Research Areas

Current research projects

With Drew Baily and Tyler Watts, I am rethinking conclusions from a 2007 paper on school readiness. A draft paper is here

With Drew Bailey, Candice Odgers and Winnie Yu, I am trying to make sense out of the papers of fadeout and persistence of intervention effects. A draft paper is here. A revised version will soon be published in the Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness.

With a group of neuroscientists and developmental psychologists, I am developing a random-assignment evaluation of whether money matters for a child’s early years. A summary of the project is here

 

Publications from past research areas
Poverty and child development:

Ziol-Guest, K., Duncan, G., Boyce, WT and Kalil, A. (2012) Early Childhood Poverty, Immune-Mediated Disease Processes and Adult Productivity,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, Supplement 2, October 16, 2012, http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1203167109

Duncan, G. J., Ziol‐Guest, K. M., & Kalil, A. (2010). Early‐Childhood Poverty and Adult Attainment, Behavior, and Health. Child Development81(1), 306-325. doc

Duncan, G. J., Morris, P. A., & Rodrigues, C. (2011). Does money really matter? Estimating impacts of family income on young children’s achievement with data from random-assignment experiments. Developmental psychology,47(5), 1263-1279. pdf

Skill development:

My 2007 article on school entry skills is: Duncan, G. J., Dowsett, C. J., Claessens, A., Magnuson, K., Huston, A. C., Klebanov, P., … & Japel, C. (2007). School readiness and later achievement. Developmental psychology43(6), 1428-1446. pdf

A 2011 chapter with Katherine Magnuson extended this work to include later outcomes and skills measured across childhood:  Duncan, G. J. and Magnuson, K. The Nature and Impact of Early Achievement Skills, Attention Skills, and Behavior Problems” It is published in Greg J. Duncan and Richard J. Murnane (eds.), Whither Opportunity: Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children’s Life Chances, New York: Russell Sage, 2011, pp. 47-69. chapter

An accessible summary chapter of this work is: Duncan, G. J. (in press) The Importance of Kindergarten-Entry Academic Skills. In Gilliam, W., Barnett, S., & Zigler, E. (eds.) The Preschool Education Debates.  doc

Kowaleski‐Jones, L., & Duncan, G. J. (1999). The structure of achievement and behavior across middle childhood. Child Development70(4), 930-943. pdf

Methodology:

Duncan, G. J., & Gibson, C. (2000). Selection and attrition in the NICHD childcare study’s analyses of the impacts of childcare quality on child outcomes. Unpublished paper. Evanston, IL: Northwestern University(PDF) Among other things, this working paper provides an analysis of early attrition in the NICHD Study of Early Child Care. Other portions of it were included in: Greg J. Duncan and Christina Gibson-Davis “Connecting Child Care Quality to Child Outcomes: Drawing Policy Lessons from Nonexperimental Data”, Evaluation Review, Vol. 30, No. 5, October, 2006, pp. 1-20.

“Modeling the impacts of child care quality on children’s preschool cognitive development” (PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as: Duncan, G. J. (2003). Modeling the impacts of child care quality on children’s preschool cognitive development. Child development74(5), 1454-1475.

“The endogeneity problem in developmental studies” (PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as: Duncan, G. J., Magnuson, K. A., & Ludwig, J. (2004). The endogeneity problem in developmental studies. Research in Human Development1(1-2), 59-80.

“Neighborhoods and adolescent development: How can we determine the links?” (PDF) This paper appeared as: Duncan, G. J., & Raudenbush, S. W. (2001). Neighborhoods and adolescent development: How can we determine the links. Does It Take A Village, 105-136.

“Off with Hollingshead: Socioeconomic resources, parenting, and child development” (PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as:
Duncan, G. J., & Magnuson, K. A. (2003). Off with Hollingshead: Socioeconomic resources, parenting, and child development. Socioeconomic status, parenting, and child development, 83-106.

“The long and short of asking questions about income, wealth and labor supply” (PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as:
Duncan, G. J., & Petersen, E. (2001). The long and short of asking questions about income, wealth, and labor supply. Social Science Research30(2), 248-263.

“Qualitative/Quantitative Synergies in a Random-Assignment Program Evaluation” (PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as: Gibson-Davis, C., & Duncan, G. J. (2005). Qualitative/quantitative synergies in a random-assignment program evaluation. Discovering successful pathways in children’s development: New methods in the study of childhood and family life, 283-303.

Peer Effects:

Guo, G., Li, Y., Wang, H., Cai, Tianji, & Duncan, G. J. (2015). Peer Influence, Genetic Propensity, and Binge Drinking: A Natural Experiment and a Replication, American Journal of Sociology, 121(3), 914-954. http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/683224

Guo, G., Li, Y., Owen, C., Wang, H., & Duncan, G.J. (2015). A Natural Experiment of Peer Influences on Youth Alcohol Use. Social Science Research, 52, 193-207. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.01.002

Duncan, G. J., Boisjoly, J., Kremer, M., Levy, D. M., & Eccles, J. (2005). Peer effects in drug use and sex among college students. Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology33(3), 375-385. (PDF)

Boisjoly, J., Duncan, G. J., Kremer, M., Levy, D. M., & Eccles, J. (2006). Empathy or antipathy? The impact of diversity. The American Economic Review,96(5), 1890-1905. (PDF)

Residential Mobility Programs:

Link to articles and study materials for the Moving to Opportunity Experiment.

“Fifteen years later: Can residential mobility programs provide a long-term escape from neighborhood segregation, crime, and poverty?” (PDF)
A revised version of this paper was published as: Keels, M., Duncan, G. J., DeLuca, S., Mendenhall, R., & Rosenbaum, J. (2005). Fifteen years later: Can residential mobility programs provide a long-term escape from neighborhood segregation, crime, and poverty. Demography,42(1), 51-73.

Duncan, G. J., & Zuberi, A. (2006). Mobility lessons from Gautreaux and moving to opportunity. Nw. JL & Soc. Pol’y1, 110. pdf

Policy:

Duncan, G. and Magnuson, K. (2013) “Investing in Preschool Programs” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 27(2): 109-132 article appendix

Bos, H., Duncan, G. J., Gennetian, L. A., & Hill, H. D. (2007). New Hope: Fulfilling America’s Promise to Make Work Pay. pdf

“Effects of Welfare and Employment Policies on Young Children: New Findings on Policy Experiments Conducted in the 1990s” (PDF) This was published as:
Morris, P., Gennetian, L. A., & Duncan, G. J. (2005) Effects of welfare and employment policies on young children: new findings on policy experiments conducted in the 1990s. Social Policy Report 19(2).

“Child well-being in an era of welfare reform: The sensitivity of transitions in development to policy change” (PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as: Morris, P., Duncan, G. J., & Clark-Kauffman, E. (2005). Child well-being in an era of welfare reform: The sensitivity of transitions in development to policy change. Developmental Psychology41(6), 919.

“Policies to promote the healthy development of infants and preschoolers”(PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as: Duncan, G., & Magnuson, K. (2003). Promoting the healthy development of young children. One Percent for Kids, 16-39.

“Individual and parent-based strategies for promoting human capital and positive behavior” (PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as: Duncan, G., & Magnuson, K. (2004). Individual and parent-based intervention strategies for promoting human capital and positive behavior. Human development across lives and generations: The potential for change, 93-135.

Health:

“Optimal indicators of socioeconomic status for health research” (PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as: Duncan, G. J., Daly, M. C., McDonough, P., & Williams, D. R. (2002). Optimal indicators of socioeconomic status for health research. Journal Information,92(7).

“Cleaning up their act: the impact of marriage and cohabitation on licit and illicit drug use” (PDF) A revised version of this paper will be published as:
Duncan, G. J., Wilkerson, B., & England, P. (2006). Cleaning up their act: the effects of marriage and cohabitation on licit and illicit drug use. Demography,43(4), 691-710.

Autobiography:

“The PSID and me” (PDF) A revised version of this paper was published as: Duncan, G. J. (2002) The PSID and me. In Landmark Studies of the 20th Century in the U.S., ed. Erin Phelps, Frank F. Furstenberg, Jr. and Anne Colby, 133-63. New York: Russell Sage.

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