The New York Democratic Primary Moves Clinton Forward

New York Democratic Primary

The New York Democratic primary on April 19, 2016, will yield 291 delegates, of which 247 are pledged. Here is the c of the delegates.

163 district delegates from 27 districts, for an average of 6.04 delegates per district, which are determined by a proportional split at each district.

54 at-large delegates and
30 pledged PLEOs, or Party Leaders and Elected Officials, which are pledged proportionately from the state-wide vote

These add up to 247 pledged delegates.

There are also 44 unpledged Superdelegates including Bill Clinton, former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, Democratic Senators Kirstin Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer, Governor Andrew Cuomo, 18 Democratic Representatives out of the states’ 27 districts, and 21 DNC members.

It looks like New Yorkers prefer current New Yorkers by about 60% to 40%, regardless of party.

The Democratic split is 57.95% for Clinton, to 42.05% for Sanders.  That gives Clinton 139 pledged delegates, and Sanders 108 pledged delegates, making up the 247.  This increased Clinton’s lead by 31 pledged delegates.

Of the 44 Superdelegates, 39 endorsed Clinton, and 5 are available.

1.8 million people voted in the primary.

The districts with 6 delegates split 3-3 until the difference equals 16.6%. With this large an overall split of 15%, some of the 6 delegate districts may pass the threshold to split delegates 4-2. Some 7 delegate districts may reach the 64.3% to 35.7% split to make a 4-3 split into a 5-2 split. She may also convert a district with 5 delegates from 3-2 to 4-1 if she reaches 70% in that district.

The results are that 11 of the 6 delegate districts went 4-2, often with 2-1 vote ratios.  One of those went 4-2 for Sanders.  7 of the 6 delegate districts went 3-3.  All of the 5 delegate districts split 3-2, never 4-1.  All of the 7 delegate districts went 4-3, never 5-2.

Despite all of the district splitting mishegas (this is New York), the pledged delegate split ended up 56.28% to 43.72%, within about 2% of the actual vote split.

The soft delegate split is now 1,924 for Clinton, and 1,245 for Sanders, including the unpledged delegates.  There are 1,595 delegates available.  2,383 votes are needed for the nomination.  Clinton is now only 461 votes short of the nomination.  That is, she has 80.7% of the votes needed for the nomination.  Sanders has only 52.2% of the votes needed for the nomination.  Clinton only needs 29% of the remaining votes to clinch the nomination.

As many have called for, it is time to start healing the party, and focusing on the Republican opposition.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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