Did the Weather Help Trump Win the Election?

Did the Weather Help Trump Win the Election?

Trump had a turnout of previously hidden voters in the North-Central US, or what I call the Game of Icy Thrones.  We compare the average November temperature range in select cities in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota with the actual temperature range on election day, Nov. 8, 2016.

City                            November Average       November 8, 2016

                                               H      L                               H     L

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania   56     39                            56    39

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania       51     35                            69    36

Cleveland, Ohio                     51     37                            69    36

Columbus, Ohio                     53     36                            75    40

Detroit, Michigan                   49     34                            66     43

Milwaukee, Wisconsin           46     32                            66     52

Minneapolis, Minnesota        41     26                            65     44

 

Except for cooler Philadelphia and New England, the high for Nov. 8 for the Great Lake states ranges from 17 degrees to 22 degrees F hotter.  Global warming could only account for 1.8 degrees F hotter on a global, year-round basis.  Although it could contribute to a fall heat wave. Still, Trump got amazingly lucky.  It’s true that I should have used the many-year average on or around Nov. 8, but I haven’t found that data on my first hour of searching.  But the extreme warmth on this particular election day will still be outstanding.

I have read many articles on demographics of Trump’s unexpected victory, looked at two exit poll summaries, and heard several political scientists talk on this, but have not encountered the great weather effect. 

Since urban voters usually have to wait longer in long lines than rural voters, one might have expected that the good weather would have helped Clinton.  I don’t have the data yet on urban turnouts and compared them to past elections and temperatures.  It could be that it helped Clinton, but it helped Trump more.

Does it say that Trump should now believe in global warming?  Not because of this weather, but because the science is so sound.

 

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
This entry was posted in 2016 Election, Climate Change, Clinton, Donald Trump, Swing States, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply