February Primaries’ Effects on Other State Primaries

From the viewpoint of the California voter, where we have the most delegates in both party’s primaries, and share the next to the last primary date, it is insulting that so much of the candidate’s time and money is being expended in the four February primaries. We will first discuss many of the effects of the February primaries that influence and affect the choices the voters in the other states have.

Then we will bore you with the data on delegates from the four February states, and then from the leading delegate states.

While caucuses are still somewhat democratic, they are not as clearly democratic and private as primaries are.

The inequity and inquisition of the February primaries.

California, the largest state with 12% of the US population, had 13.5% of the Democratic delegates, and 7.2% of the Republican ones, since Republicans have not done as well in the state due to their very conservative state nominations. The four states in the February primaries or caucuses have only 4.6% of the Democratic delegates, and 5.6% of the Republican delegates. California has three times the Democratic delegates of the February primary states. In a naive proportional system of campaigning over say a year, the 1/20 th of delegates in the February states would warrant 18 days of campaigning, and that fraction of the political ads. Instead, the February states get about nine months of campaigning and a significant amount of the campaign funds.

The number of delegates reflects also the number of voters in the February states, which is again an overplay to only about 5% of the voters.

The incredible attention to the February primaries completely ignores the 800 pound gorilla in the room.  Super Tuesday occurs on March 1!  The Democrats have 12 primaries or caucuses then, the Republicans 14.  The Democrats have 1,105 delegates in  play then, or 27.3%!  The Republicans have 689 delegates in play then or 28.9%!  That is, the Democrats and Republicans both have five times the delegates available on Super Tuesday as in the February primaries!   I assume all of the candidates and parties have big data programs and politically astute mathematicians working for them.  I guess that I must be really politically naive in just doing the math above.  Why don’t the candidates invest most of their early time in Super Tuesday states?  And why don’t the networks hold their early debates mostly in the Super Tuesday states?

Iowa and South Carolina are Republican states, while New Hampshire is a swing state and Nevada is a bell-weather state for the Presidential election.

The constant bombardment in the news with the state polls of the February states have psychological effects on voters in the national polls. They also weigh in on which of the Republican candidates get chosen for the main debate stage. They also somewhat determine who gets invited for the free TV interviews, which saves candidate’s campaign funds, and again influences a candidate’s national exposure.

Since the early states are so influential, donors have to contribute early. If a candidate fails in the early states, they are usually no longer funded, and disappear before even the larger or the majority of states with their different interests can weigh in.

In the now contentious debates and campaign appearances, there is an atmosphere reminiscent of inquisitions. Instead of campaigners informing the public of their qualifications and policies, the leading candidates are playing “Gotcha” and focusing on largely irrelevant issues for the country, in order to try to smear or disqualify fellow candidates. This also contributes to eliminating or marginalizing candidates before they get to the rest of the voters.

The early stands that candidates are forced to take in Iowa and other states are not representative of what a full spectrum of voters would like in future primaries or the general election. This means later inconsistencies, and moving into the political center as soon as they get the nominations.

California Voters will be neglected until the merry month of May. Except of course for frequent visits to the state to raise funds from very wealthy donors. This slants Californian’s influence to only the wealthy, which is a major concern since Citizens United, and the dominating influence of the Koch brothers.

Big city issues of New York and Pennsylvania are delayed to late April, and of California to June 7. These states are also states with leading environmental concerns, which includes climate change.

Leading Delegate States.

For overview, we point out that for the Democratic Convention, there are 4,047 delegates, of which 3,253 are pledged. For the Republican Convention, there are 2,380, of which 1,719 are pledged. The unpledged delegates are elected officials and party leaders.

The delegates in the February primaries or caucuses are:

Iowa:                     D: 52. R: 30,
New Hampshire: D: 32. R: 23,
Nevada:                 D: 43. R: 30,
S. Carolina:           D: 59 . R: 50.

Total of February states: D: 186. R: 133.

Percent of Total Delegates. D: 4.6%. R: 5.6%.

The leading states for delegates, with their percentages and primary dates are:

California:        D: 546, 13.5%. R: 172, 7.2%. June 7.
New York:        D: 291, 7.2%.    R: 95, 4.0%. April 19.
Texas:               D: 252, 6.2%.    R: 155, 6.5%. March 1.
Florida:            D: 246, 6.1%.     R: 99, 4.2%. March 15.
Pennsylvania: D: 210, 5.2%.     R: 71, 3.0%. April 26.

The five largest delegate states cited make up 38% of the Democratic delegates, and 25% of the Republican delegates. For the Democrats, each of the five largest states has more delegates than the four February states put together. For the Republicans, only California and Texas have more delegates than the four February states put together.

By just citing the leading states I do not mean to imply the other states are not important. The sum of delegates in all the other states than those in the February primary states is about 95% of the total.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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