Can Trump Take Credit for the Stock Market Rise?

Can Trump Take Credit for the Stock Market Rise?

The remarkable 20% rise in the US stock market indexes since Nov. 7 can certainly be attributed to Trump’s election with his supposedly populist jobs policies, or his pro-business and anti-regulation policies, or his promised tax cuts which were pro-investor. I am not an economist, or even a deep follower of economics, and especially not the markets. Yet one can use scientific reasoning to try to see if Trump is responsible for this rise.

We know that Trump likes to take credit since day one of accomplishments that were just follow-ons of President Obama’s works. Trump recently dedicated our eleventh air craft carrier the USS Gerald Ford. This had to have been planned and funded for a decade, and Trump took full credit for it. He loved taking credit for arms deals that were set up by Obama, and for jobs data that he used to claim were phony.

But let’s note that European market indices also went up, as well as Asian indices. Since Trump claims that he will get advantages over other countries in trade deals, they should be hurting or expecting to hurt, not celebrate. Since Trump will recall jobs from Asia, why would they be growing? In fact, Trump has had little effect on manufacturing or even coal jobs.

While the world is concerned with moving to clean energy, and Trump is getting a supposed economic advantage by backing away from clean energy, why are foreign indexes also increasing?

Trump has failed to act against Russian incursions, Russian hacking and false information, solving the Middle East, getting China out of the South China Sea, solving North Korea, and replacing trade agreements. He has hesitated on NATO, left the Paris Climate agreement, and pulled out of Asian free trade agreements. Congressional sanctions against Russia have ended the hope for detente. Why is all of this not destabilizing to the markets?

While economists favor free trade, they have not been able to agree on accounting for the market increases.

The promised tax decreases have not even been formulated, voted on, or passed. So why all of the new investment?

The price of oil has stayed low, which helps consumers and business. But it doesn’t help oil company profits.

The only rise we can lay at Trump’s credit is the 41% rise in Goldman Sachs, since they are now running US economics.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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