California 48th Congressional District Early May Polls
We are ending our coastal May Gray and transiting into our June Gloom of overcast skies from clouds over the ocean. Not only our recreation, housing, jobs and businesses depend on the coast, but our weather, and our future beach, water, and fire vulnerability under climate change. This is why we have to oust Republican Dana Rohrabacher, who is a climate science denier as well as an accomplice of off-shore oil drillers.
The challenge of California’s open playoff Top-Two championship system, which is a musical chairs dance among many interesting candidates, is now narrowed to the top four. No LeBron James has emerged among them. We report here on three early May polls of the 48th District.
Change Research released a poll on May 7, 2018, which was taken May 2-3. It covered 590 registered voters. It showed Rohrabacher’s first with only 27%, Hans Keirstead the lead Democrat at 19%, Scott Baugh the second Republican at 17%, and Harley Rouda, the second Democrat at 11%. The total is 74%. So far, Republicans 44% to Democrats 30%. Maybe, other candidates were not included in the poll, so the undecided was 26%, or maybe less. I don’t know how realistic the subsequent operations of showing positive information, and then negative information, each time repolling, are to a real voter experience. In the end though, they had Rohrabacher slightly lowered to 25%, Keirstead raised 6% to 25%, Baugh raised 4% to 21%, and Rouda still at 11%. Undecided dropped from 26% to 18%.
After a good month of mailings and TV commercials, if 18% are still left undecided, what will they do? We don’t know which party the undecided favor to make a good guess.
In the initial poll, Keirstead leading Baugh by only 2% with 26% not voting for the top four is very dicey for having a Democrat on the championship general election ballot. In the educated repolling, Keirstead still only leads Baugh by 4%, too close to call.
The second May poll was done by Anzalone Liszt Grove Research for the Keirstead campaign. They called 400 likely primary voters from May 6-8 by landline. The results were reported by Roll Call. Rohrabacher led at 31%, and Baugh came in second at 15%. Keirstead had 14%, and Rouda 13%. This poll found that 12% of voters were undecided. The total of the top four was 73%. Republicans had 46% to Democrats at 27%. Adding the 12% undecided, gives 85%, meaning 15% were voting for other candidates. It would be important to know party leanings for the 12% undecided plus the 15% for other candidates, or 27%. But the public did not pay for the poll, and we don’t get those crucial results.
A poll that I reported on on May 13, taken May 1-6, had Rohrabacher leading at 30%, with Keirstead, Baugh, and Rouda tied at 13% each. Undecided was 18%. The poll was taken by Tulchin Research. Among the top four, Republicans had 43% to Democrats at 26%.
Comparing the three polls, without the further information polling, Rorhabacher ranged from 27% to 30% to 31%, Keirstead from 19% to 13% to 14%, Baugh from 17% to 13% to 15%, and Rouda from 11% to 13% to 13%. All of these ranges were within those allowed by statistical uncertainty.
That’s why, in the end, you actually have to play the game. It is crucial for everyone to become informed and to vote by June 5. Searching YouTube for “CA 48” turns up many presentations from the candidates, available in your living room while you have snacks and a drink in your favorite chair.