There are 50 Republican delegates in South Carolina out of a total out of 2,380, which is 2.1% of the total delegates. Again, this compares with 29% of the Republican delegates at stake on Super Tuesday, March 1. Donald Trump is the clear winner with 32.5% of the vote. What we don’t know is how many are voting for other candidates just to avoid voting for Trump. There seems to be some consistency in Trump’s inability to get more than a third of the vote. However, in South Carolina, as the states’ winner, Trump gets 29 delegates. Trump also won each of the seven congressional districts, getting three delegates for each, for a subtotal of 21 delegates. The sum is all 50 South Carolina delegates with less than a third of the vote! The networks and even the NY Times are calling this a “sweeping” victory. With less than a third of the vote?
Sen. Rubio of Florida had 22.5%, and Sen. Cruz of Texas had 22.3%. Gov. Bush has only 7.8%, Gov. Kasich has 7.6%, and Ben Carson, 7.2%. All three of Rubio, Cruz, and Bush are from Southern states, and their total is 52.6%, a virtual majority. If they eventually coalesce into one, they would not only win, but get above the 50% majority required to perhaps win a convention. The non-southern Gov. Kasich of Ohio only has 8% and Ben Carson, only 7%. Does it really matter who “wins” second place in South Carolina, since the Party has only picked 4% of the total delegates so far. Rubio has now taken second place, but only by 1,100 or so votes over Cruz.
Jeb Bush has just suspended his candidacy. Super Tuesday will then be a test of whether Gov. Kasich can pick up Gov. Bush’s votes for people who want governing experience. But their total in South Carolina is only 15.4%, not even matching Senators Cruz or Rubio. Since Jeb Bush was by far spending the most, those who get his financial backing will be a major force.
In my desire to see the political process becoming more democratic, we see that in the Republican primary in South Carolina, the leading candidate, Donald Trump, with only 33% of the votes, walked away with 100% of its delegates. The Democratic primaries, in general, award the delegates on a proportional basis. If that had been used in South Carolina, just divide the percentage by two, since 100% went to 50 delegates, and Trump would have gotten only 16 delegates, Rubio and Cruz 11, and Bush, Kasich and Carson 4 each.
Lets look at the Republican rules in more detail. The winner-take-all of 58% of their at large delegates has the effect of disenfranchising minority voters. The winner-take-all of each congressional district disenfranchises minorities district by district. Remember that the 42% of their delegates from the districts are running in districts highly gerrymandered by a Republican state legislature, with a Republican Governor.
I started this series of articles hoping that California would have several choices of candidates to vote for. With only 4% of the delegates decided, the country now only has one Republican candidate actually experienced in governing and the politics of governing. Gov. Kasich came in with only 8% and fifth place in South Carolina. Republicans have forgotten that their iconic President, Ronald Reagan, served eight years as governor of California before he became President.
Looking forward, on Super Tuesday, Texas has 155 delegates. This will be a test if Texas’ favorite son, Sen. Cruz, will easily win its primary with greater than 50%.
Texas has a complicated method of allocation, but the key numbers for a candidate are 50% and 20%. If a candidate gets less than 20% in a district, they get no delegates from that district. If a candidate gets less than 20% statewide, they get no share of the 47 statewide delegates. If no candidate gets more than 50% in a district, than the the leading candidate gets 2 delegates, and the second place one gets 1. Statewide, if a candidate gets over 50%, they get all at large delegates. Otherwise, the candidates above 20% proportionately split the delegates. In Trump’s terms, if you get less that 20% anywhere, you are a “loser” there.
