The Hidden Human Side of Delegate Math
Even though we think we know the math that selects the Republican presidential candidate, this weekend it became clear that much is going on behind the scenes in delegate selection and wooing.
This starts with North Dakota, which selected 28 uncommitted delegates. It is estimated that 20 of these favor Cruz, and maybe 3 favor Trump.
Looking forward to the convention, even though most delegates are bound for the first ballot, or some for the first and second ballot, they are not chosen by the candidate that they are voting for. Therefore, they are wild cards if there is a convention fight.
There is a rule that was used in the 2012 convention called 40b that required that any candidate that could be considered must have won the majority in 8 states. This would eliminate Gov. Kasich. It sounds like it would eliminate everyone actually, since they may win a winner-take-all state for the delegates, but rarely get over 50% of the popular vote. The press doesn’t appear to have delved deeply into this. Trump and Cruz argue that the rule must be obeyed. This is pure obfuscation of the fact that the convention rules are determined by each convention by the vote of the delegates.
What happens to Rubio’s large share of delegates? He has 164 delegates. 29 of those are now unbound. 92 are bound for one ballot, but he can release 14 of them. 9 are bound for two ballots. 34 are bound until they are released. This may give Rubio some interesting job options, since he is out of the Senate on January 4.
What happens to Kasich’s delegates if he drops out? His 66 Ohio delegates stay bound to him on the first ballot. He has 79 other delegates. Of these, 21 are bound for one ballot, 33 are unbound if he suspends (13 of these he selected), and 25 he can release. I’m still not sure what happens if he is not considered by a new rule 40b, if that passes.
It is going to be odd to eliminate Gov. Kasich of Ohio in the convention in Cleveland Ohio, when Kasich won his home state. Ohio is considered a swing state, and people have even recommended him as a Vice Presidential candidate to secure Ohio. How many Ohio voters will show up in the Presidential election if their governor is not considered at their own convention.
People have mentioned that there are 1500 government jobs that are considered political appointments in a new administration that do not have to be approved by the Senate. These could be part of the rewards used in wooing delegates.
Should Trump fail to win a majority on the first ballot, all the math of the rules really is replaced by wheeling and dealing. A major part of that is going on behind the scenes now in selecting delegates.
