CA 48th Fund Raising as of May 16, 2018
We show the fund raising reported on May 16, 2018 for the remaining candidates in the heavily contested CA 48th congressional district. We then comment on the Top Two California runoff ballot.
Lots of mailers and TV ads have been appearing over the last few weeks. This is because California has already sent out mail in ballots, which can be postmarked including the primary date of June 5, but not beyond. I haven’t found a recent poll, which would tell what is going on. Fundraising is another measure of how much the public will be informed and influenced, but the total amount raised is more a measure of special interest support, and not of voter enthusiasm.
We start with the Republicans, led by incumbent and 15 term congressman Dana Rohrabacher. The amount is in a million dollars, rounded off. The data are from the Center for Responsive Politics.
Republicans:
Dana Rohrabacher $ 1.558
Scott Baugh $0. 592
Stelian Onufrei $0.360
John Gabbard $0.051
Republican Total: $2.561
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Democrats:
Harley Rouda $ 1.939
Hans Keirstead $1.631
Omar Siddiqui $0.944
Rachel Payne $0.272
Tony Zarkades $0.002
Democratic Total: $4.788
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This is about twice the amount that Rohrabacher has raised in his other campaigns. Harley Rouda had made himself a million dollar loan in his earlier March declaration. Rohrabacher’s main category of funding is from Real Estate, to the tune of $0.162 million.
The Democratic fundraising is remarkably almost double that of the Republicans, in this Southern Californian coastal district containing some very wealthy areas, and going 58% to 42% for Rohrabacher in the 2016 election. The precise funding ratio of Democrats to Republicans is 1.87.
Since the November ballot will only have the Top Two on it, regardless of party, the having fundraising divided among the top three Democrats is very wasteful and risky. They are really running against Scott Baugh for the second spot on the ballot. All three leading Democratic candidates have raised much more than Baugh at only $0.6 million. Rouda beats Baugh by a factor of 3.28. Keirstead beats Baugh by a factor of 2.76. Even Siddiqui beats Baugh by 1.59. But with three Democrats competing for less than half the vote, there is some chance that they could lose to Baugh, despite factors of three in funding support.
The other mess-up about the Democrats is that the national DCCC is backing Harley Rouda, after the California Democratic Party backed Hans Keirstead.
The Democrats have crucial and painful decisions to make about how much funds to expend on the Primary, versus saving some for the general election. Their internal knowledge of possible general election donations, as well as internal polls for confidence, will be crucial in their decisions. As of the date of filing, which was three weeks before the Primary, Rohrabacher has already spent about 3/4 of his funds, Rouda had spent about 2/3, Keirstead had spent most of his funds, Siddiqui had spent only a fifth, and Baugh, only about a half.
This is one of the Democrats best chances to upset Rohrabacher, since there is such discontent with Trump, starting with the election in 2016. Their success will first depend on their coming together after a rather strained primary. Then it will depend if the best strategy is to stay liberal to encourage more Democratic turnout, or to move to the center to capture independent and sour Republican voters.
