## In Philadelphia Train Crash, Energy and Centripetal Force 4.5 Times That for Speed Limit

In coverage of the tragic Philadelphia train crash, the news and public are amazed that the train’s speed is over twice of the limit for the curve being rounded.  The speed was 106 mph, and the speed limit was 50 mph.

The key physics phenomena involved, however, go like the square of the speed or velocity, and are a factor of 4.5 times greater than they would be at the speed limit!

Centripetal Force

The force needed to be supplied by the train tracks to hold the train on the curve is

F = m v^2 / r , where m is the mass of the part of the train being turned at that time, v is the velocity and speed, and r is the circular radius of that section of track.  So while the velocity was 2.12 times the speed limit, the square of the velocity and the centripetal force was 4.49 or about 4.5 times that that would be necessary at the velocity of the speed limit.

This 4.5 factor in the force would act to straighten the railroad tracks at the bend.  What acts sooner is the fact that the railroad tracks are applied at the bottom of the train, and not opposite its center of mass.  So they act as a tripping step, and the train tips over instead.

Kinetic Energy

The kinetic energy of the entire train is proportional to the train’s velocity squared.

K. E. = 1/2 M v^2 , where M is now the mass of the entire train, and v the velocity of the train.

Here again, the kinetic energy is 4.5 times that which the train would have had if it were obeying the speed limit.  All of that energy will be dissipated as the train comes to a stop.  Train cars sliding on the ground, running into each other, deformations of the cars, and objects and passengers slamming into the train car would be absorbing the energy.

Prevention of Accidents

Apparently, the fact that Amtrak is losing money and Congress is cutting still more is slowing the automatic train stopping system, even in the most traveled Eastern corridor.

Its odd that I have a $100 GPS monitor in my car that turns the speed indicator red every time I exceed the speed limit for whatever road I am on. Connecting that to an alarm would awaken a drowsy operator, or catch the attention of one being distracted by anything else. Hooked to a smart phone on a smart phone, it could automatically call train dispatchers. This could take away a lot of incidents of train crashes. It probably the budget of Amtrak, but every airplane carrying 250 people has to have a co-pilot. Until the track braking system is installed, this should be instituted in trains carrying lots of passengers. Posted in Physics and Crashes | Leave a comment ## Building Partnerships for Ocean Health in Southern California Building Partnerships for Ocean Health in Southern California is a conference in the “Toward a Sustainable 21st Century Series”, presented May 8, 2015, at the Beckman Center for the National Academies, at UC Irvine. Morning Session: Our Changing Ocean Unfortunately, I arrived late and missed the Welcome by Al Bennett, Vice Provost. Global Change in the Oceans I also missed the introduction by Adam Martiny: UCI Earth System Science Department (ESS) and Director of the UCI OCEANS Initiative. Keith Moore: ESS He used the CESM community climate model to project to the future. The RCP 8.5 projection has an increased average solar radiation of 8.5 Watts per square meter at the year 2100. This is the projection with the “business as usual” increase of CO2. In the projection RCP 4.5, CO2 turns over by 2050 and stabilizes by 2100. The sea surface temperature rise in RCP 8.5 is 4 degrees C. Most of the heat of increased solar radiation or “forcing” goes into the ocean, which has only increased it temperature by 0.2 degrees C since the heat travels downward in the ocean, and has now spread to around 700 meters, or about a half of a mile. (The Sea Surface World Temperature average (SST) has risen about 0.7 degrees C. The land temperature has risen even more.) He showed that ocean photosynthesis decreases 5.7% in RCP 8.5 after a century. Sinking carbon in the ocean, which is part of the ocean’s absorption of a third of new CO2, decreases by 13% in RCP 8.5. This depends on location in the ocean, and there is a 50% reduction in photosynthesis in the North Atlantic, with an expected decline in fish. In California, upwelling may avoid this decline. There also would be an oxygen concentration decline in the oceans. Biological Impacts in the Coastal Zone Travis Huxman of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology He is the Faculty Director of the Sustainability Initiative. He noted the Center for Environmental Ecology, the Nature Reserve of Orange County, and the Crystal Cove Alliance. Cascade Sorte: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology She discussed the effects of global change on local communities, and the takeover by invasive species in the coastal ocean areas. She worked in Bodega Harbor where there has been a one degree increase in ocean temperatures. There was a 90% decline in blue mussels in the gulf of Maine. There has been an 80% decline in California mussels at Crystal Cove. She was asked if this was related to the Sea Star decline locally? Mussels feed sea stars and birds. Mussels are a Foundation species. Dynamics of Our Changing Coastal Ocean Brett Sanders: Civil and Environmental Engineering CEE He discussed El Niño and water quality. A UCI study of air pollution from diesel trucks from the port of Los Angeles led to regulations and a 90% reduction of smog on the 710 freeway in Long Beach. They showed that small drains slow runoff that leads to polluted water by the drains. There has been local coastal flooding in 2005 and 2011. They have made a FloodRISE model and mapping that gives them a predictive capability. Kristen Davis: CEE Coral reef bleaching is predicted for 2015. It results from rising ocean temperatures. Some coral reefs are just at the edge of the critical temperature. NOAA puts out a coral bleaching prediction. Corals seem to be getting hardier. Large internal waves vary temperature, pH, oxygen and salinity. She worked at the Dongsha Atoll, and watched bleaching vary with area. She used a distributed temperature sensing cable. This uses Raman backscattering in a fiber optic cable. There can be 10 degree temperature changes in large internal waves. She uses this in Southern California in a cable stretching up to 10 km from shore. Role of Local Communities in Coastal Science Dave Feldman: Planning, Policy and Design He is the director of Water UCI, another important UCI Initiative. Initiatives involve research and collaborative interactions across a full spectrum of fields that can study an important civil problem. He summarized that “The Translation of Science to the public leads to Transformation.” He pointed out that in coastal flooding, more lives have been lost than from earthquakes In climate variability, there is sea level rise leading to a rise in pressure on sea walls, which is extended by tides and rainstorms. There is the social impact of tropical cyclones on insurance policies and risk. Designers have to work to reduce flooding risk when building projects. Water pollution is also a concern. There is also risk from the Sacramento levy system. Another concern is flooding and environmental justice, which may relate to damage caused to people living on river deltas. Flooding is a technological and natural hazard. Valery Olson: Environmental Anthropology She has studied the Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem as a Sociocultural Object. She interviewed families in the Gulf, and found that they were involved in both the fishing and oil industries in the Gulf. She interviewed scientists involved in the restoration phase from the Gulf Oil Spill and could see a new outlook arising from that. Angela Mooney D’Arcy: Executive Director, Sacred Places Institute for Indigenous Peoples She is an Environmental Lawyer for the local Native American Community. She pointed out that there were 200 tribal organizations in California. After the Gold Rush, the newcomers wouldn’t deal with the tribes. One third to one half of the tribes relied on the coast. The Native Americans were here from ten to twenty thousand years. They had Nations that traded and survived. They had an Environmental knowledge of the area. In their religious beliefs, they are Stakeholders arising from the creator, and want to be regarded as such. Local communities are critical in science endeavors. Their role needs to be reciprocal rather than extractive, and they should be involved in the science or at least receive the results of the science. | Leave a comment ## Fixing the Cloud Problem in Climate Change Models, a Talk by Michael Pritchard This is a brief summary of a talk by Prof. Michael Pritchard, Department of Earth System Science in the Physical Sciences Breakfast Lecture Series of the School of Physical Sciences, on May 5, 2015. Michael Pritchard was introduced by Dean of Physical Sciences Ken Janda, who noted that Michael had received an Early Career Research Program Award from the Department of Energy. The video of this talk will appear on the School of Physical Sciences website. I just give a capsule summary here. Prof. Pritchard has developed a cloud resolving model down to 1-2 km resolution to enhance the Global Climate Models. The present models have a missing weather pattern, they rain too easily, and there are problems with the daily cycle. The IPCC projections have hugh error bars, with a 2.1 to 4.7 degree C range. He uses a multi-scale modeling framework on a Kraken computer, of which he uses 10,000 processors. He recreates the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical weather pattern that proceeds over 30-60 days, of calm, then high convection and rain, then calm again. The pattern moves from West to East. There are competing theories for this. He adds to the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to make it the CAM Super Parametrized Model (SPCAM). It has realistic MJO mesoscale convection systems. The length of inclusion is an 128 km storm length. The small scale is insensitive to the MJO. At the Orange County latitude, we are at the down part of the Hadley cell circulation from the equator or tropics. The down part is dry air that keeps us dry. Updating predictions of climate change, he finds that the MJO is sensitive to climate change, and would occur 10% more frequently with a century of climate change. For Bangladesh, which is largely a river delta, monsoons can bring a 1.5 meter sea level rise, that floods a major part of the delta. Mesoscale convective complexes form at nighttime and deliver half of summer rain. When this is modeled, he gets more extreme rainfall in SPCAM. There is a 7% rise in rainfall per degree C rise in average Sea Surface Temperature predicted by Global Climate Models. The Marine Layers act as a huge planetary mirrors, since they reflect solar radiation, as seen by their very bright whiteness from above. They occur in Southern California, and off of the West Coasts of Peru and Africa. They act to cool the planet. They are called Marine stratocumulus clouds. They are very sensitive to, for example, emissions from ship traffic. Expanding Marine cloud mirrors lower the planetary temperature rise. To approximate low cloud physics he needs to include that they are controlled by 20m x 250 m eddies. He includes these by using periodic boundary conditions in connecting many identical cells. This makes the simulation scalable to larger sizes. While Kraken has 130,000 processors, newer computers will be Stampede with 500,000 processors, and Titan with 300,000 processors. They also include Intel M.I.C combined processors, and Graphical Processing Units (GPU) by Intel with lower prices and high speed. The new computers will allow simulations with 32 km wide and 0.25 km (250 meter) vertically simulations. He received a question on how to measure the atmosphere with small scales. Satellites can measure the vertical liquid sum of water beneath them. This sum can then be compared to simulations. The model can test brightness and then weather. Another question was “Is the Marine layer shrinking?” There is not enough data to tell this. He was asked to recommend a starting book on the subject. He said Dave Randall has a book (Atmosphere, Clouds and Climate, which is part of the Princeton Primers in Climate, now in paperback). Randall will have a new textbook coming out this year. He was asked about who was working on geoengineering, and recommended Steve Davis in Earth System Science. He also mentioned work on injecting nucleating particles for making more clouds. Posted in Climate Change, Solar Energy | Leave a comment ## Talk by UC Irvine Chancellor Howard Gilman to the Retirees Association This is a partial account of UCI Chancellor Howard Gilman’s talk to the Retirees Association on May 5, 2015. (My low speed of taking notes on the iPhone allow me to present only some of the numbers that he stated, and very little of the great content of the talk about UC Irvine’s future. This is not an official university publication, so consider that numbers may be in error or not fully described. ) The Bright Past part of the talk. UCI now has 41 members of the National Academy of Sciences. It also has 33 members of the Academy of Arts and Sciences. We were again ranked the top public university in the United States under 50 years of age, for the fourth year in a row. Since we celebrate turning 50 this year (founded in 1965), we now have to be compared to all other universities. Our Law School is now accredited and has had the finest launch under Dean Chemerinsky. We have attained a top 30 ranking in law schools. Better though, we are the seventh most influential law school in publications. We are engaging all the students in “Luminations” in art and culture events. We now have 31,000 students. Our popularity grew to 88,792 freshman applications this year, and increase of 7.7%. We also had a 7% increase in African American students, and an increase in Latino student applications. It was the second best increase in Latino student applicants among UC campuses. Half of our students are the first in their family to go to college. We educate more low income students than the entire Ivy League. In reaching to our Brilliant Future, we are engaging in inter-school collaborations. Among these are UCI Water, and UCI Ocean. We want UCI to make a difference at the global level. The campus should grow to 40,000 students. We should explore new modes of teaching. UC Irvine now gives more on-line credits than the other UC campuses combined. Some Master’s programs may be on-line. Students are able to watch lectures at more convenient times than class times UCI should at the same time increase its research by increasing its research funding. We currently get$300 million a year for research funding, despite tight federal funding.

We should increase the impact of our work to society.  We need new models for new programs.  We receive $78 million in philanthropy, and should be able to bring in more funds in this high entrepreneurial region. Chancellor Gilman has a$200 million goal for private funding.  The place to look for idealistic and commuted people for human progress is at universities.

UC Tuition

In an answer to a question on the high cost of tuition (about $12,000 a year), Chancellor Gilman stated that our tuition is much loser cost than private universities. The reason for the tuition increases is a lack of state support. Half of a billion dollars has been taken out of the systems budget. It is as if the system added another UCLA and UC Berkeley without an increase in funding. Most students don’t pay the sticker price of full tuition. More than half don’t pay anything if their family income is below eighty thousand a year. Those with family incomes above$167,000 pay the full rate.  The average student debt on graduations is $19,000. Forty percent of our students are from low income families. We have the best system for low income students. Our system is better than what the federal system will propose. An audience comment was that we should raise funds for a building for the school of law. The same commenter asked us to consider more medical services on campus. The Chancellor answered that the Affordable Care Act would lead to us getting a bigger footprint across Orange County. We will partner with Primary Care doctors. There may be a clinical eye institute on campus. We should examine what other clinical space there may be. Human health and wellbeing are among the most important work being done. Biomedical sciences will be coupled with engineering and physical sciences for work in this area. When asked about assistance to the middle class, he said that Sacramento is providing middle class scholarships. Foundations are providing assistance in STEM areas. After the talk, the Retirees Association took a group picture of the campus founders that were present. Since the campus started in 1965, fifty years ago, they now consider founders as those that arrived in the sixities. Here is my iPhone portrait of the group. Posted in UC Irvine, University Funding | Leave a comment ## California’s Four Year Drought Here are graphs that show the extent of California’s four year drought. California Snowpack We start with the snowpack which is essential to supply water as it melts over the summer. You can see that in 2012 and 2013 it was less than 50% of normal, and in 2014 and 2015 it is practically nil. Yet the graph also shows something hopeful. The length of periods around 50% or lower is generally just a few years. There was one drought before this period that did last nine years, however. So hopefully this one will end soon. There is not an established opinion of climate scientists that this is caused by global warming. But there is a warm ocean “blob” off the coast of Oregon and Washington that has been around for two years, and may be causing the high pressure that diverts tropical storms, and warms the air over the Sierras to reduce snow. We’ll see if that persists. California Precipitation California is expecting low total precipitation for the 2015 water year ending in Sept. 30, 2015. Colorado River Water Measured as Inflow to Lake Powell Since the Colorado River Aqueduct brings water to Southern California, we are concerned by drought in the Colorado Basin and Lake Powell Inflow. California gets 27% of Colorado River Water. California State Water Project Allocations We see that in 2013, the State Water Project Allocation was down to 35%, and in 2014, it was a mere 5%. For 2015, the allocation has risen to 20%. The State Water Project provides part of the water for 25 million Californians. California Major Reservoir Current Conditions for April 28, 2015 The Orange shows the Reservoir Capacity in Thousands of Acre-Feet (TAF), the Blue the storage level on April 28. The Red line is the Historical Average level for all April 28ths. Below the Reservoir is the percentage of total capacity in Blue, and the percentage of Historical Average for the date in Red. We see the three large Northern California Reservoirs are about 1/2 full, as well as San Luis and Don Pedro. The others are pretty low or of low capacity. Posted in California Water, Climate Change, Irvine Water | Leave a comment ## California Hydropower Has Dropped 60% in the Last Four Years California hydro-power has dropped enormously because of the drought. The lower water levels put less pressure at the intakes to the turbines, and they generate less power. At some minimal lake height, they wobble so much that they cannot operate. Hoover Dam on the Colorado at Lake Mead has been replacing its turbines to work at lower water levels than before. California hydro-power has dropped from 23% of state power down to only 7% of state power this year. It has dropped 60% in the last four years. Hoover Dam has dropped 25% in power since 2000. From tree ring studies, this is the fourth worse drought in California in the last 1,000 years. Fortunately, the Bonneville Power Plant on the Columbia River has remained steady since its origins is in Canada, outside the drought zone. ## IRWD Irvine Ranch Water District Sources, Use Reduction, and Rates Irvine Ranch Water District Water Sources in 2013: 22% Imported from State Water Project and Colorado River Aqueduct 31% Clear Ground Water (GW) 25% Recycled Water 19% Treated GW which is used in grounds and buildings In 2015, IRWD had been using 23% imported, but must now cut that percentage by 3% to 5% of the total water use, since the Metropolitan Water District of Orange County has to reduce its imports by 15%. Ground water cost$454 per acre-foot, and imported water is much more expensive at $1,000 per acre-foot. Even more expensive would be desalinated water at about$2,000 per acre-foot.  However, water savings through conservation and efficiency is estimated to cost only $150 per acre-foot. The Michelson Recycled Water plant has a 24 million gallon per day (mgd) output which is currently 100% used. It has been raised to 28 mgd, and is planned for expansion to 33 mgd by 2025. IRWD Water Use Reduction Irvine has reduced its residential per capita water usage from 96 gallon/day in July 2014 to 69 gallon/day in January 2015, a 28% reduction. Outdoor water can be 65% of residential water usage. The IRWD outdoor program is called Rightscape and has three parts: (1) right drought resistant plants, (2) right watering schedule, and (3) right equipment with a weather based irrigation controller. The recommended watering schedule is to water before 8 AM, and for grass in January, water for 2 days a week for 2 cycles of 2 minutes. For grass in July-August-September, water for 4 days of 3 minutes in 3 cycles. The IRWD does not have any restrictions on which days you can water, or how many days a week you water. Conservation is built into the rate structure. In Irvine, the IRWD requirement is a reduction of 16% in usage of potable water by the end of February 2016. One strategy might be to reset your sprinklers according to the recommendations, and see if that reduces your outdoor water use by at least 16%, and maybe the full 32% needed if outdoor watering is 50% of your water use, and you don’t want to reduce indoor use. By not imposing the requirement until February 2016, they are really protecting your lawn during the hot summer. Indoors, a 16% reduction is only a 1/6 reduction. You can set your dishwasher on economy, and your washing machine on a slightly reduced load. Running water for anything at 1/6 (or more) less flow will easily get you the small savings needed. IRWD Water Rates With the factor of two increase in cost for imported water over ground water, the IRWD rates are already approved as an Allocation Based Conservation Rate Structure, as required by the new court ruling. That is, charging more for excessive use has been approved for IRWD. There is a variable Standard Water Allocation based on whether you live in an apartment, an attached home condo, or a single family home, and on the number of residents in the home. For use up to the allocation, the rate averages to$1.16 per hundred cubic feet of water, called a ccf. For volume up to 30% over the allocation, the rate is $3.91 per ccf. For volume between 30% and 60% over the allocation, the rate is$6.22 per ccf.  For volume more than 60% above the allocation, the rate soars to $12.60 per ccf, or 11 times the average up to the allocation. The base allocation depends on your dwelling type and typical yard associated with it. It is 50 gallons per day per person for the number of persons, and then increased for typical yard size. Below is a Map of the Orange County Water District (OCWD) (Ringed in Black) and the IRWD in Green. Posted in California Water, Irvine Water | Leave a comment ## Orange County Water Agencies Restrictions for February 2016 From the OC Register, we have copied for inclusion with the set of articles, the new targets for Orange County water agencies to be in force by the end of February 2016. New targets for O.C. water districts  Supplier Name new % previous % Santa Ana 12% 20% La Habra Public Works 28% 35% Moulton Niguel Water District 20% 25% Irvine Ranch Water District 16% 20% Newport Beach 32% 35% Seal Beach 8% 10% Brea 24% 25% Buena Park 24% 25% El Toro Water District 24% 25% Laguna Beach County Water District 24% 25% Santa Margarita Water District 24% 25% South Coast Water District 24% 25% Anaheim 20% 20% Fountain Valley 20% 20% Huntington Beach 20% 20% Westminster 20% 20% East Orange County Water District 36% 35% Golden State Water Co. (Cowan Heights) 36% 35% Serrano Water District 36% 35% Yorba Linda Water District 36% 35% Fullerton 28% 25% Garden Grove 28% 25% Golden State Water Co. (Placentia) 28% 25% La Palma 28% 25% Orange 28% 25% San Clemente 28% 25% San Juan Capistrano 28% 25% Tustin 28% 25% Golden State Water Co. (West Orange) 24% 20% Mesa Water District 24% 20% Trabuco Canyon Water District Posted in California Water, Irvine Water | Leave a comment ## California Water Projects Feeding Southern California Map of California Water Projects The California State Water Project (SWP) This section is taken from the Wikipedia article on the CSWP or SWP, but specialized to the path of the water to Southern California. The SWP has 5.75 million acre-feet of storage. In a normal year it has 2.4 million acre-feet per year of water delivery. The energy used to do this is 11,500 giga watt hour (GWh) of which 6,500 GWh are supplied by the project. The California aqueduct carries between 1-3.7 million acre-feet per year southward. From the aqueduct the West Branch goes through Pyramid and Castaic lakes. That carries 537,000 acre-feet per year. The Colorado River Aqueduct The Colorado River Aqueduct was built in the depression era to bring Colorado River water to the Southern California area. It runs 242 miles from Lake Havasu to the east side of the Santa Ana mountains. It is managed by the Metropolitan Water District. It carries 1.2 million acre-feet per year. California gets 27% of the output of the Colorado River. The Los Angeles Aqueduct This can supply half of the water for Los Angeles. It takes water from the Owens Valley and Owens River. It was developed by William Mulholland, and is run by the LADWP. It ends at the Upper Van Norman Lake. The Lower Owens River is now rewatered, and 40-50% of the water is used for ecological resources. It used to supply 480,000 acre-feet/year. According to one source, LA now uses 50% MWD water, and only gets 13% from the Aqueduct. The Central Valley Project This is a federally funded project to deliver water to the Central Valley. It usually delivers about 7 million acre-feet per year, mostly for Agriculture. The State has just dropped supplying water to junior water rights users. Proposals for New Water Projects One proposals for what could be built to add more water is the Peripheral Canal to take water from the Sacramento River, bypassing the Delta. That would provide 1 million acre-feet mostly to the Central Valley, and also to Silicon Valley and Southern California. Tunnels under the Delta would provide safety against Delta dike ruptures causing earthquakes. The cost of that is estimated to be$25 billion to $30 billion. Delta farmers say it is cheaper to strengthen the dikes, and that they are earthquake safe. The other proposal is the Sites Reservoir in Sacramento Valley which would hold 1.8 million acre-feet of water, which could supply 470,000 to 640,000 new acre-feet of water a year. Proposition 1 passed in November 2014 will give$7.5 billion to water projects.

Normal Water delivery by California Water Projects:

(Excerpted from Wikipedia)

• Central Valley Project (federal). Delivers about 7 million acre-feet (MAF) per year. Constructed in 1930s – 1950s.
• State Water Project (state). Delivers about 2.3 MAF / year. Constructed in 1960s – early 1970s.
• All-American Canal (local). Delivers 3 MAF / year. Constructed in 1930s
• Colorado River Aqueduct (local). Delivers 1.2 MAF / year. Completed in 1941
• Los Angeles Aqueduct (local). Delivers 200,000 AF / year. Completed in 1913.
• Mokelumne Aqueduct (local). Delivers 364,000 AF / year. Completed in 1929. Second aqueduct completed in 1949.
• San Francisco Hetch Hetchy Project (local). Delivers 330,000 AF / year. Completed in 1923.