New York Times – Cook Political Report of the House Outlook

New York Times – Cook Political Report of the House Outlook

The Cook Political Report starts by looking for 23 seats to flip for the Democrats to take the lead.

Republican seats in play:  4 likely to flip, 13 leaning toward flipping, and 28 tossups.  Assuming the 4 and 13 flip, totaling 17, it is still necessary for 6 more seats of the 28 toss-ups to flip.

Democratic seats in play:  1 is likely to flip, 1 is leaning to flip, and 1 is a tossup.  If the two that may flip do flip, then 8 of the 28 Republican tossups must flip, with the uncertainty of the one Democratic tossup.

In another section, they do a conventional breakdown:

183 Solid D

  11 Likely D

  15 Lean D. These total 209.

   29 Tossups. 9 of these are needed to become D for a 218 majority.

   29 Lean R. These total 197. 21 more are needed for a R majority.

   28 Likely R

 140 Solid R

This is very close to the Politico analysis, where 10 of 28 tossups are needed for a Democratic majority.

The Nate Silver 538 breakdown has 20 tossups, with only 1 needed for a Democratic majority.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For two decades I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in reporting on those topics for a decade. For the last four years I have added science policy. Lately, I have been reporting on the Covid-19 pandemic of our times.
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