Fifteen Republican States Will Suffer the Most Climate Change in This Century

Fifteen Republican States Will Suffer the Most Climate Change in This Century

This has one exception, of the inclusion of the Democratic state of Hawaii.

A study by the Brookings Institute Metropolitan Policy Program shows in the figure below that the top 8 states suffering the largest GDP damage by the last two decades of this century are Republican.  The drops are from 13% for Florida, down to 9% for South Carolina, and including Texas at 10%.  Then comes the Democratic State of Hawaii at 9%.  This is followed by another seven Republican states, ending with Kansas at 5%.  Then come Democratic states.  (When I was in Hawaii last summer, I dodged two Hurricanes.  Tourists fled, or canceled reservations.)

At the bottom are a political mix of 16 states which make small gains, up to 4%, from warming, and longer crop seasons.  Among the four large states, other than Texas and Florida, above, are California at a 2% loss, and New York, at a 2% gain.

The top 7 states are all Gulf of Mexico States ending with Texas at 10%, and going up to Florida at 13%.  Here is the diagram.


There also is a shortened list of drop in GDP by US Cities.  Eight of the top ten are in Florida, ranging from 10% for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, up to 17.5% for Lakeland-Winter Haven.  Texas’ McAllen-Edinburg-Mission is at 15.9%.  Jackson, Mississippi came in with 10.5% loss in the top ten.  The shortened list did not show whist would happen to California coastal cities.  A map showed some with 0-5% loss and a couple in 5-10% loss.  Since the study this was based on was in 2017, it didn’t include California’s 2018 record fire season, nor the recent Polar Vortex record Northern cold temperatures.

While I have speculated about local losses of Republican areas, it is great to have this nationwide study.  As I was typing this, MSNBC reported that Trump in 2005 filed for a $17.5 loss by Mar-a-Lago, due to a storm.

This reminds me of the Pete Seeger lyrics to “Where Have All The Flowers Gone”:  “When will they ever learn? When will they ever learn?”  This is an odd coincidence, since I am also arranging an OLLI course on mass extinctions, including the insect Armageddon, which is decreasing pollinators for flowers.  

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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