Trump’s Appointments from the Viewpoint of Our Nuclear Security
For the past year, the news and the Democratic campaigns have been warning us of possible instability with a President Trump’s access to the nuclear briefcase. His own campaign advisors have struggled to tame the tiger. In looking at Trump’s possible choice for the Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, CEO of Exxon Mobil, this is a prime positive. This also applies to VP Mike Pence attending the daily Security Briefings. It also would help if Trump’s intelligent soothers, his daughter Ivanka, and her husband Jared Kushner, who may be moving to Washington, D.C., are at his side to give advice.
Over a few years, I have been hearing concerns about possible military competitiveness between the US and Russia over the results of the increasing melting of Arctic ice, opening fields for oil drilling, and the Northern transport lanes. Now that Exxon Mobil has an agreement to work with Russia to develop this oil, the threat of conflict may be removed. If Tillerson becomes Secretary of State, the Secretary will have a strong motive to avoid a military conflict with Russia that could void his drilling deal or lead to a nuclear war. The Secretary of State will be one of the few people in the Cabinet meetings who could serve to bring intelligence to our foreign affairs. It is not the sanctions that are hampering Russia, as much as the plummet in the price of oil to a third of its highest value. Russia relies on oil revenue for over half of its budget.
However, the drilling deal is blocked by the sanctions over Russia’s take back of Crimea, and Eastern Ukraine. Trump had essentially surrendered these in a talk where he said that they were mostly Russians there. Hate to think that that is the new basis of foreign policy. There are a lot of areas of Russia where there are other ethnic groups than Russian. Same with China. Same with Miami. ETC. In fact, there never was a free vote in either Crimea or Eastern Ukraine to cede to Russia. Putin’s moves are very resource oriented. The takeover of Crimea gave Russia about a trillion dollars worth of offshore oil rights to drill in the Black Sea. Eastern Ukraine also has valuable mineral mines, which Russia took over. Trump freely gave these up, although they belong to Ukraine, anyway. What about the art of the deal, and all of our trade packs with friendly countries that Trump is going to break to get a better deal?
The conflicts that President Obama avoided, of going to war over eastern Ukraine and Crimea, were both areas where the population was largely Russian, and which were strategically surrounded by Russian territory. Neither Crimea nor Ukraine are part of NATO.
As far as Tillerson admitting that climate change is real, Exxon was sued because there were emails showing that Exxon had funded climate denial groups, at the same time planning to drill in the Arctic when warming melted the ice. Now that he will not be acting as Exxon’s CEO, he doesn’t have to stick to agreeing to climate change.
It is good that VP Mike Pence attends the security meetings, in lieu of Trump. He can soften the situation reports to Trump so that Trump does not go off the handle, especially if someone throws an insult Trump’s way. Trump also cannot read the body language of the intelligence reporters to interpret whatever he does that way.
If Trump’s family members Ivanka and Jared, whom he trusts, have security clearance and are part of the government, they can act as a much more effective barrier between Trump and the nuclear briefcase, or any orders for ill considered or unadvised military strikes. Trump doesn’t really trust people outside of his family, especially if they are experts, as in intelligence. When Trump leaves out the CIA and State Department in his dealings, someone has to know what their recommendations would be.
What about the Russian election hacking scandal, in regard to nuclear security? If Putin really wanted Trump elected, it hopefully meant that Putin did not plan to push Trump so hard that it would trigger his instability, and have Trump pull the trigger. That is good.
Now there is the appointment of 14 year Governor of Texas, Rick Perry, to head the Department of Energy (DOE). Everybody is recalling that when Perry announced in a Republican Presidential debate many years ago that he would cancel three government departments, he forgot that the third one was the DOE. This cost him his candidacy. Boy, what quaint old days that brings back. Compare that to POLITICO’s list of 239 major goofs or disruptions that Trump made during the campaign, all much worse than a simple forget, and Trump won! The real flub of Perry’s DOE forget was not appreciated by the public. To Texas oil magnates, the whole reason Perry was put into office was to spend every waking moment fighting DOE and EPA regulations.
Perry’s appointment has a direct relation to nuclear security, since 60% of the DOE’s budget is concerned with nuclear weapons, nuclear nonproliferation and counterterrorism. Abolishing DOE would mean giving these secret programs to the military, changing the historical oversight of nuclear weapons by civilians. The last two Secretaries of DOE have been well regarded scientists: Noble Laureate and Solar Energy researcher Steven Chu of UC Berkeley; and Nuclear Physics MIT Prof. Ernest Moniz, who was crucial to getting the Iran deal on nuclear non-proliferation. Perry brings climate science denial to head the agency that funds clean energy research, and clean nuclear power regulations and research. The only thing that Perry brings to the cabinet is the experience of being an actual Governor for 14 years, and the ability to deal with oil magnates.
Perry actually sounds like an added risk on nuclear security, since the nuclear weapons community is engaged in a tense debate as to whether to modernize the nuclear weapons with more accuracy, and other, perhaps secret capabilities. This worries our nuclear opponents, since they will have to match it with defenses, or it will lead to more hair-trigger launching policies, for both sides. Trump has never examined a policy on this. Hopefully, Perry is a quick learner, except for that DOE flub …
Trump’s defense thinking has not progressed beyond trying to match the number of ships we had at the end of World War I. Trump has misquoted and criticized the costs of new Air Force Ones, as being $4 billion, but maybe thinking it was only one plane. The cost for the two planes together may only be $1.65 billion, and they are needed with new defenses and communications, as the headquarters from which a nuclear attack would be met and responded to. Not a plane to cheap out on.
Trump also criticized the cost of the F35 program, without mentioning that they compose new technologies, and that they are four related fighter models: one for the Air Force, one for the Navy, one for the Army, and one for vertical takeoff and landing. These new technologies are not the same as building largely standard Trump Towers here and there.
Finally, it is good that Trump stays on as Producer of the Celebrity Apprentice. He will rub shoulders with Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was a Republican Governor of California, the Nation’s most populous state, and a Democratic state, for two terms from Nov. 17, 2003 to Jan. 3, 2011. Like Trump, he is a billionaire, and therefore a winner, and a successful actor. Unlike Trump, he believes in climate change, and ran a successful program of reducing California’s emissions. Gov. Schwarzenegger signed the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006, creating the nation’s first cap on greenhouse gases. That was 10 years ago. It would be good for President Trump to meet with a Republican Governor who endorsed climate science, and responded effectively to it.
Now if we could only get someone with an interest in preserving relations with China.
People are right in complaining that involvement with Russia and the Trump Organization are serious conflicts of interest. Violating nepotism rules or getting an exception would normally be looked on as special favors. But the issue that allows me to sleep better at night is to know that there are some more intelligent and respected people advising about nuclear security matters in Trump’s cabinet. Even if they are far from those present in the Obama cabinet.
