The 2015 fire season severity forecast for different regions within the Amazon was released today by UCI and NASA scientists. With El Nino-like conditions strengthening over the past winter and spring, fire risk in the eastern part of the Amazon, including Brazilian states of Para and Maranhao, is expected to be above average. In the western part of the Amazon basin, ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical North Atlantic have a stronger influence. Since the North Atlantic was not anomalously warm this past spring, the Peruvian Amazon and other areas in the west are expected not to have above average risk this year. Measurements of GRACE terrestrial water storage clearly show the east-west divide in moisture availability this year near the onset of the dry season!
A NASA news story provides additional information about this story, and describes the potential for increased fire risk in the spring of 2015 in the northern part of the basin. Link to NASA release.