Donald Trump should win the last Super Tuesday by forfeiture, and by the winner-take-all (WTA) nature of four of its five primaries. His total winnings will be 303 delegates. Trump already holds the presumptive candidate title. The Republican candidate requires 1,237 delegates to win. Trump has won 1,144 pledged delegates. But he also has 95 unpledged delegates, giving him a total of 1,239, and making him the presumptive candidate. Tomorrow, June 7, he should add 303 to that, giving him 1,542, plus whatever extra unpledged delegates should add to that. This is a win by 25% over the required amount. Now, or during the convention, the defunct candidates may release the delegates that they can to make the win more impressive.
Update on June 9: All of this has come to pass. The Republican speed-up method of selecting the lead candidate and ignoring the others with winner-take-all states worked perfectly. The problem was that it did not give them the party loyal candidate that most wanted or expected. The other problem was that the five week lead in campaigning before the Democrats secured their candidate was wasted or worked out negatively with Trump.
In detail, the primaries are topped by California with a winner-take-all primary by plurality both by district and state-wide. Trump should easily win these 172 delegates with no opposition. Next are three winner-take-all states of New Jersey with 51 delegates, South Dakota with 29 delegates, and Montana, with 27 delegates. Finally, there is New Mexico, with a proportional primary requiring greater than 15% to get a delegate, having 24 delegates. With no organized opposition, Trump should get all of these, despite having insulted the states’ Republican governor and Chairwoman of the Republican Governors Association, Susana Martinez. She is also the first Hispanic female governor in the United States, and is serving her second term. New Mexico also has many Hispanic voters.
Update: Trump only got 70.7% of the vote in New Mexico. Ted Cruz came in second with 13.3%, but this was below the 15% needed to get a delegate.
