In a paper published in November of 2017, Dr. Yang Chen describes how ocean teleconnections during El Nino create a predictable pattern of drought and fire across different tropical continents. The work draws upon the +20 year record of burned area and fire emissions developed by researchers working on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Tropical forest fires more than doubled during El Nino events, with burning in equatorial Asia during autumn (Sept-Oct.) followed by elevated fire emissions in Southeast Asia, northern South America, and Central America during winter and spring, and the southern Amazon during the following summer. Since fire responses unfold in a predictable cascade, this information may improve seasonal forecasting systems for fire risk, and allow for improvements in ecosystem management. Lead times were long in the southern Amazon where land-atmosphere moisture coupling introduced time delays between soil moisture anomalies and surface humidity responses, and in Australia, where precipitation impacts on fuel amount added an additional time delay between El Nino onset and decreases in fire activity. The paper was discussed in a article by Cosmos Magazine.