Math of the Western State March 26 Democratic Caucuses
On March 26, three states had Democratic caucuses: Washington with 118 delegates, Alaska with … Delegates, and Hawaii with … Delegates.
Since the caucus rules for delegates are complicated, we will just focus on the largest number of delegates in Washington.
As far as representation goes, we note that in 2012, Barack Obama won the state with 1.75 million votes, with 56% of the vote to Romney’s 41%.
This year’s Democratic caucus had about 200,000 participants, who had to show up in person and spend some time in the process. So only about 1/10 of Democratic presidential voters participated in the caucus.
Precinct caucuses around the state elect about 27,000 delegates (Let’s call them micro delegates). So your chances of becoming a microdelegate are about 13%. But here is where the math gets fuzzy. There are an average of 8 caucusers per micro delegate. Yet if you don’t get enough people agreeing, you don’t get a delegate? And this is done in the open with people lining up on opposite sides of a room. No voter’s privacy. I think you really need tennis shoes on the ground to find out what happens here.
By May 1, legislative district caucuses and county conventions narrow the field to 1,400 minidelegates.
In May, 10 congressional districts select 67 delegates proportional to the votes in each district. Here is where Hillary may pick up some votes.
In June, the state convention picks 34 delegates proportional to the state’s overall vote. These are the delegates that have so far been presented.
Sanders created a volcanic eruption with 72.7% of the vote, and received 25 delegates. Clinton received 27.1% of the vote and received 9 delegates.
The state has 17 elected and party officials, also known as super delegates.
In the Hawaii Democratic caucus with 25 delegates, Sanders trade winds blew out Clinton, with 69.8% and 17 delegates, and Clinton with 30.0% and 8 delegates.
In the Alaska Democratic caucus with 16 delegates, Sanders froze out Clinton with 81.6% of the vote and 13 delegates, to Clinton’s 18.4% and 3 delegates.
Since only a small fraction of voters attend the caucuses, Sanders’ demonstrated enthusiasm among young voters can create a tsunami that washes out other voters. This reminds me of the libertarian followers of Ron Paul on college campuses.
The Democratic total of won delegates is Clinton 1,243 and Sanders 975. Adding Clinton’s 489 Superdelegates and Sanders 29, the totals are Clinton 1,712 and Sanders 1,004.
