Sanders’ Superdelegate Dreams

Sanders’ Superdelegate Dreams

Now that Secretary Clinton has beaten Sanders in the pledged delegate race, he has to get a large number of Superdelegates to win the nomination. Right now, Clinton has 2,203 pledged delegates, a lead of 375 over Sanders’ 1,828 pledged delegates.

There are 4,051 total pledged delegates and 714 Superdelegates, for a total of 4,765 delegates to the Democratic convention. Only 20 pledged delegates are left to be chosen, from the D.C. Primary on June 14. Clinton will probably dominate these. To win the nomination, half of the total 4,765 delegates, or 2,383, are needed.

Sanders then needs almost 2,383 – 1,828 = 555 Superdelegates to win, out of a total of 714 Superdelegates, or 77.7% of them.

Clinton has 574 Superdelegates, or 80.4%, and Sanders has 48, or 6.7%. Out of the total of 714 Superdelegates, there are only 92 left uncommitted, or 12.9%. Superdelegates are unpledged and can change their mind until they vote. But they are the Democratic office holders and the state party leaders, and are very much in the public eye, and committed to the Democratic cause.

If Sanders keeps his 48, or 6.7%, and adds the 92, or 12.9%, of the uncommitted, he starts with 140, or 19.6%. To get to the required 555, or 77.7%, he must get 415, or 58.1% of all Superdelegates left. They must all come from Clinton’s 574, or her 80.4%. The desired 415 out of 574 is 72.3%, which is how many of Clinton’s delegates must switch. People say it is hard to get any Superdelegates to switch.

So far, Trump has not attacked Sanders, in order to encourage a split among Democrats. That is why Sanders has done better in the polls against Trump than Clinton has. It is still seven weeks until the July 25-28 Democratic convention starts in Philadelphia. Either Trump’s vicious attacks against Clinton will take a toll, or they will only let Trump self-destruct. Even if the attacks lower Clinton’s numbers against Trump, selecting Sanders as the candidate will only set him up for Trump the Merciless to destroy him as well.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
This entry was posted in 2016 Primaries, Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply