More on the Solar Cell Tariff

More on the Solar Cell Tariff

The most surprising thing about the Trump solar cell tariff is that the solar cells are not even made in China. The tariff actually applies to all countries because of this. Competitively, to make the cells cheaper, Chinese companies now make them in Southeast Asian countries, like Trump family products. This was in the New York Times today, from IHS Markit, Global Trade Atlas. Here are the leading countries and their shares of US solar imports for 2017: Malaysia 31%, South Korea 21%, Vietnam 14%, China 11%, Thailand 9%, and Mexico, 5%. These make up 91% of the imports. So instead of making one trade enemy with the Solar tariff, Trump has made six.  The tariff does not apply to Canada.

As many point out, not only does this cost the US 23,000 installation jobs, but these countries can place counter tariffs on US imports, costing more US jobs. Then, of course, Trump must counter attack. And so it goes (Kurt Vonnegut). We rapidly see that the goal of free trade is the only way to eliminate this, and that international trade is so complex, that you don’t want to pull a random string here or there. What is surely hurt is the climate, since solar cells and new washing machines are both fossil fuel saving devices.

The second surprising thing is that the cost of solar cells has sunk to an amazingly low 50 cents per Watt. This is why a 30% tariff on them starts out at 15 cents per Watt. After three years of 5% decrements, the tariff ends after the fourth year at 15%, or about 7.5 cents per Watt. Yet fully assembled and rooftop-installed solar panels now cost on average $3.17 per Watt. So the tariff is only a 5% increase in the cost of installed systems. A 5 kiloWatt rooftop system would cost $16,000 at that price, before the tariff.

Of course the size of the system depends on the type and therefore the efficiency of the solar cells, roof direction, mounting angle, and local average sunshine, called solar insolation. This is quoted in the US as the effective number of hours that the solar cells are receiving 1,000 Watts per meter squared of sunshine. A good number is 5, out of 24 hours. This is why the “capacity” of a solar system is called 1/5 of the maximum system rating.

The above long discussion is to help interpret the effect of the 2.5 GW or GigaWatt, or billion Watt exemption before the tariff takes effect. However, remember the 1/5 capacity factor makes this only 0.5 GW of solar power on average. In 2015, the US had a capacity of 440 GW, so the solar exemption amounts to 0.11% of US average power. At the end of 2016, the US had 40 GW of photovoltaic capacity. However, in the 12 months ending in Oct. 2017, utility scale solar only generated 1.3% of total US electricity.  Solar utility arrays that track the sun generate about 30% more average power than maximally oriented rooftop arrays.

We now look at solar insolation, which seriously affects the effect of solar systems in the Northeastern versus Southwest US, and therefore the costs of the respective systems for a given amount of solar power. In most of California and Texas there are effectively 5 hours of sunlight a day, while Arizona and New Mexico peak at about 5.5 hours. Chicago through the Northeast get 4.2 hours. Middle America through Florida get 4.5 hours.

By city, Los Angeles gets 5.4 hours, while San Francisco gets 4.89. Miami gets 5.26, Washington D.C. Gets 3.9, NY city gets 3.53, and Las Vegas gets 5.3, to follow Trump around the country. But for those solar enthusiasts who think that they are “off-the-grid”, the monthly averages are highly seasonal. In Los Angeles, Dec. has a minimum at 2.72, while June swelters at 7.62. Washington, D.C. Has a Dec. minimum at 1.79, and a June high of 5.88.

While the high solar summer insolation is great for power, the excess heat burns it all and more in air conditioning.  This brings us back to the great power of good construction in passive solar to minimize household solar heating.

In California, we badly need electric cars, charged with clean power.  Gov. Brown is considering upping the goal of Zero Emission Vehicles to 5 million.  In order to charge them with clean solar power, we need millions of daytime chargers at businesses and shopping centers.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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