CAFE Fuel Economy Standards: Now and In the Future
The current CAFE standards (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) and their increases are good through 2021. For 2022 to 2025, they are under review by the Trump Administration, and their decision is required by April, 2018. A speculated possibility is that they may freeze them at 2021 levels. In reality, the fleet average consumption will be determined by how many fuel-efficient vehicles consumers will buy.
The Obama Administration set a target of 54.5 mpg by 2025. This was done in consultation with industry over what future technologies could achieve. We note that the present Prius hybrid technology has 50 mpg city and 45 mpg highway, with the range of any gasoline engine auto. The 2025 goal is now at 51.4 mpg or 49.7 mpg (depending on source), because roughly half of sales are SUVs and small trucks. The actual fleet average achieved was only gong to be 43 mpg, and that is now reduced to 36 mpg or 40 mpg, depending on the source.
In January, the EPA estimated the standards would cost $875 per vehicle, with a fuel savings of $1,620 over the vehicle’s lifetime. The industry Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers estimated the cost of the standards at $1,249.
The present goal for 2021 models is 41 mpg. If the EPA freezes the goals at 2021, I haven’t yet seen a number for what the actual average will be. Even with a goal freeze, as time goes by the actual fleet purchases may move closer toward the goal, even without the present 2025 goal. California and 11 other states had their own goals that were merged with the Obama Administration goals. If they are given a national waiver, they plan to pursue the present goals. Some will sue the Trump administration if national goals are changed. By itself, the smoggy cities of California will hopefully raise their public conscience and start carpooling as well as buying more fuel-efficient vehicles.
California also has requirements for auto manufacturers to make a number of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) available for sale here. The total for 2016 was 2.0 million, led by Toyota, Honda, GM, and Ford.
Automated Vehicles is a technology that may increase mileage even with the 2021 vehicle mix. Another technology to achieve better mileage is variable compression engines. We already have cylinder shutdown engines.
Hybrid vehicles achieve better mileage through more efficient electric engines, running the charging gas engine at a constant peak efficiency level, more efficient transmissions, lighter weight materials to reduce road friction, and aerodynamic design to lower air friction.
In Europe, England, France, Norway, and possibly Germany will ban the sale of gas or diesel vehicles by 2040. Volvo plans to go all electric and hybrid starting in 2019. Mercedes-Benz will make electric or hybrid versions of all of its models by 2022. Volkswagen will do the same by 2030. By 2025 they will offer 80 new electric vehicles including sub-brands Audi, Bentley, and Bugatti. Europeans will obviously have to expand electricity generation, and the cleanliness of their electricity sources will determine how much emission savings will occur.
Because of the extreme city smog in China, they will be making effectively 10% electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles. Their 2020 fleet average is 5 liters per 100 km, which inverts to 47.3 mpg, almost matching our 2025 goals.
We will update this topic when the new standards come out.
