Renewables Goal for California in 2020

California has just passed a new renewables goal which is now a law.  For 2020, the state requires an overall renewables of 33%.  The current standard is for 20% renewables for 2010.  I have several thoughts about renewables from the viewpoint of reducing CO2 to fight global warming:

  • To lessen CO2 emissions, the real question is how much clean energy you are using.  This includes large hydro and nuclear power.  These sources are not included under renewables.  I think the reason is that environmental programs formed initially with goals of conservation of nature, opposed dams, and also feared nuclear power.
  • For a while, since nuclear power was pollution free, some of their leaders were reconsidering their stance on rejecting nuclear power.  After the Fukushima catastrophe, one should distinguish between reactors near oceans and earthquake faults, from the vast majority that won’t be subject to these hazards.
  • So renewables are wind, solar, waves and tides, small hydro, and geothermal.  All of these are also partly opposed in siting and power lines by the same conservation groups as well as new groups or NIMBYs that are directly affected.
  • Another factor left out is the fluctuating nature of wind and solar power.  In engineering, this is called the capacity factor.  Fluctuating wind means the yearly average power delivered by a wind turbine is about 1/3 of the maximum power rating of the wind turbine at the maximum effective wind speed, which is the rating quoted in the newspapers.  For solar power, the day-night cycle, yearly cycle in the sun’s height, and weather result in the yearly average power being only 1/5 of the maximum rated and quoted power.  Solar power also needs washing of mirrors or solar panels with water that is scarce in the desert.  Solar reflector plants that generate steam for steam turbines, also need water for cooling as do all other power plants, which again is scarce in the desert.
  • Because of the fluctuating nature, renewables have to be backed up by natural gas plants to cover the low power intervals in the fluctuations.  Gas is also needed for night time power without solar.  California peak power is actually not at midday where solar is strongest, but about 5 pm, when power is being used both commercially and at home.
  • Dams may be left out of renewables, but they are not going to be turned off as we hope coal will be, and they are not subject to 20 year extensions.  They are hard to dismantle.  They also often serve agricultural uses and allow cities to be built on rivers without being flooded.
  • This increase of 13% in renewables by 2030 has to somehow weave in the following:
  • there will be an 8 % increase in the California population by 2030,
  • if any nuclear plants will not be extended for earthquake potential, the four coastal reactors contribute about 13% of the states’ electricity,
  • and there is a program to subsidize and encourage electrical vehicles.
  • Los Angeles (LADWP), which is probably not directly covered, still gets 44% of its power from coal, and serves about 1/5 of the states population.  While it will have its own renewables goal for 2020, it looks like it is not going to reduce its out of state coal usage until just before that, with some continuing afterwards.  The coal derived electricity is delivered at only 3-5 cents per kWh.
  • On the other hand, looking at clean energy as a whole, LADWP is at 30%, and SC Edison is at 38%.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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