June 18 Update for CA 48th Congressional District

June 18 Update for CA 48th Congressional District

Harley Rouda’s supporters will remember this day as Turnaround Day. Today, Democrat Rouda went ahead of Democrat Hans Keirstead by 40 votes, in the race for the number two spot in the Top Two General election ballot. The 48th has emerged from June Gloom to bright, sunny, blue ocean, high tide, and high surf days. A great district to represent.

Now for the dull data. The estimated total ballots left to count is 34,455, while 225,652 after Election Day ballots have been counted. These are mostly provisional ballots of an estimated 33,001 left to count, with 12,499 now counted.

The top four candidates now have the following votes:

Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has 52,013, a gain of 633 over Saturday, June 16.

Democrat Harley Rouda has 29,575, a gain of 397.

Democrat Hans Keirstead has 29,535, a gain of 243.

Republican Scott Baugh has 27,124, a gain of 284.

On June 16, Keirstead led Rouda by 114 votes. Rouda gained 397 over Keirstead’s gain of only 243. That gave Rouda a 154 boost, which covered the 114 Vote deficit and gave him a 40 vote lead.

I don’t know for sure the reason that provisional votes favor Rouda, but he seems to make steady gains in their counting.   Since we think that most provisional ballots are people who ordered mail-in ballots, but turned them in at polling places, they would have been most influenced by the end-games of the campaigns.  So it may be that more or better TV ads and mailers, and enthusiastic supporters making phone calls and household contacts, are showing their effects now.  If this plays out, then that will be a good asset in the General Election as well.

The total vote count in CA 48 is now 171,256, an increase of 2,106 over June 16.  There are still a lot to count.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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