Nov. 17, Welcome to Our Blue County. The Blue tide keeps rising.
Yea Bruins, UCLA beat USC, saving the new UCLA coach suffering from a 2-8 season. Stanford-Cal was postponed two weeks, due to the smoke from the Camp fire.
Thursday was the last 80 degree day in Irvine, so summer is over. Friday was 75, so it was fall. Tuesday will only be 69, so winter will have set in, after a four day fall. Climate change!
Trump visited both the Camp fire, the Woolsey fire, and the Borderline bar shooting. He said that the forest ground management had to be managed better, and that it would cost a lot of money. He was surrounded by Gov. Brown, and Gov. elect Newsom, who also said it would be expensive. Trump also said that climate change was a little bit responsible. The recognition of forest brush instead of trees was important, as they stood among still intact trees. Hopefully, this is a little bit of bipartisanship, since California Democrats are now 10% of the House.
The short is again that all four Orange County district races, and our local State Assembly district, are led by Democrats, and their tide keeps rising. We also calculate the relative rate of increase in votes for each candidate in the races.
CA 45
D Katie Porter 145,895, a growth of 2,751 votes from yesterday, to 51.6% from 51.4%.
R (I) Mimi Walters. 136,902, a growth of 1,782 from yesterday, but a drop to 48.4 from 48.6%.
The difference is now 8,993, a growth of 969 votes from 8,024, or 2.8%, up from 2.4% yesterday.
What we hadn’t spelled out before was the growth ratio of 2,751/1,782 = 1.54, or the Democratic candidate is gaining 54% more votes than the Republican candidate in the last day, an outstanding ratio. As a fraction of the total vote gain today, 4,533, the Democrat took 61%, and the Republican got 39%, giving the 1.54 ratio.
CA 48
D Harley Rouda. 141,903, a gain of 1,580, staying at 53.2%.
R (I) Dana Rohrabacher. 124,816, a gain of 1,415, staying at 46.8%.
D Rouda’s lead is now 17,087, up 165, and staying at 6.4%.
As a percentage of the 2,995 total vote gain, Rouda got 53%, and Rohrabacher got 47%.
CA 39
D Gil Cisneros 113,075, a gain of 5,319, from my last report, to 50.78%
R Young Kim. 109,580, a gain of 4,109, from my last report 49.22%
D Cisneros’ lead is now 3,495 out of 222,655, or 1.57%, up from 1.0% at my last report. Of the 9,428 gained, Cisneros got 56%, and Kim got 44%. My report yesterday may have had day-old data on this three county race, but today’s is double checked with two sources.
State Assembly District 74
D Cottie Petrie-Norris. 95,397, up 1,340, to 52.5% from 52.3%.
R (I) Matthew Harper. 86,451, up 795, but dropping to 47.5% from 47.7%.
The difference is now 8,946 votes or 4.6%, up from 4.0% yesterday. Of the 2,135 total votes gained, 63% went D, and 37% went R. That is a ratio of 1.7 in favor of the Democrat.
Of the now 476,011 votes to count after Election Day, 355,362 or 74.7% have been counted, up from 333,156 yesterday, or 70.0%. This gain of 4.7%, with 26.3% left to count, could be because some counters needed Saturday off, or worked a shorter day, or the ballot counting got down to harder details. Still hoping that counting is finished by Thanksgiving. However, the winners seem secure.
