Important Dates: 

Project 1 Due: 4/15/2016

Test 1: 5/4/2016

Project 2 Due: 5/18/2016

Test 2: 6/1/2016

Final Project Due: 6/8/2016

 

Topic 1: Probability (Week 1)

Definition of probability, events, union, intersection, venn diagrams, mutually exclusive (disjoint), conditional probability, independence, Bayes rule, hypothetical hundred table

Topic 2: Study Design (Week 2)

Survey, experiment, observational study, common mishaps in sampling, randomization, block design, representative samples, stratified sampling, association vs. causation

Topic 3: Monte Carlo Methods/Simulation (Week 2-Week 10)

Simulation for combinatorics (week 2), probability (week 2), random variables (week 4), Bayesian estimators (week 5),  sampling distributions (week 6)

Topic 4: Summarizing Data (Week 3)

statistical graphics (using computer), tables, summary statistics, numeric variables, categorical variables, sample mean, sd, median, IQR, outliers, correlation, contingency tables, histograms, boxplots, bar charts, scatterplots, line of best fit (linear regression)

Topic 5: Random Variables (Week 4)

Discrete random variables, continuous random variables, probability using distributions,  expectation, mean of X, variance of X, quantiles of X,  normal, binomial, Bernoulli, exponential, gamma, beta, bivariate normal, other distributions as needed.

Topic 6: Bayesian Estimators (Week 5) With Guest Lecturer Fletcher Christensen! 

choosing a prior, posterior (for conjugate situations or using Bayes rule), credible intervals, posterior functionals as estimators

Topic 7: Estimators and Hypothesis Tests (Week 6 -Week9)

sampling distribution for small n, sampling distribution for a mean, sampling distribution for a proportion, CLT, t distribution, confidence intervals, hypothesis tests (one mean, two means, proportion, two proportions, test of slope in regression, chi squared, ANOVA), type 1 and type 2 error, multiple comparisons, spurious correlations, practical vs. statistical significance , pvalues, null and alternative hypothesis

Week 10: TEST 2 and FINAL PROJECTS