June 15 Update on CA 48th Congressional District Primary

June 15 Update on CA 48th Congressional District Primary

The total ballots in Orange County are now 581,690, or 39.3% of registered voters.

The number of votes counted after Election Day is now 253,107, up 23,000 from yesterday’s 230,107. I don’t know where these votes came from, and it is isn’t explained on the registrar’s website. Is it late mail deliveries because of insufficient postage? The post office delivers them anyway.

There are 43,425 votes left to count, while there were 46,701 left to count yesterday. Of this amount, 42,269 are provisionals left, while only 3,231 have been counted so far.

Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has 49,654 votes, seemingly down from 49,926 yesterday. My presentation of numbers could have occasional mistakes.

Democrat Hans Keirstead has 28,373, up from 26,640 yesterday, by 1,733.

Democrat Harley Rouda has 28,038, up from 26,311 yesterday, by 1,727.

Republican Scott Baugh has 26,011, up from 24,614 yesterday, by 1,397.

Keirstead leads Rouda by 335 votes, up 6 from 329 yesterday. That change out of an increase of 1,733 votes is amazingly small, but also rare.

The total CA 48th vote count is now at 165,495, up from yesterday’s count of 153,287 by 12,208. The total is 28.5% of the Orange County total. Yet the daily increase is 53% of the after Election Day votes increase. Hence, it is hard to make predictions going forward.

There will also be a Saturday update.

One reflection on California’s long mail-in period, is that candidates have to deliver mailers and buy TV ads over that entire period in order to cover the interval where different people turn to their ballots.  This raises the cost to all leading candidates of each party.    Having so many leading candidates also raises the total contributions needed for the primaries, which could have been used in the General Election.  A unified party approach to the Primary would greatly increase the party’s chances for success.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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