and its products are 90%.  To various countries, China is 13.6%, Japan 11.3%, India 10.7%, US 9.8%, South Korea 9.1%, Singapore 4.7%, plus 41% remaining.  So the US gets $22.6 billion of their exports.

Imports to Saudi Arabia are $137 billion, consisting mainly of machinery and equipment, food stuffs, chemicals, motor vehicles, and textiles.  The main importing countries are China 16%, US 15%, Germany 6.3%, Japan 5.3%, UAE 5%, South Korea 5%, plus 47% more.  So imports from the US are worth $20.6 billion.

All of these numbers change year to year.

Posted in Oil, Saudi Oil Imports, US Oil | Leave a comment