It would be nice if Republican candidates to become President of the United States actually knew what Obamacare was, and more importantly, how laws are passed by Congress.
The next President will be sworn into office on Jan. 20, 2017, at noon. Congress will be sworn in on Jan. 3, 2017. In theory, they could pass a law to repeal Obamacare after January 3. Vice President Joe Biden will still be a deciding vote in the Senate If needed, until noon, Jan. 20. However, the 60 Senator override requirement for a filibuster will still be in effect, since the Republican Senators in the present Senate will keep it to prevent a Democratic President from nominating a Supreme Court Justice. So if the next Senate does not have 60 Republicans, they will not be able to override a Democratic filibuster to save Obamacare.
Obamacare is a law passed by Congress and upheld by the Supreme Court. The President will find in his first day of office that he cannot tear up such a law. Even if he tore up a paper copy in front of the press, it wouldn’t nullify the law.
Even if a Republican Congress could eventually pass a rescinding of the law, Obamacare would have set up a system of year long subscriptions or patient contracts with private insurance companies starting Jan. 1, and Jan. 15, 2017. There is no way that they can cancel those legally binding contracts during the year.
So, effectively, it would take a Republican President at least a year to change Obamacare. Whatever replaces it, it would still involve contracts with the same private insurance providers. It took decades to work out a national health insurance program. Romneycare finally provided a program that used to be acceptable to Republicans. The thought that a split Republican Party and a split Congress could agree on a new plan with a Republican President who is at odds with the Republican party is really dreaming. That means tens of millions could lose coverage at the end of the first year in office.
Also, the Medicare assistance contracts with the States essentially set up long term government commitments to completely fund them, and then to 90% fund them. States would undoubtedly sue the US government if it cancels that program, and probably win, if the US tried to renege on those promises.
Republicans could change the rules that require the contracts to be almost full coverage, and revert to the catastrophic coverage policies of the past that were a severe burden on patients.
Even if the newly elected President had completely chosen his cabinet on the first day, there still is the small matter of letting the Senate approve of his selections, starting on Jan. 20. Some choices might be at odds with some Republicans among the split Senate Republicans. After the Cabinet is selected, it will take the administration departments time to act on whatever cancellation bill that the Congress passes, and the President signs. The action of the departments have to be cleared with the Department of Justice, to be sure that they are legal. There also may be many court appeals, as the Republicans have done on Obamacare.
Even if the candidates making the first day pledge don’t know what they are talking about, at least the voters should know. It would be nice to see articles in the press about this by real medical and government attorneys.
