Background on Voting in the California 48th

Background on Voting in the California 48th

So far in the California Primary in the 48th Congressional Disttrict, 109,343 votes have been counted. Of these, 50,266 voted for Democratic candidates. That is 46%. Voters for Republicans were 58,080, or 53%. How does this compare to past turnout, and to the population and the number of registered voters?

The standard Congressional district has 711,000 people in the 2010 census. There are 540,000 adults over 18. There are 388,015 registered voters in the 48th, which is 54.6% of the population, and 72% of the adults. The registration is 40.3% Republican (156,465), 30.0% (116,260) Democrats, 25,0% (96,989) No Party Preference, 1.9% (11,234) American Independent, 1.0% Libertarian, and 0.8% smaller other.

So in the Primary, the 58,080 Republican voters are a 15.0% turnout of total registered voters, and the 50,266 Democrats are 13.0% of total registered voters. Maybe the turnout will grow this week.

All this was started by noting that given many options, only 30.4% voted for their Congressman of 30 years, Dana Rohrabacher, or 33,198. That is only 8.5% of registered voters, or 4.7% of the population of the District. What does this say about participation in our democracy?

Where have all the voters gone, long time passing?

In the 2016 Primary, there were 164,077 votes. Granted, voters were picking Clinton vs. Sanders, and Trump vs. … Rohrabacher got 92,815 votes or 56.6%, and the two Democrats Suzanne Savary and Robert Banuelos totaled 71,262 or 43.4%. The split there was 13.2%. The 109,343 of this June 5 Primary was 66.6% or 2/3 of that Presidential Election Primary.

The General Election in 2016 had an almost double 306,416 voters. Rorhabacher won over Savary 58.3% to 41.7%, or 178,701 to 127,715. This June 5 Primary was only 35.7% of that total of voters.

This fall, instead of an exciting Clinton vs Trump race, we have with the Top Two format the most ho-hum ballot: Diane Feinstein will be re-elected Senator, which she richly deserves, and Gavin Newsom will be elected Governor. Expected turnout: zero. This is, then, the perfect opportunity to beat Rorhabacher, if Democrats really cared!

After that mike drop, I should quit, but I have to add the vote in the last mid-term Primary and General Election in 2014, when Trump was still just a TV Star. In the Primary, 93,488 voters turned out in the CA 48th, which was 85% of this Primary’s voters, so far reported. Rorhabacher led that with 56.1%, and the total Republican vote was 68%. The 2014 General Election brought out 174,795 voters, where Rorhabacher beat Sue Savary with 64.1% of the vote to her 35.9%. Winning the 2018 off year election in this District will be an enormous challenge for Democrats.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
This entry was posted in 2018 California Primary, 2018 Midterm Election, California Democratic Primary, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th, Politics. Bookmark the permalink.

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