October 7th for California Early Voting: The Orange County Races
There are several Republican House positions that are definitely in play in California, and early voting here starts October 7th.
One local race is California 48th, where for the third poll, Republican incumbent and 16 term Congressman Dana Rohrabacher is tied with Democratic challenger Harvey Rouda at 48%. The importance of this Oct. 4 poll is that the undecided has dropped to 4%, as opposed to an early September poll where they were tied at 45% with 10% undecided. This district covers the Orange County Coast.
The UC Irvine, Irvine, and Orange County district of California 45th is also very close. Democratic challenger Katie Porter is (Oct. 1 poll) leading Republican incumbent Mimi Walters by a very close 48% to 47%. This is actually a tightening of the race from the Sept. 25 poll of Porter leading 48% to 43%. These are polls of about 500 people with an error of about 5%.
These two potential House upsets are close. Every effort and vote is important.
The California 49th district covers the coast from Dana Point to almost San Diego. It was held by Darrel Issa, who barely won it in 2016. He is retiring. Now, Democrat Mike Levin is ahead of Republican Diane Harkey by 51% to 41% with 8% undecided.
Nate Silver’s http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com nationwide projection is that the chances that Republicans maintain control of the Senate is 78%, and that Democrats take control is 22%. For the House, the chance the Democrats take the house is 74%, and that the Republicans hold the House is only 26%.
