There is severe morning-after hangover for the Democrats and Republicans from the California Primary in the CA 48 district. What was touted as a three way for runner up, has come up much closer than anticipated.
First of all, 30 year veteran Republican Congressman Dana Rohrabacher has ridden his small wave in, but with a corresponding low score of 30.3%, consistent with early May polling.
The question of who will join him on the Top Two November ballot is an unbelievably tight tie between the Democrats Harley Rouda, currently leading with 18,182 votes (17.3%), and Hans Keirstead with 18,109 votes (17.2%). Somewhat behind is the Republican challenger Scott Baugh with 16,963 votes (16.1%). The Rouda lead is only 73 votes!
These are the results of the June 6, 8 AM report of the OC Registrar of Voters. We thank that office for staying up all night counting votes. From now on, new vote totals will only be coming out at 5 pm each day. Voters were allowed to mail ballots including voting day on June 5, so they will be dribbling in all week. I don’t have precinct programs like the campaign firms do to project who is winning, but I think Rouda has claimed victory.
The three early May polls that I reported on had favored Keirstead as runner up to Rohrabacher, so both Rouda and Baugh had come up dramatically.
Here is the morning’s complete returns:
Where is that Big Blue Wave of Democratic voters? The total of the percentages of the Republican candidates is 53.0%. The total of the Democrats is 46.1%. That is a 7% separation, which is a lot better than Rohrabacher’s 2016 win of 58% to 42% with a 16% spread. But it is still an outgoing Red wave, not an incoming Blue one.
If there is going to be an incoming Blue Wave in the fall, it is going to have to overcome the rip tide whirlpool set up from all of the negative advertising from the outside against the candidates, both Republican and Democratic. The campaign workers were so intense, that they may not easily merge constructively. Democrats of this coastal district will have to concentrate on the climate change denying and offshore oil drilling promotion of Rohrabacher to boost their cooperation and numbers. The danger is that surfer Rohrabacher will still glide to victory on polluted, anti-environmental wave in November.
The independent Democratic PACS fighting against Baugh and for Gabbard might have had some effect in such a close result, but Gabbard only got 3.2%, and Baugh gained over his poll results. The poll gains by all might be because the 18% undecided had to come in from the cold, heated up by all of the TV ads, phone calls, and mailers. Yet the top four candidates, which were the only ones reported on in some polls, only garnered 80.9% of the vote. 19% still went to minor candidates. Omar Siddiqui, who ran appealing positive ads, came in 5th with 4.9%.
