June 20 Update for the CA 48th Congressional District

June 20 Update for the CA 48th Congressional District

Jordan Graham in the OC Register interviewed the OC Registrar of Voters and found that they will finish counting ballots on Saturday night, and then certify the election on Monday. He said that only a few hundred damaged and orphaned ballots are left to count in the district.

He said that Keirstead’s campaign manager would not commit to a recount yet. A recount would cost in the hundreds of thousands. It would take 15-20 days at up to $10,000 per day. The recount can be requested within five days after the certification.

For background, the news is now saying that the 2,300 kids who are now in detention will not be reunited with their families by Trump’s executive order. This was not a known issue during the Primary campaign, but will be a yoke around the neck of all Trump-supporting Republican candidates in the General Election. It may be the Republicans who now need the August Recess to campaign at home. Last month, Trump killed the program that would give these kids legal representation. We still need the Families Belong Together demonstrations on June 30, including at 11 AM on Main Beach in Laguna Beach.

The estimate of after Election Day ballots in Orange County to count is 26,773. Of these, 24,789 are provisional ballots. But, as Graham found, only a few are left to count in the 48th District.

Democrat Harley Rouda has stabilized his lead over Democrat Hans Keirstead at 62. It was 69 last night, and 40 the night before.

Incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher tonight has 52,596 votes, a gain of only 76 from yesterday.

Democrat Harley Rounda has 29,924, a gain of 51 from yesterday.

Democrat Hans Keirstead has 29,862, a gain of 58 from yesterday. That is a gain of 7 votes over Rouda, reducing his lead of 69 yesterday to 62 today.

Republican Scott Baugh has 27,453, a gain of 41 from yesterday. He is now 2,512 back from Harley Rouda, a difference that can never be erased now.

The Republican total went up 148 to 92,068.

The Democratic total went up 159 to 79,715.

The Total 48th vote went up only 311 to 173,433.  Yesterday, the vote count in the 48th increased by 1,866.  So this is a decline to only a sixth of yesterday’s rate.

Out of all votes, Rouda’s 62 vote lead is by 0.00036, or by 0.036%, or 1/2797, or roughly, one out of 3,000.

Whatever the outcome, these are both Democrats with similar commitments, and the important goal is to overcome the Republican’s 7% lead and to win in the General Election.

Democrats who worked on all campaigns helped inform and motivate all Democratic voters, reducing Rohrabacher’s 2016 lead of 16% to only 7%.  It’s time to return to finish the job, building on your experience.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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