Trump Sweeps the Northeast Primary Table

Trump Sweeps the Northeast Primary Table

Trump has swept the five Northeast primaries with percentages from 54% to 64%, much better than usual. Cruz’s best was 22%, in Pennsylvania, and Kasich’s best was 28%, in Connecticut.

In counting the winner-take-all (WTA) delegates, there were 71 available in 3 states.

Delaware had 16, all of which went to Trump.

Pennsylvania had 17 at large, which all went to Trump.

Maryland had 38 WTA delegates, 14 at large and 24 district, and all 38 went to Trump.

Of the 71 WTA delegates today, Trump has all 71!

In the other states, all 28 of Connecticut’s winner-take-most primary went to Trump.

Rhode Island’s 19 split 11 to Trump, 5 to Kasich, and 3 to Cruz.

So from today’s Northeast primaries, Trump has gained 110 delegates, Kasich only 5, and Cruz only 3.

This adds to the N. Y. Results, where Trump won 89 and Kasich 4, and Cruz none.

It appears that Bos-Wash values are similar to New York values, which are Not-Cruz values.

So the speed-up of the WTA Republican primaries has worked here, but it is less effective when the winner already has near 60% of the vote.

We look at the speed-up of the remaining WTA primaries, which occur on two more dates:

May 3, Indiana with 57 delegates, which we discussed under the Cruz-Kasich Gambit; and

June 7, 252 delegates, from California with 172, New Jersey with 51, and South Dakota with 29.

So there are 57 + 252 = 309 WTA delegates left.

The following is an early projection, without today’s final delegate count. With 1,237 needed, and Trump for sure having 957, he needs 280 more delegates. These, and more, could now be covered by the remaining 309 WTA delegates left.

If Trump loses South Dakota, there are 309 – 29 = 280 left, with 280 needed, so he would still be covered by WTA states.

If Trump loses South Dakota and Indiana, there are only California and New Jersey WTA left, but with 172 + 51 = 223 delegates. With 280 needed, he would have to pick up 57 elsewhere.

The networks were very misleading tonight by calling all 54 of Pennsylvania’s district delegates as “uncommitted”. As we showed earlier, most delegate candidates are now committed to Trump, Cruz, or the winner of their district. Trump won Pennsylvania by 57% to Cruz’s 22% and Kasich’s 19%. When the district delegates are announced, most of them will be voting for Trump on the first ballot. That already is a large part of Trump’s needed 57 delegates in the above case.  According to a count by Nate Cohn, Trump leads in 29 of these delegates, another 13 are pledged to their district winner, and Not-Trump or Cruz delegates had 9.  That accounts for 51 of the 54 of the formally uncommitted delegates.  It’s wonderful how human dealing and ingenuity can bypass an undemocratic rule to give a democratic, representative result.

As of April 27, Trump has 957 delegates, Cruz has 562, Rubio has 173, and Kasich has 154.  There are 582 listed as available, but that includes the 54 supposedly uncommitted delegates of Pennsylvania.

In looking forward to WTA primaries, We noticed New Jersey’s Governor Chris Christy standing beside but behind Trump in his victory speech tonight.  We also speculate that Sen. Cruz will announce Carly Fiorina as a Vice Presidential running mate, in a few hours.  She is well known in California as a groundbreaking businesswoman and past CEO of California’s Hewlett-Packard company.  She ran as the Republican candidate for Senator from California in 2010.  She also stands for religious freedom laws, as in Indiana.  She was a very favorable debater earlier in the campaign.

On the popular Republican primary votes of 25.4 million, Trump has 39.6%, Cruz 27.0%, Kasich 14.5%, and others have 18.9%.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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