The Probability of Science-Based Science Fiction Scenarios in the History of the Universe

The Probability of Science-Based Science Fiction Scenarios in the History of the Universe

Our thesis is that there are so many habitable planets, that essentially any scientifically allowable science fiction scenario will actually occur somewhere, sometime in the history of the universe.  It may not occur with humanoid intelligent life, but with some form of intelligent life, enough to make the key elements of the story feasible.

Of course, the standard movie and TV stories rely on some sort of faster-than-light warp drive to connect the interested protagonists.  In another article, I try to put that in the not-scientific category.

The stories are based on different types of society, life forms, technology, and interactions.  Writers can classify these into a finite choice of situations, and putting all combinations together is still a finite number of stories.  There are also only a finite number of writers, and a finite number of stories that they will write.  The restrictions of a limited number of publications can now be overcome with the internet, which is how I manage to write.

But the key point is that there may be on the order of 10^22 habitable planet systems on which these stories may someday take place.  There are 10^11 galaxies, and they seem to each contain 10^11 stars.  Most stellar systems seem to have planetary systems, and roughly one may be in a habitable zone.

For one thing, with this open time hypothesis, many of the factors in the Drake equation do not apply.  They relate to communicating with a communicating civilization that is present at the same time that we are present.  The Drake equation is based on timing, starting with R*, the average rate of star formation, which we don’t need.  It ends with fc, the fraction of civilizations that have developed communications, which are not needed in most ordinary novels, and may not be needed in many science fiction situations.  The Drake equation also ends with L, the length of time that signals are released.  For stories with very advanced civilizations, a lengthy development time is necessary, which we now recognize necessitates banning nuclear weapons, preventing destruction of the ozone layer, and preventing global warming.  Only some stories need the continuing communication.

The parts of the Drake equation that we need in our discussion are:  fp, the fraction of formed stars that have planets; nc, the average number of habitable planets; fl, the fraction of those planets that develop life; and fi, the fraction of those planets bearing life on which intelligent, civilized life, has developed.  (quoting Wikipedia).  Even if fp and nc are a tenth, that hardly chips away at the totality of stellar systems.  Fl is highly speculative.  Fi, though, is enhanced by the evolutionary advantages of useable “arms and fingers”, of large brains, of oral communications, and of cooperative social structures.  While humankind has taken billions of years to develop, our rapid rise to ascendancy over nature and the planet, both, indicate that Fi is more a matter of available evolutionary time, rather than inherent difficulties.

So, all scientifically feasible science fiction, or even science independent stories, become of interest as relevant ones, somewhere, sometime.

Our current US history of daily “you can’t make this stuff up” stories, which are often science denying, becomes apparently reality itself.

 

 

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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