A Possible Democratic Senate in 2017

A Possible Democratic Senate in 2017

So far, not much attention has been paid to the Senate races. There is a possibility that the disaffection in both parties could lead to a shift to a Democratic Senate. This is not a detailed state by state analysis, but just some possible results of the party splits.

For the Democrats, the Sanders’ split may still bring out new young enthusiastic Democratic voters. Many may vote for Clinton, following Sanders’ appeal. The rest may not vote for Clinton, but down ticket, they could add to the Democrats’ total. Minorities will turn out for Democrats since Trump has insulted them in his quest for the white, male vote. The recent disqualification of three State voter ID laws should lead to a higher minority turnout, but they will still have to fight long voting lines in their districts in those states.

Republicans face a split of those who will not vote for Trump, or for Clinton. Some may not turn out, others may not like the non-compromising Republicans in the Congress, and reject them, or at least not vote for them. Republican Senators in swing states will not have the advantage of their Presidential candidate campaigning with them, since they are staying at arms length from Trump. But the Republican VP candidate Mike Pence will be giving them backing. Some Republican voters may finally be fed up with the party that ignores the national majorities that back gay marriage, climate change mitigation, and reasonable gun control.

Regardless of the outcome of the Presidential race, a Democratic Senate may be in our future. If Trump gets elected, that could be a very helpful check and balance on his wilder ideas or more extreme Supreme Court justice nominations. If Clinton gets elected, that could result in excellent justices without litmus tests, as is the case with Obama’s current nominee.

In any case, with 100 days left, expect turbulent surprises and more Russian interference, which is not denounced by Trump, as it should be.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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