I attended the Energy, Economy, and the Environment Conference of April 21 sponsored by Chapman University at the Beckman Center of the National Acadamies of Sciences and Engineering next to the UCI campus.
Someone that I met there who had worked on wind turbines for GE assured me that they were designed for earthquake hazards in the areas in which they were deployed, including both earthquake bending and wind bending in different directions. He also reminded me of the report that 20% of the nation’s electrical power could be supplied by wind.
The talk of main interest to me was by Marc Ulrich, Vice President, Renewable and Alternative Power for Southern California Edison (SCE). He told us that in 2010, renewable energy was 19.4% of SCE’s portfolio, amounting to 14.5 billion kWh. This was dominated by geothermal (53%), with wind (29%), biomass (7%), solar (6%) and small hydro (5%).
The California Senate Bill 2X requires 33% renewable annually starting in 2020, with 20% avg. for 2011-13, to 25% for 2014-16, to 33% for 2017-20. SCE’s goal for 2020 is then 28.3 billion kWh, an 89% increase over the 2010 renewables. The main increase will be in solar thermal (about 6 billion kWh), followed by solar photovoltaic (PV) ground mounted (about 4 billion kWh) with very little increase in solar PV rooftop mounted.
He emphasized that the fluctuations had to be backed up by natural gas plants that were rapidly cycled and operating at minimum load with less efficiency. It is a problem not to let these go bankrupt. It seems to me that not only does solar require the expense of the backup plants, but the added expense of the plants being run with less efficiency.
They were also working on fluctuation backups with different timescales, including the world’s largest battery (Li-ion of 8 megawatts – MW), possible flywheels, and 200-500 MW of uphill storage.
He also mentioned that the users pay about 1/4 for the large wire grid, about 1/4 for the near home wiring, and only 1/2 for the actual power itself. Home rooftop PV users, who ship power out during the day but in at night, do not currently pay for the wiring, who’s cost falls on the other users (not to mention the generous subsidies for the PV array from taxpayers, which adds value to the house that only the owner reaps and does not repay when he sells the house – my comment).
DOD has a 50% renewable goal for 2020.
He also referred us to the website www.DSireusa.org/documents/summarymaps/RPS_map.pptx which gives the renewables goal for each state. California at 33% for 2020 is the highest except for Hawaii, who’s goal is 40%.
As I have mentioned, SCE is already at 38% clean energy, so an extra 13% will bring them to 51% clean. This is also an extra disincentive to install your own rooftop solar PV, since you will be mainly replacing already clean energy.
