Trump’s Winner-Take-All Strategy
Donald Trump’s strategy to win the nomination or get very close to it on the first ballot relies on the remaining winner-take-all (WTA) states. We review them here.
Using http://thegreenpapers.com data, Trump has 759 delegates of the 1237 needed to win the nomination. This leaves him 478 delegates short. There are 839 delegates remaining. The TV networks report this as he needs 57% of the remaining delegates, whereas he never gets this high in the primary popular votes. They ignore the gigantic boost available in the WTA states, where a mere 34% plurality in a three way race may give you a plurality to win the state.
The remaining WTA states are conveniently but potently arranged for three dates with fate.
April 26: Total…71
Maryland………28
Pennsylvania…17 WTA, others uncommitted!
Delaware……….16
May 3: Total …57
Indiana…………..57
June 7: Total..252. Ka-boom
California………172
New Jersey……..51
South Dakota….29
Grand Total WTA..380
April 19: There is an additional 95 delegates in the New York Primary, which is proportional, but can be WTA if the leading candidate polls over 50% overall, or in a district. There are 14 at-large delegates, and 27 congressional districts with 3 delegates each. Since Trump is now polling at 52% and New York is his home town (Queens) and business location, he may well accomplish that overall, and in many districts.
So of the 478 delegates that Trump needs, 380 are available in WTA states, leaving him to obtain 98 in other states. The remaining possibilities would be 839 – 380 = 459. Thus he would need only 98/459 = 21% of the remaining delegates. Clearly the large WTA states are very important to him. If New York gives him a lot of WTA votes, he would be speeded on his way.
We add two more cases to this.
If Cruz WTA Indiana, then there are 323 WTA delegates for Trump. With 478 needed, getting the 323 WTA leaves him needing 155. 155 out of the 459 non-WTA delegates available is 34%, an average he usually obtains.
If Cruz WTA Indiana and South Dakota, that takes 57 + 29 = 86 away from 380 WTA, giving 294 WTA to Trump. Of the 478 Trump needs, with 294 WTA, leaves 184 needed. 184 out of 459 non-WTA delegates left is 40%. That is what Trump could do at his best.
So Trump has room considering he can take many of New York’s 95 delegates.
What if Trump comes up a few tens of delegates short?
There are still the 54 uncommitted Pennsylvania district delegates, but Trump needs experienced operatives to make sure that they are not grabbed by Cruz, as happened in North Dakota.
There are 29 unbound of Rubio’s 164 delegates, and 14 more that Rubio can release.
Although unbound delegates could be gathered by Cruz, I would imagine that the argument to complete Trump’s first ballot victory and unify the party, or throw the convention open for chaos, would have a strong appeal for lifelong, loyal Republicans.
