Trump Sweeps New York, and His Road to the Nomination

Trump Sweeps New York and His Road to the Nomination

Entrepreneur, Real Estate Mogul and TV Celebrity Donald Trump has swept his home and business state primary of New York. With his vote of 60%, he exceeded the 50% needed to convert the proportional primary to a winner-take-all primary in the 14 at-large delegates and in most of the districts, with 3 delegates each. He has been awarded 89 delegates of the 95 for the state of New York. 3 are still available. Gov. John Kasich, governor of Ohio, and tripping all over himself trying to pose as a New Yorker, received 25% of the vote and 3 delegates, according to the greenpapers.com . Senator Ted Cruz of Texas finally found out what New York values are: Not-Cruz. He received 14.7% of the vote and no delegates.

It turns out that some districts had almost no Republican voters, such as Harlem. Yet they still got 3 delegates, unlike the Democratic allocations, which reflect the number of Democratic voters in the district. Yet another breach in fair representation.

Since Trump got 60%, the winner-take-all of most of the delegates left only about 40% of the voters unrepresented by earned delegates. While Trump complains about losing a few delegates to Cruz in Colorado and Wyoming, where popular votes were not taken, Trump’s road to the nomination is from the gain in delegates from winner-take-all states. In Colorado, as I understand it, they could not hold a presidential preference primary, since the RNC rules were that they would be bound by that primary.

As of April 25 update, Trump now has 847 soft delegates, Cruz still has 559, Kasich has 149, and Rubio has 173.

To get the nomination, Trump needs 1237, leaving him to gain 390.

There are still 380 winner-take-all delegates available on three dates.  If he takes all of these, he only needs 10 more delegates.  The winner-take-all primaries remaining are: (I made a type mistake on Maryland delegates, and miscorrected it.  Should have it right now.)

April 26: Total…..71
Maryland…………..38
Pennsylvania……..17, with 54 others uncommitted
Delaware……………16

May 3: Total……57
Indiana……………….57

June 7: Total….252
California…………..172
New Jersey………….51
South Dakota………29

Even if Trump looses the winner-take-all states of Indiana and South Dakota, he is short by 57 + 29 = 86 plus the 10 he’d need from other states, or 96 delegates.  700 delegates are still available. Subtracting the 380 winner-take-all delegates left leaves 320, out of which Trump needs 96 in this scenario, or 96/320 = 30%. Very achievable for him.

If he does not get the winner-take-all of California though, it will be very tough.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
This entry was posted in 2016 Primaries, California Democratic Primary, Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply