Nov. 12 Orange County Election Update: Rouda Victory
The Democrats have just won the Senate seat in Arizona, as called by the Associated Press. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema with 1,097,321 votes or 49.6% so far, has beat Republican Martha McSally with 1,059,124 votes or 48%. So despite the Democrats having many more seats to defend this election, the Republicans have so far only gained one seat, but are ahead in Florida also. So it may end up 53 R to 47 D, or 52 R to 48 D. The last two years it has been 51 R to 49 D.
The short: good news for Democrats in all of the Orange County races covered below.
Saturday, ABC called Democrat Harley Rouda as winner of CA 48th. Here is the Nov. 12, 5 pm results: (Congratulations to those who worked hard for this victory. We can now care for the entire California coast.)
CA 48th:
D Harley Rouda: 113,276. 52.2%
R (I) Dana Rohrabacher: 103,804. 47.8%
The difference is now 9,472 votes, or 4.4%. In my Nov. 9 report, Rouda’s lead was 7,328 or 3.6%.
CA 45th:
R (I) Mimi Walters: 110,852. 50.2%
D Katie Porter: 109,841. 49.8%
The difference is now 1,011 votes or 0.4%. This is a large relative loss for Walters, who on Nov. 9 was ahead by 2,020. Her lead the night before that was 4,637, and the night before that 6,074. Her lead keeps declining, but the decreasing rate is slowing.
One could suspect a trend, that mail in votes are more Democratic. It also depends what precincts are being looked at that day.
State Assembly District 74:
D Cottie Petrie-Norris: 70,558. 50.7%
R (I) Matthew Harper: 68,741. 49.3%
The difference is now 1,817 votes, or 1.4%. Democrat Petrie-Norris has increased her from lead of 620 votes or 0.48% on Nov. 9.
The above districts are entirely contained in Orange County.
CA 39th:
R Young Kim: 88,665. 50.6%.
D Gil Cisneros: 86,708. 49.4%.
The difference is now 1,957 votes, or 1.2%. Kim’s lead has decreased frown 2,672 or 1.6% on Nov. 9.
Orange County had 441,011 ballots left to count after Election Day. They have counted 138,116, or 31.3% of those. They have 302,895 left to count, or 68.7%. So we are about a third of the way through the late count.
Orange County Registration and Turnout:
Total registered voters: 1,558,988
Total ballots cast: 788,784. Or 50.6%, very close to the NateSilver538 predictions.
National Turnout:
49% of the voting-eligible population voted. 110 million Americans voted for their representatives. In the last midterm, 2014, just 36.7% voted. In 2010, 41% voted.
NBC reports the House now has D 226 to R 199, with 10 undecided. The Democrats have gained 31 seats. 218 is needed for a majority.
