My Concerns About a US Counterattack
There seems to be a rush to judgement on who was responsible for the attacks on Saudi oil facilities. This, unfortunately, reminds me of when we invaded Iraq, under the misconception that Iranian milk trucks were mobile Uranium concentration centrifuges. High speed centrifuges don’t work very well being driven over bumpy, pot-holed roads. Iraq was also supposedly housing a very potent Al-Qaeda contingent, which doesn’t seem to have materialized. Trump actually said that it doesn’t matter who did the Saudi attacks, since it was Iran’s fault, anyway. Again, we had pre-planned the invasion of Iraq, and had hawks pushing it, before the catastrophe of 9/11.
Interim National Security Advisor Charles Kupperman has been described as “Dr. Strangelove” for backing a nuclear war during the Reagan administration, which we were going to “win”, despite 20 million American deaths. Presumably building shelters before the war, and the magic of Reagan’s “Star Wars” defensive missiles, would limit our casualties from 150 million, and let us “win”. Kupperman later worked on defensive missiles for industry. This is the advisor now in charge of the National Security advice to the President. As a replacement for SuperHawk John Bolton, it is like jumping from the frying pan into the fire, which is a bad place to be in this confrontation. Kupperman has also made anti-Muslim statements.
The House has a bill to block the President from making war on Iran without the consent of Congress. Of course, this will be blocked by Mitch, not even reaching the Senate, which will be deprived of its Constitutional obligation to Advise and Consent on foreign relations, especially making war. Apparently, Trump has been plotting a way around not having authorization to start yet another Middle East war. I’m betting that the false words “National Emergency” will be used, perhaps with the nonsensical phrase “I have the Absolute Right”. With my limited legal education, I am still guessing that this Absolute Right does not exist in the Constitution..
I am guessing for tonight, until we learn more tomorrow, that the timing of the missile and drone attack on Saudi Arabia might be the key. This occurred just after Trump announced that his military had killed the son of Osama bin Laden. It wasn’t claimed that that had just occurred during or after the day of remembrance for 9/11, so we might assume that the announcement was delayed to make a bigger splash around 9/11. Since Osama bin Laden was the main terrorist in Al-Qaeda with 9/11, the death of his son would have mattered to Al-Qaeda. Terrorists also like to stage attacks for remembrance of previous attacks, so the attack may have been planned for around 9/11. Al-Qaeda also likes to stage multiple attacks at the same time, in order to use the elements of surprise. Anyway, this is just a wild idea for a day.
The fact that Iranian weapons were used in the attack might be no more convincing than that in an area where weapons are regularly black marketed, people acquire the locally made weapons. The Iranians even imported a lot of US weapons sold after the US left Iraq. Heck, even in the US, you can buy semi-automatic assault type weapons legally without a background check.
I also found Trump’s news conference very upsetting when he said he would have a talk with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over whether to help them counter-attack. He coupled this with the odd statement, that only he, Trump, could call up MBS and have him lower gas prices in the US. This is something that Trump would want just before his re-election in 2020, and one wonders if the art of the deal involves our military help for Trump’s re-election help. Speaking of elections, Trump can’t act Tuesday until the Israeli election is over, and maybe Netanyahu forms a coalition.
Trump said that the Saudis would have to pay for our help. Anybody remember Ronald Reagan and the Iran-Contra deal. Maybe a longer Wall on our Southern Border?