Hurricane Lane and the Importance of Climate Science
I am actually watching a young atmospheric science professor discussing and teaching hurricane science and prediction on a main Hawaiian TV channel: khon 2. Even the channel admits that this is rather unusual, and like a college course. Many viewers called in to say that this is very interesting and applauded them for doing it. The lecturer is Dr. Alison Νugent of the University of Hawaii. (Now explaining that a hectoPascal is a millibar of pressure.) She received her Bachelor’s from Harvard, and her Ph. D. from Yale.
The basis of their discussions are about 10 climate models which differ enough in curvy paths to make a major difference in which islands will get hit, and how severely. The center of the hurricane has already passed to the West of Maui, but two of the model paths show the center backtracking to the East while moving North to hit Maui. The hope, if it continues North, is for the normal Trade Winds from the Northeast to start pushing Lane directly West to miss Oahu. One path has the center of the storm going directly over Kauai.
So here’s the point of this article. Climate models at higher resolution do best at predicting hurricane tracks. But having 10 climate models going every which way, really point to the need to back more climate science and weather science modeling. Of course, hurricanes also are striking the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Puerto Rico and other Caribbean Islands. It is intolerable that Trump, his climate denying administration, and climate denying Republicans can continue to deny climate science, and make serious cuts in climate research and government climate scientists. You really have to be in a hurricane’s possible path to appreciate this.
So far, many stores have been closed for two days, and may be closed for a third. Gas stations had closed. Students have been taken out of school for three days. The university campuses have been closed. Today, Friday, United Airlines cancelled all flights into Maui. My Saturday United flight is still on schedule, and we now have our boarding passes. This just indicates the importance of accurate forecasting. Residents had to prepare for two weeks without electricity or water, and were frantically moving through markets. We stocked up on lots of water and a few days food, flashlights, and gas. The Deli next door to us has been open, as well as the Mexican restaurant.
As I type this, I am watching younger people enjoying riding the waves. But being a snorkeler, I chose Kihei in Southwest Maui to stay. It is shielded from rain by the 10,000 foot and broad Haleakala shield volcanic mountain. This keeps the shoreline clean of agricultural runoff, which leaves clear water and undisturbed coral gardens. Hence, we only got 10 minutes of serious rain by hurricane Lane, so far. Yet it is fascinating watching how the whole state of Hawaii has been responding to the hurricane, and learning about hurricanes.
Hurricane Lane has now been downgraded to level 1, with winds below 85 mph at the eye.
5 PM update: Lane is no longer a hurricane, but only has winds of 70 mph, so it is a tropical storm. It also seems to have finally turned West. Despite this, heavy rain is still expected. The Big Island of Hawaii did receive 30 inches of rain. There was also a brush fire near Lahaina.
I was following the rainfall average on a UC Irvine app called iRain. Sitting in our across-the-highway beachfront rental, I was afraid of the possible 20 foot storm surge. Then the unit’s owner called us and told us that the central driveway of the complex was an overflow drain channel, and he has seen cars floating down it. I parked elsewhere. Since the centers of the islands are volcanic peaks, as are the islands themselves, flooding is the main threat.
