Election Eve Probabilities for CA 45th, 48th, 49th, and 39th, for California, the US
We decided to simplify these election eve prediction. Earlier ones can be found in the last article on the 538 predictions.
One new thing is that the young 18-29 are turning out five times more than previously.
We present midterm election probabilities from Nate Silver, who uses multi-factor statistical analyses, covering US, California, and local house races. The website is fivethirtyeight.com
The probability of the Democrats controlling the House is 7 in 8, or 87.7%, while the probability of the Republicans maintaining control is 1 in 8 or 12.3%. The center of the predicted split is the same as the last three weeks, 234 D to 201 R.
The popular vote for the house is Democrats with a 9.1 point margin. A margin greater than 5.5 leads to a Democratic House.
Trump’s approval rating is at 41.9%, with 52.8% disapproving, for a difference of -10.9%.
The probability of the Democrats taking the Senate is 1 in 5 or 18.9%, while the R probability is 4 in 5 or 81.1%.
Of the 35 Senate races, two are now listed as tossups. 18 are Solid D, 4 Likely D, 3 Lean D, 2 Tossups, 2 Lean R, 2 Likely R, and 4 Solid R. These add to the non-election seats of 23 D and 42 R. Adding the leaners and solids, this gives 48 D and 50 R, with two tossups.
The House races can be classified into likelihood categories for seats as:
193 Solid D, > 95% probability of a D win
17 Likely D, > 75% D
10 Lean D, > 60% D. These add to 220, which already passes the 218 needed for a majority.
18 Tossups, < 60% both.
12 Lean R, > 60% R
50 Likely R, > 75% R
135 Solid R, > 95% R
Prediction for CA 45th, Lean D:
D Katie Porter. Win probability 5 in 8 or 62.5%.
R Mimi Walters. Win probability, 3 in 8 or 37.5%.
Predicted vote share is D 51.0 to R 49.0.
The expected turnout was about half, or 51.3%.
Prediction for CA 48th, now a Tossup:
D Harley Rouda. Win probability 5 in 9 or 56.3%, down from 64.8% last week.
R Dana Rohrabacher. Win probability 4 in 9 or 43.7%.
Predicted vote share is D 50.5 to R 49.5, closer than last week.
The expected turnout is 49.7%.
Prediction for CA 49th, Likely D:
D Mike Levin. Win probability 29 in 30 or 96.1%.
R Diane Harkey. Win probability 1 in 30, or 3.9%.
Predicted vote D 55.2 to R 44.8.
The expected turnout is 48.7%.
Prediction for CA 39th, California’s second Tossup.
D Gil Cisneros. Win probability 4 in 7 or 57.5%.
R Young Kim. Win probability 3 in 7 or 42.5%.
Predicted vote D 50.6 to R 49.4.
The expected turnout is 44.9%.
The California 39th, 45th, and 48th are very close and require hard work on the turnout on Nov. 6.
California has 53 Representatives in the House. Ratings are:
40 Solid D
1 Likely D
2 Lean D: CA 45th and CA 25th.
2 Tossups: CA 48th and CA 39th.
0 Lean R
4 Likely R
4 Solid R
This will lead to a California Democratic district 43-8 split with 2 tossups.
