Summary of Posts Relevant to Climate Action Plans for Southern California
By Dennis Silverman
UCI Physics and Astronomy
My Blog is at: sites.uci.edu/energyobserver/
The Long-Term Outlook for Climate Sustainability
An optimistic long-term outlook to 2100 to help survive the present negative Administration’s efforts.
Green Energy Decisions that Individuals Can Make
The many and significant pollution savings that are now under the control of individuals.
California Utility and CCA Clean Energy Programs
This presents the Green Energy options of California’s three major utilities, as well as the main Community Choice Aggregations or CCAs in the state, and their energy sources.
Coverage of Downtown Laguna Beach from Different Flood Heights
We show height level maps of downtown Laguna Beach under different possible sea level or flood rise heights. Covering the coast highway requires a six-foot rise. Even a ten-foot rise would only flood Broadway, Ocean Ave., or Forest Ave., half-way to Beach Street, the first cross street. This doesn’t mean floods would reach these heights. The Intermediate Scenario has a projected 3.3 foot rise in global mean sea level, which occurs very slowly and can be adapted to when needed. Storm surge plus waves may add another four feet.
Comparisons of California Utilities 2016 Power Sources and Emissions
We compare energy sources and calculate CO2 emissions from six of California’s major utilities. SC Edison and SDG&E have about equal emissions, and about the same as the California average. They are about half of the average emissions of the United States.
San Diego Gas and Electric Improves Its Renewables Mix
In 2016, SDG&E increased it Renewables 8%, from 35% to 43%, by increasing Solar and Wind power. Natural gas then dropped by 8%. That is way above the 2020 State goal of 33%, and is more than half-way from that to the 2030 goal of 50%. San Diego is studying for three years whether to form a CCA, or use the SDG&E “Ecochoice” plan, which is 100% Solar power.
Southern California Sea Level Rise and Flood Risk
The “Mild Flood” risk, defined as once a year, is 2.2 feet for 2020, 3.4 feet for 2060, and 5.3 feet for 2100. The flood is measured above the 1992 high tide level. The 48th Congressional District, along our coast, has 10,000 people living below 3 feet above high tide. There are 6,500 in Newport Beach, 3,100 in Huntington Beach, and 400 in Sunset Beach.
Southern California King Tides in 2017/2018
These King Tides will be at almost 7 feet, and on Dec. 3, 4, and 5 at about 7 AM, 8 AM, and 9 AM. They return again on Jan. 1, 2, and 3 at about 8 AM, 8:30 AM, and 9:15 AM. This might be the standard high tide level around year 2100, if you don’t want to wait until then.
International College Students in the US
Emphasizing the importance of over a million international college students in the US, including helping to fund our Universities and our own student’s financial aid. UC Irvine is ranked 25th in the US, with 6,800 foreign students. 390,000 of these are graduate students who teach and do research.
The Climate Action of the US at the Bonn Conference
Governor Brown and for NY City Mayor Michael Bloomberg are part of 20 States in the US Climate Alliance, and over 383 US Climate Mayors pledging to fulfill President Obama’s Paris Agreement goals. Laguna Beach joined the US Mayor’s Climate plan in August 2017. The goal is to cut emissions at least 26% below the 2005 level by 2025. The US has already cut them by 11.5% by 2015 due to Natural Gas replacing Coal. The temperature has already risen about 1 degree Celsius since the pre-industrial revolution. With present goals, we still will have a total 3 degree C rise (5.4 degrees F), well above the 2 degree C goal. They said that 67% of Southern California beaches could be lost to sea level rise by 2100.
Southwestern Temperature Increases with Climate Change
In the new Fourth National Climate Assessment, the business-as-usual (RCP8.5) temperature projection for 2050 is 1.1 degrees C for the Rockies, 1.1 for the Sierra Nevada, and 1.3 for the Western US. By 2100, the projection is 4.5 degrees C for the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada, and 5.2 C (9.36 F) for the Western US. At 2100, the decrease in the snow pack for the Rockies is -65%, for the Sierra Nevada – 89%, and for the Western US, -70%.
Climate Change, Flooding, and West Coast Cities
In the Fourth National Climate Assessment, the Global Mean Sea Level rise is 1.1 feet by 2050, and 3.3 feet by 2100 in the Intermediate Scenario. The US West Coast may see and additional 2-3 feet Relative Sea Level rise by 2100 due Antarctica melting. But in the business-as-usual (RCP8.5) scenario, Atmospheric River days are expected to increase 50% to 600% by 2100.
Extreme Storm Predictions for the West Coast
Not only will storms be more frequent, they will also be more intense and carry more rain. Extreme events above the 95th percentile will increase by 30%-40% in business-as-usual projections.
Predictions for Sea Level Rise
This presents a table of sea level rise for 2050, 2100, and 2200 for six scenarios covering the possible range of projection. In the Intermediate-high case or the midrange of business-as-usual RCP8.5, sea level rise is 4.9 feet by 2100. In the High case or high end of RCP8.5, sea level rise is 6.6 feet by 2100. I won’t scare you with the Extreme case.
Can Big Data Trace Gun Threats? Perhaps Easily.
Since the US Government is not allowed to keep computerized records of gun purchases, including on-line or at Gun Shows.
So Long Russia, and Thanks for All the Uranium
In the Megatons to Megawatts program, the US ran 50% of its nuclear power for two decades off of Uranium from Russian decommissioned nuclear weapons. This produced 5,200 times as much Uranium as Russia mined in the US last year with its Uranium One company. It couldn’t sell this abroad anyway. So much for that right-wing scandal only peripherally involving Secretary Clinton.
Fox News and Trump’s Fraud on US’s Russian Uranium
Russia bought Uranium One for its Kazakhstan holdings. Last year, Uranium One mined only 0.037% of world production in the US. It still had to sell it in the US.
California Utilities Sizes and Costs
Compares Output of SC Edison and PG&E at 80 and 70 teraWatt hours, with SDG&E at 17 teraWatt hours. So far this year, CCAs were at 9 teraWatt hours, and in 2016 had 1.3 million customers. The top three utilities sold about 2/3 of the power used in the state. Total power consumed was 261 teraWatt hours.
Recommending Yearly or Biennial Reporting by the Mayor’s Climate Action Plan Committee
Or at least every four or five years, following each new four-year climate report by the US, or every 5-year report and perhaps new pledges by the Paris Agreement.