Clinton Squeezes Out a Win in Kentucky, Sanders Wins Oregon
Clinton needed to break Sanders’ winning streak, so she concentrated on Kentucky. Clinton also needed to show that she can win in a coal producing state after her gleeful mistake of saying she was glad coal was going. Broadcasters who focus only on wins will forget how close the Kentucky win was.
In Kentucky, Clinton won with 46.76%, while Sanders lost with 46.33%. They only differed by 1,924 votes out of about 455,000 votes, or by 0.4%, or 1 part in 236. I am always amazed when votes come in this close, more often than you would expect statistically. Can the use of big data on voters lead to such a balance? Kentucky has 55 pledged delegates and 5 unpledged Superdelegates, for a total of 60. The 55 pledged come from 37 district delegates, 12 at large, and 6 PLEOs. Since it was really a tie, and all Democratic primaries are proportional, the 12 at large were split 6-6, the 6 PLEOs were split 3-3, and the 6 districts ended up with 19 Clinton and 18 Sanders. The total pledged were 28 Clinton and 27 Sanders. Calling Clinton a winner with one delegate in excess is just the way the districts split.
In Oregon, Sanders was a clear winner and leader getting 55% of the vote to Clinton’s 43%. The pledged delegates were 61 with 13 Superdelegates, totaling 74. Sanders got 35 pledged, and Clinton 26, so Sanders gained 9 delegates on Clinton in Oregon.
For the day, Sanders gained 8 on Clinton.
In pledged delegates, Clinton of course still leads by 1,767 to 1,488, a difference of 280. Out of the 3,255 pledged total so far, 280 is 8.6%.
Clinton has 524 Superdelegates giving her a total of 2,291 delegates. 2,383 delegates are needed to win. So Clinton is only 92 delegates from clinching the nomination.
Sanders has 1,488 plus 40 Superdelegates for a total of 1,528. He needs 855 to win the nomination.
There are 781 pledged delegates to be determined, with 694 available on June 7. California has 475 then, and New Jersey 126. So Sanders cannot win the nomination solely on pledged delegates, even if he got all of the new ones.
There are 714 total Superdelegates. With 524 committed to Clinton and 40 to Sanders, their total of 564 leaves 150 left to commit. Clearly, they can change their commitments at any time.
It is still mathematically possible for Sanders to take all future 781 pledged delegates and 150 Superdelegates left to total 931 and overcome his 855 shortfall. In such a universe, many of us will be struck by lightning.
Sanders has stated that he is running until the last vote is cast, which will be in the D.C. Primary on June 14, which is still a whole month away. Since D.C. Only has 26 pledged delegates, he might as well give up on June 7. Or, did Sanders mean he would only quit after the last vote of delegates at the Democratic convention during July 25-28, which is 10 weeks away?
