We’re back to this incomprehension of why, in supposedly the most advanced nation in the world, the question of war or peace is determined by one of the most self-interested billionaires, who is seriously affected by any challenges to his manhood and narcissism. Who cancelled the Iranian nuclear disarmament deal partly because Obama made it, and partly because he thinks he can do everything better himself by just a phone call.
We are sitting on pins and needles tonight either waiting for Trump to make up his mind, or construct the most influential staged announcement, and getting a speech writer to stay up all night perfecting it. We don’t even know at what time to tune in.
The Democrats are convinced that only the Congress can declare, fund, and carry out a war. The Republicans tongues are tied by the movie Cats. Except for guess who — Senator Majority Obsequion Lindsey Graham, who just talked to Trump, and then threatened Iran’s oil industry. By the way, Lindsey, oil can be considered a civilian property, supporting their livelihood. That could be an illegal act of war.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will introduce a bill to require Congressional approval for a war with Iran, and for war funding. It is doubted that the bill will pass the Republican Senate.
The other sources of influence with Trump are the Evangelical Churches, the Stock Market, large Republican donors, the US oil industry, his friends in Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu and the American lobby with Israel being threatened, Dubai in the UAE being threatened, etc. None of these have sent any public signals to avoid escalation to war.
Iran has opened the remarkable door to halt revenge now, having sent 15 missiles to rather empty air bases, where troops had advanced detection to go into shelters. There are at least some adults in the room. Trump has surrounded himself with super hawks, starting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, China advisor Peter Navarro, and white nationalist Stephen Miller. Trump has established White House religious liaison groups, but excluded a Muslim group. The wisdom of the entire State Department, Defense Department, CIA, University historians and experts in international relations, the Department of Energy and NGOs on nuclear disarmament, constitutional law professors, and etc. weren’t considered at Mar-a-Lago, or probably not in the White House.
20% of the world’s oil goes through the the Strait of Hormuz from countries on the Persian Gulf. Attacking Iranian oil opens up the familiar tit-for-tat for Iran to blockade the Strait or send more missile attacks to Saudi Arabia.
Oh well, there is always tomorrow. But that is the problem.