Updating the Super Tuesday Democratic Primaries

I am updating this article with minor corrections and changes of delegates in some states, and I also add the pledged delegates which vote on the first ballot.  It seems with so many candidates splitting the pie, that the convention will go to a second or further ballot, in which ballots all delegates will vote.

Now that a brave candidate, previous 12 year New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is trying the Super Tuesday primary, I am reissuing a 9 month old article on the wisdom of doing this.  The delegate counts are being updated with something called bonus delegates, but New York and Florida have moved to later dates.  My source is https://thegreenpapers.com.

Super Tuesday is on March 3, 2020, right after the four February primaries or caucuses.  34.0% of the Democratic Party delegates will be chosen on Super Tuesday, and that includes the largest delegation and Democratic State, California.  The Super Tuesday share of the pledged delegates is 34.1%.  Bloomberg will also put extreme pressure on the outlying candidates, who don’t have the funds or the organization for such far reaching campaigns, and who hope to make a name for themselves in the smaller February primaries and caucuses.

Old Update:  In a recent version I had Florida at 248 delegates on Super Tuesday.  It is really on March 17, 2020.  I also had New York at 319 delegates on Super Tuesday, which is really on April 28.  These have now been corrected throughout.

Bloomberg is worth $55 billion, and can afford ads across the country, and a large and experienced campaign organization in each state.  He was Mayor of New York City for three terms from 2002 through 2013, so he is current on issues.

I like Bloomberg because even when he wasn’t running he pushed my favorite issues of climate action and gun controls.  But, I am hands off and willing to let the nomination play out.

Democratic Primary Delegates are 34.0% Super Tuesday, and only 4.1% February and 1.0% Iowa!

In the entire year 2019, Biden spent 76 days in the February states, Sanders spent 100 days there, Warren spent 102 days there, and Buttigieg spent 96 days there.  In the 2016 Iowa caucus, 171,000 showed up, or 16% of the state’s population.  New Hampshire, the first Primary, had over a 50% turnout.  Meanwhile, I am watching the college football championship game, where, at taxpayers expense, President Trump shows up on national TV with the First Lady and military accompaniment, to hearty cheers in the Deep South, Louisiana.  This is essentially a Trump football political event, although Trump banned politics at football games with Colin Kapernick.

Clearly, this is an appeal for the multitude of Democratic candidates to pay most of their attention to the 46 states that aren’t in the February primaries.  There are many problems in America which have to be addressed all over the country.

That’s the message, now for all of the numbers, starting top down.  In the 2020 Democratic Primaries and Caucuses, there are 4,750 total delegate votes.  Of these, 3,979 are pledged, and 771 are unpledged.  The unpledged are not really superdelegates, since they now cannot vote on the first ballot, if it is contested.  If the first ballot does not determine the nomination, then they can vote in subsequent ballots.  They are 16.2% of the total vote.  The unpledged delegates include 48 Senators, 240 Representatives, 26 Governors, 23 Distinguished Party Leaders, and 434 DNC members.

Of the 3,979 pledged ballots, 2,591 or 65.1% (about 2/3) are district chosen delegates, and 898 or 22.6% are at large delegates.  490 or 12.3% are pledged PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates.  There are also 766 unpledged PLEOs to make up the total 4,745 number of delegates.

The sixteen March 3rd Super Tuesday states and entities are below, comprising 1,617 total delegates, or 34.0% of the total delegates.  The total of the pledged delegates on March 3rd is 1,357, and is 34.1% of the total pledged delegates.  For each state, the first number is the pledged delegates, and the second number is the total number.

415.  494 California

228.  261 Texas

99.     124 Virginia

110.    122 N. Carolina

91.      114  Massachusetts

75.       91   Minnesota

67.       80   Colorado

64.       73   Tennessee

52.       61   Alabama

37.       42   Oklahoma

29.       35   Utah

24.       32   Maine

31.        36   Arkansas

16.        24   Vermont

13.        17   Democrats Abroad

6.          11    American Samoa

The top two states, California and Texas, comprise 755 total delegates or 15.9% of all delegates.  They also have 643 pledged delegates, or 16.2% of all pledged delegates.  California reliably goes Democratic in Presidential elections, and Texas goes Republican.

The February states are, with pledged delegates, total delegates, and dates:

54.       63 S. Carolina, Feb. 29

41.        49 Iowa caucuses Feb. 3

36.        48 Nevada caucuses, Feb. 22

24.        33 New Hampshire, Feb. 11

The total of February states’ delegates is 193, which is 4.07% of the total primary delegates.  The pledged February states’ delegates total 155, which are 3.9% of the pledged delegates.  The first, the Iowa caucuses, are 1.03% of the total number of delegates, and 1.03% of the pledged delegates..  The ratio of the February states’ delegates to Super Tuesday delegates is 12.0%.

Of the six “swing” states, none are during February, and only North Carolina (122) is on Super Tuesday.  The other swing states are Michigan (March 10, 147),  Florida (March 17, 248 delegates), Arizona (March 17, 78), Wisconsin (April 7, 97 delegates), and Pennsylvania (April 28, 210).  The swing states total 902 delegates, or 19.0% of the the total.

The delegate data are from:  https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Alloc.phtml

California, with 494 total delegates, at 10.4% of the total, has finally moved to Super Tuesday, instead of Irrelevant June.  We are also 30.6% of the total Super Tuesday delegates.  We would love to see the candidates here.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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