The Influence of Democratic Caucus Wins and Delegates
Clearly, Caucuses are not a way to democratically represent the wishes of the Democrats in a state. They require travel to the sites, a fair amount of time, and often open rather than private voting. They involve only a fraction of those party members who will vote in the general election. That said, what have been their results in wins and delegates? Also, which states are big enough that they should convert to primaries?
I have counted up 18 caucuses. The North Dakota Democratic caucus was just won today by Sanders, by a vote of 258 to 106 with 43 uncommitted state convention delegates. 13 of its Democratic party delegates have been awarded to Sanders, and 5 to Clinton.
I am only going to count pledged or the equivalent delegates. Of the caucuses, Sanders has won 13 caucuses, and Clinton has won 5. In the four territories with caucuses, there are only 6 or 7 delegates, so wins there do not add much to the totals. Clinton won all four. If one starts counting wins, should wins really count compared to say, California, with its 475 pledged delegates, and the population to match that.
The pledged delegate totals from caucuses are 352 for Sanders, and 213 for Clinton. The total from all pledged in caucuses is then 565. Some have argued that the 714 superdelegates are undemocratic in selecting a president. But the undemocratic 565 caucus delegates are a full 79% of the number of superdelegates.
One option about the superdelegates, in future conventions, is to keep them for the convention, where they have to make up the party platform and plan strategy to win for Democrats in all positions, but do not allow them to vote for the presidential nominee.
Of the 565 pledged caucus delegates, there are three states that dominate: Washington with 111, Minnesota with 77, and Colorado with 66. Their total is 254, or 45% of all caucus pledged delegates. These three states should be advised to enter the ranks of the other large states that all have democratic primaries.
By my amateur count, if we examine only real primaries, Clinton had won 23, and Sanders had won 10. I can now add California, South Dakota, New Jersey, and New Mexico to Clinton’s primary wins, to make 27, and Montana to Sanders’ to make 11.
When Sanders parades his 24 wins, more than half are caucus wins, 13 to 11, which do not represent the true preferences of all potential voters in those states.
The TV networks seriously distort this difference between caucuses and primaries by showing the US map with dark blue states for Clinton and light blue for Sanders, without indicating which are real primaries.
