RAPID: Uncertain Risk and Stressful Future: A National Study of the COVID-2019 Outbreak in the U.S. (National Science Foundation SES #2026337, Roxane Cohen Silver, PI; E. Alison Holman and Dana Rose Garfin, co-PIs)
In December 2019, scientists identified a novel Coronavirus (COVID-2019) that was associated with an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, China and that was suspected of being zoonotic in origin. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic, and on March 13, 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency. Because individuals can transmit the illness prior to exhibiting symptoms (i.e., an ‘invisible threat’), and in the absence of a vaccine for protection, the severity of this crisis and the timing of containment in the United States is unknown. In the context of this uncertainty and ambiguity about the immediate future, the research team studies emotional (fear, worry, distress), cognitive (perceived risk), and behavioral (media use, health protective behaviors) responses to the COVID-19 outbreak and how these early responses shape outcomes over time. The scholars examine how widespread media coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak is associated with acute stress responses to the threat, its success (or failure) in affording people the information needed to understand the threat, and how cognitive and affective processes shape risk assessments, behavioral responses, and mental health outcomes. This project is unique in studying the effects of risk perceptions, health protective behaviors, and acute stress on adjustment as an ambiguous global health threat unfolds.
The research is a longitudinal study of 5,000 people from the AmeriSpeak panel, a probability-based nationally representative sample of U.S. households on whom, baseline, mental and physical health data have been collected prior to the start of the COVID-19 threat in the U.S. Two surveys administered over the next year examine respondents’ risk perceptions, fear, media use, health protective behaviors, and distress surrounding the outbreak. The sample is drawn using sample stratification to assure sample representativeness with respect to age, gender, race/ethnicity, and Census Region. For Wave 1, the drawn sample is randomly assigned to one of three nationally representative replicates (i.e., cohorts) that have non-overlapping data collection periods of 2 calendar weeks, for a total of a 6-week fielding period. Each cohort thus represents a representative sample whose interviews are generalizable to point-in-time survey estimates for the 2-week period to which the cohort is mapped. A second survey is fielded on the Wave 1 sample within the next year, as the crisis unfolds (or abates).
Overall, this study assesses risk perceptions, media use, acute stress, social norms, self- and response-efficacy, and protective behaviors at the start of an ambiguous and deadly domestic threat on a large representative sample with existing pre-threat mental and physical health data. This provides a unique opportunity to examine national responses to an ongoing public health crisis as it unfolds, producing research with both theoretical and practical importance. The team has five specific aims: 1) Estimate COVID-19-related media exposure, COVID-19 risk perceptions, trust in institutions managing (and communicating about) COVID-19, and behavioral and emotional responses to perceived COVID-19 threat; 2) Investigate how type (e.g., television, Twitter, online news), amount (e.g., total hours), and content (e.g., imagery) of COVID-19-related media coverage are associated with risk perceptions, and behavioral and emotional responses (e.g., acute stress, somatization, depression); 3) Examine how ambiguity of the COVID-19 threat and inconsistencies in official communications about this threat are associated with perceived risk, as well as emotional and behavioral responses; 4) Investigate whether prior exposure to individual (e.g., childhood violence) and collective (e.g., 9/11) stress are associated with COVID-19-related risk perceptions and behavioral and emotional responses to the COVID-19 threat; and 5) Contrast key theories of health behavior in an epidemiological sample responding to a current and evolving threat. We expect that information collected in this research will advance future conceptual work on coping with highly stressful events by furthering our understanding of the extent to which traditional and non-traditional media coverage of the Coronavirus outbreak may be affecting individuals’ risk perceptions and acute stress responses to it, providing information to facilitate early identification of individuals at risk for subsequent difficulties following potential public health crises, and explicitly integrating the stress and coping literature with the literature on risk analysis and perception.
This award reflects NSF’s statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation’s intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
RAPID: Compounding Crises: Facing Hurricane Season in the Era of COVID-19 (National Science Foundation SES #2030139, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, PI; Dana Rose Garfin, co-PI)
This Rapid Response Research (RAPID) grant provides funding to assess participants’ crisis exposure, their threat perceptions, their self- and response-efficacy, their emotional responses and their engagement in health protective behaviors as relevant to COVID-19 and to hurricanes. As the 2020 hurricane season commences, millions of Americans residing in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts will face the likely possibility of dual crises – COVID-19 and hurricane exposure – with competing mitigation strategies. Experts project that there will be four hurricanes that will develop into major hurricanes (Categories 3, 4, or 5) in the Atlantic during the 2020 hurricane season (June 1st – November 30th). Concurrently, many in the Atlantic and Gulf Coast states are seeing alarming increases in confirmed case of COVID-19. The confluence of crises in communities at risk for hurricane exposure may create an untenable and tragic situation where millions of people may be suddenly asked to flee from an approaching major hurricane to shelters, potentially imperiling themselves and others to COVID-19. Hurricane-force winds further compound the risk given the high potential for Coronavirus to spread via respiratory droplets, potentially creating super-spreading environments and fueling fears about going to shelters. Repeated exposure to such crises can tax individuals’ emotional states, leading to difficulties in functioning and decision making over time. The important theoretical and practical question is: How do people make proactive decisions regarding the threat of a hurricane in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic?
The research team conducts a prospective, longitudinal, epidemiological study of residents (n=1,683) from Texas and Florida, for whom the team has data on their exposure, behavior, and response to previous hurricanes. Participants are members of Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, and complete two surveys: one at the beginning of the 2020 hurricane season and at the height of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second after the threat of a major land-falling Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane. The researchers assess participants’ crisis exposure, their threat perceptions, their self- and response-efficacy, their emotional responses and their engagement in health protective behaviors as relevant to COVID-19 and to hurricanes. Moreover, the team uses publicly available datasets to create geocoded variables that link participant location to objective indicators of disaster exposure to both COVID-19 (e.g., deaths per 10,000, daily cases) and the physical parameters of hurricanes (e.g., inundation flooding, wind speed, air temperature). This project examines individual’s response to repeated exposure to hurricanes in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, using pre-COVID, prospectively collected data, objective markers of exposure, and a longitudinal design. The findings are useful to policymakers, service providers, educators, and members of the media to communicate messages and design interventions.
This award reflects NSF’s statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation’s intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
COVID-19 is Not an Equalizer: Examining Pandemic-Related Health Disparities in a Nationally Representative Sample (UC Irvine Office of Inclusive Excellence Advancing Equity in the Age of COVID-19 Research Opportunity, E. Alison Holman, PI; DeWayne Williams, co-PI)
The COVID-19 pandemic has laid bare the health inequities in the U.S. Black Americans are contracting and dying from COVID-19 at a significantly higher rate than white Americans, in part due to pre-existing health disparities. We will examine racial disparities in direct and media-based exposure to COVID-19, and emotional and behavioral responses to the pandemic among a representative sample of Americans (N=6,514) whose pre-COVID-19 mental/physical health histories were collected prior to the U.S. outbreak. Respondents come from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel, a probability-based panel of 35,000 U.S. households selected at random from across the U.S. to create a representative cross-section of U.S. households. The AmeriSpeak Panel is the only U.S. probability panel that uses random door-to-door interviewing for recruitment. We will collect follow-up health data in Winter-Spring 2021 to examine how early exposures and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with changes in mental/physical health status over the pandemic’s first year.
Coping with Cascading Threats: A Prospective Study of Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Nationally Representative Sample of Americans (UC Irvine COVID-19 Basic, Translational and Clinical Research Funding Opportunity, E. Alison Holman, PI; Roxane Cohen Silver, co-PI)
With funding support from the National Science Foundation, our team recently conducted a rigorously designed epidemiological study of over 6,500 people from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel, a probability-based nationally representative sample of U.S. households on whom baseline mental and physical health data were collected prior to the start of the COVID-19 threat in the U.S. Our study addresses the emotional (fear, worry, distress), cognitive (perceived risk), and behavioral (media use, health protective behaviors) responses to the COVID-19 outbreak and how they shape health outcomes over time. We also examine how direct and indirect exposure through widespread media coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak are associated with acute stress responses, the media’s success (or failure) in affording people the information needed to understand the threat, and how cognitive and affective processes shape risk assessments, behavioral responses, and mental health outcomes. Our first wave of data collection is completed (conducted March 18-April 18, 2020). Our overall aim is to provide information that will ensure successful roll-out of mitigation strategies as the crisis unfolds and public health and government officials continue to reduce restrictions on movement in the coming months. Toward that end, we will examine national trends over time in respondents’ risk perceptions, fear, media use, health protective behaviors, and distress surrounding the outbreak. The current proposal seeks funding to support a postdoctoral scholar who can assist in data management, data analysis and dissemination of our findings in advance of the next NSF deadline (August, 2020). We plan to submit a proposal for a regular NSF grant to obtain funding for a series of follow-up surveys that will allow us to identify population-based trends in response to the COVID-19 pandemic over the next several years as treatments and a vaccine become available. To protect public safety and health, it is critical that public officials use accurate information when constructing messages for the public. We seek to provide them with that information from this large, prospective longitudinal study using state-of-the art survey research methods and a nationally representative sample.
Responding to Turbulent Times: Coping with the COVID-19 Pandemic and its Aftermath in a Probability-Based US National Sample (National Science Foundation SES #2049932, Roxane Cohen Silver, PI; E. Alison Holman and Dana Rose Garfin, co-PIs)
In December 2019, scientists identified a novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) that was associated with an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, China and that was suspected of being zoonotic in origin. Within 3 months, this outbreak was labeled a pandemic by the World Health Organization, and a national emergency was declared in the United States. Over the next year, over 500,000 Americans lost their lives to the disease and millions more became ill. In addition, U.S. residents simultaneously coped with a variety of other cascading collective traumas (an economic recession, race-driven social unrest, weather-related disasters, and a contentious presidential election). In the context of this turbulence, variants of COVID-19 have spread worldwide. Nonetheless, there has been unexpectedly good news regarding the development of safe and effective vaccines for COVID-19, and their rollout across the U.S. has accelerated over time. Understanding how Americans respond to the pandemic and government actions to address the pandemic (e.g., vaccine rollout) is critical information that can guide policymakers as they develop national policies to mitigate its impact on public health and welfare.
In 2020, in collaboration with NORC at the University of Chicago, the research team studied over 6,500 individuals from the AmeriSpeak panel, a nationally representative probability-based sample of adults across the United States, as they responded to and coped with both personally- and collectively-experienced traumas. Initial data were collected in March and April 2020, at the start of the pandemic in the U.S., and a second wave of data was collected in September and October 2020. The scholars will conduct a third survey of these respondents as vaccinations continue, the pandemic waxes and wanes across the world, and Americans return to a post-pandemic reality. The team will continue to study emotional (fear, worry, distress), cognitive (perceived risk, time perception), and behavioral (health protective behaviors) responses to the pandemic and its associated stressors and examine how early responses to the pandemic and evolving psychological processes have shaped outcomes over time. The research also examines how widespread media coverage of COVID-19 and direct exposures to pandemic-related stressors (e.g., job loss, death of a loved one) are associated with psycho-social responses to the pandemic, and how cognitive and affective processes shape risk assessments, behavioral responses, and mental health outcomes over time. Finally, psycho-social responses are also mapped against neighborhood, county, and state-level parameters (e.g., behavioral restrictions, unemployment rate, COVID-deaths). Limited research has taken a social ecological approach to infectious disease response or examined how community-level factors may affect perceptions of risk of future hazards – especially ones with such uncertain and deadly outcomes. This project examines predictors of variability in response to the COVID-19 crisis, as well as advances future conceptual work on coping with highly stressful national threats. The findings can help policymakers, service providers, members of the media, and educators design risk communication materials and intervention efforts that are evidence-based, cost-effective, and sensitive to the needs of the populace.
This award reflects NSF’s statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation’s intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
RAPID: Amplifying threats during cascading crises: Media’s role in shaping psychological response to the war in Ukraine (National Science Foundation SES #2224341, Roxane Cohen Silver, PI; E. Alison Holman and Dana Rose Garfin, co-PIs)
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with hostile force, starting the most intense military conflict in Europe since World War II and leading to thousands of injuries and deaths and over 4 million Ukrainian refugees in the first month of the war. Reports of this international geopolitical crisis have instantaneously flooded traditional and social media outlets with graphic videos and images of injuries, death, and destruction – media coverage known to correlate with poor physical and mental health outcomes. But the Ukraine War is occurring in the broader context of the COVID-19 pandemic whose worldwide death toll exceeds 6 million people, escalating climate-related crises, economic volatility and inflation, race-driven social unrest, extreme partisanship, and low confidence in the scientific and social institutions tasked with protecting the public. Direct and media-based exposure to these unprecedented cascading collective traumas are likely to have profound effects on the mental and physical health of Americans. Effective management of these compounding crises requires policies that people support and public adoption of recommended behaviors.
This project assesses psychological reactions to the Ukraine War among a large probability-based nationally representative sample of over 6,500 Americans from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel. They have been surveyed three times since March 2020. Early responses and beliefs about the war in Ukraine are collected as the media transitions from heavy coverage of COVID-19 to heavy coverage of the conflict. Analyses examine how intolerance for uncertainty, emotion regulation, trust in government, and social identities may explain the association between media exposure and emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to the war. This study investigates how fears and worries about these multiple ongoing threats are compounding negative mental health outcomes and impacting those for whom this multiplicative effect is most detrimental. Finally, this project investigates how war-related media exposure may motivate people to take positive action (e.g., prosocial behavior) to help refugees and defend Ukraine’s democracy. Embedding this project in the larger study of the COVID-19 pandemic allows examination of national responses to compounding global crises as they evolve, producing theoretically rich research with practical importance. Results inform policy makers when communicating publicly about multiple existential threats and their potential solutions so they can better promote public well-being without inducing further worry, distress, or emotional exhaustion.
This award reflects NSF’s statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation’s intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
Coping with Compounding Risk and Uncertainty: A Longitudinal Study of Cascading Collective Stress in a Probability-Based U.S. Sample (National Science Foundation SES #2242591, Roxane Cohen Silver, PI; E. Alison Holman and Dana Rose Garfin, co-PIs)
Since 2020, when the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic began, Americans have been coping with a seemingly endless series of escalating stressors, including inflation and economic instability, social unrest, extreme partisanship, climate-related disasters (e.g., flooding, hurricanes, wildfires), global instability (e.g., war in Ukraine), and low confidence in the scientific and social institutions tasked with protecting the public. Such compounding or cascading collective stress/traumas are threats experienced by large groups of people that are often transmitted via the media to people geographically distal to the event. Direct and media-based exposure to these unprecedented cascading collective traumas are likely to have profound effects on the mental and physical health of U.S. residents. The long-term emotional, cognitive, and behavioral implications of these compounding exposures over time remain unknown. In 2020 this research team initiated a study among a large probability-based nationally representative sample of over 6,500 U.S. residents from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel at the very beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and respondents were assessed four times over 3 years. Using this preexisting sample, this new project continues to examine how people respond when exposed to compounding collective stressors while simultaneously coping with individual-level stress and trauma. Four additional surveys (Spring 2023, 2024, 2025, and immediately after a yet unknown collective trauma) and a randomized experiment assess respondents’ psychological (e.g., cognitive and affective risk perception, emotions) and behavioral (e.g., protective and prosocial behavior) responses to the compounding crises that occur during the project period.
Specifically, in collaboration with NORC, this project seeks to follow a nationally representative probability-based sample of 6,500 pre-recruited participants. Panelists provided mental and physical health data before the COVID-19 pandemic began. Initial data for this project were collected in March-April 2020 during the early weeks of the pandemic in the U.S.; respondents have been surveyed four times in the 3 years prior to this new research. Four additional surveys and a randomized experiment assess respondents’ psychological (e.g., cognitive and affective risk perception, emotions) and behavioral (e.g., protective and prosocial behavior) responses to compounding collective crises that occur during the project period. This project examines variability in exposure and response to stress and trauma by accounting for both direct and media-based exposures to individual-level and collective traumas over time. Surveys assess exposure to compounding and cascading collective traumas, co-occurring individual acute and chronic stress, risk perceptions, media use, emotional responses, and self-protective behaviors over 3 years. The project has three aims: (1) Examine how exposure to compounding collective traumas since early 2020 (e.g., pandemic, climate disasters) is associated with psychological (e.g., distress, world views, cognitive and affective risk perceptions) and behavioral (e.g., protective behaviors, civic engagement) responses; (2) Examine whether exposure to individual trauma (lifetime, recent) moderates the association between compounding collective trauma exposure and psychological/behavioral responses, and (3) Examine whether degree of personal stress related to collective stressors moderates the impact of compounding collective trauma exposure on psychological/behavioral responses.
This award reflects NSF’s statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation’s intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.