Oct. 24 Election Probabilities for CA 45th, 48th, 49th, and 39th, for California, and for the US, from Nate Silver

Oct. 24th Election Probabilities for CA 45th, 48th, 49th, and 39th, for California, and for the US, from Nate Silver.

First, we add some background data.  White means percentage of non-Hispanic whites.  Income is median household income.  Degree means bachelors or higher.

District,   Lean.   White.   Income.   Degree.

CA 45.    R+4.3.  52%.    $94,000.   54%

CA 48.    R+6.7.  56%.    $83,900.   44%

CA 49.    R+1.1.   61%.    $77,600.   43%

U.S.        Even.    62%.    $55,300.   30%    

We’ve decided to update weekly predictions for these races, today, and twice more before the election.  We will keep the same template as for the initial article.

To shorten your reading, hardly any changes from last week.

We present midterm election probabilities from Nate Silver, who uses multi-factor statistical analyses, covering US, California, and local house races.  The website is fivethirtyeight.com

The probability of the Democrats controlling the House is 84.0%, down slightly from 84.5% last week, while the probability of the Republicans maintaining control is 16.0%, up slightly from 15.5%.  The center of the predicted split is the same as last week, 234 D to 201 R.  

The popular vote for the house is Democrats with an 8.7 point margin, down slightly from the 8.8 point margin last week.  A margin greater than 5.5 leads to a Democratic House.

Trump’s approval rating is at 42.8%, which was at 42.6% last week, with 52.0% disapproving, statistically the same as 52.2% disapproving last week.

The house races can be classified into likelihood categories for seats as:

191 Solid D,   > 95% probability of a D win

17   Likely D,  > 75% D

7     Lean D,   >  60% D

21.  Toss up,  <  60% both.   3 of these 21 to D gives them the 218 majority 

18.  Lean R,   >  60% R

51   Likely R,  >  75% R

130 Solid R,   >  95% R

 

Prediction for CA 45th, Lean D:

D Katie Porter.   Win probability, 2 in 3 or 65.0%. It was 7 in 10.  

Predicted vote 51.3%, compared to 51.7% last week.

R Mimi Walters. Win probability, 1 in 3 or 35.0%.  It was 3 in 10.  

Predicted vote share 48.7% up from 48.3% last week.  We have to note that the statistical errors on this vote share are plus/minus 4.4.  So nothing has really changed here.

The expected turnout is almost half, 49.8%.

 

Prediction for CA 48th, Lean D:

D Harley Rouda.          Win probability 5 in 8 or 64.5%, slightly down from 2 in 3 last week.  Predicted vote 51.3%, same as 51.4% last week.

R Dana Rohrabacher.  Win probability 3 in 8 or 35.5%, slightly up from 1 in 3.  Predicted vote 48.7%, same as 48.8% last week.

Expected turnout is 48.4%.

 

Prediction for CA 49th, Likely D:

D Mike Levin.     Win probability 39 in 40, or 97.4%, up from 19 in 20.  Predicted vote 56.3%, a point jump from 55.1% last week

R Diane Harkey. Win probability 1 in 40, or 2.6%, down from 1 in 20.  Predicted vote 43.7%, a point down from 44.9% last week.

Expected turnout is 47.2%.

 

Prediction for CA 39th, Toss-up. Both were given 1 in 2 probability last week.

D Gil Cisneros.   Win probability 3 in 5, or 59.1%.  Predicted vote 50.8%, up from 50.1 last week.

R Young Kim.     Win probability 2 in 5, or 40.9%.  Predicted vote 49.2%, down from 49.9% last week.

Expected turnout is 43.7%.

 

California has 53 Representatives in the House.  Ratings are:

39 Solid D

1.  Likely D

4.  Lean D

1.  Toss up 

0.  Lean R

5.  Likely R

3.  Solid R

All three of the close races require dedicated campaign work.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
This entry was posted in 2018 Midterm Election, Dana Rohrabacher CA 48th, Donald Trump, Mimi Walters CA 45th. Bookmark the permalink.

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