Projected Coronavirus US and State Deaths, Peaks, and Hospital Needs

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has produced projected Coronavirus evolution cases and deaths, and matched it against hospital resources, to project the hospital needs.  The paper is on the Med preprint archive MEDRXIV/2020/043752, linked here.  The IHME Institute is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the State of Washington.  Their website also allows the user to dial up the hospital data and Coronavirus evolution graphs for the US or each state.

I will summarize the data in a table, for the current top affected states.  While 25 states currently have safe-at-home restrictions, covering 200 million Americans, the study assumes that all 50 states will adopt these restrictions within a week.  The group also emphasizes the importance of people taking the restrictions seriously.

The predictions for the US is that it peaks on 4/14, in 16 days.  This is two days after Trump’s Easter hope.  Note, that it Peaks, not Ends there.  The total deaths by August 3 are estimated at 81,114, but with a wide 95% range from about half to double that number:  38,242-162,106.  I know the numbers should be rounded, but I am just going to follow the conventions of the paper.  That is 1 out of every 4,000 Americans.  It is larger than the number of gun deaths and auto deaths combined.

The US bed shortage at the peak is centered at 49,292, the ICU bed shortage is centered at 14,601, and ventilator shortage at 18,767.  Hopefully, the multiplexing of ventilators works.

New York, with about half of the current US cases, is estimated to have 10,243 deaths, with a range from 4,911-26,983.  Their peak is estimated to occur from 4/3 to 4/11.  The number of ventilator days that patients will suffer through is estimated at 85,028, with a range from 40,771 to 224,139.

California is estimated to have 6,109 deaths, with a range of 778 to 17,163 at 95% confidence level range.  Its peak is estimate between 4/9 to 4/30.  Its cumulative ventilator days are 52,336, with a range from 6,603 to 146,542.

Here is the table for the current top afflicted states, with columns for:  State, Peak Date, Deaths, Bed Shortage, ICU Bed Shortage, and Ventilator Shortage.

State Peak Date Deaths Bed Shortage ICU Bed Shortage Ventilator Shortage
US 4/14 81,114 49,292 14,601 18,767
NY 4//6 10,243 35,301 6,949 4,141
NJ 4/11 4,109 9,829 2,243 1,462
CA 4/24 6,109 0 299 1,238
WA 4/19 1,429 0 96 236
MI 4/8 4,016 10,563 2,564 1,785
MA 4/12 2,231 5,009 1,267 834
FL 5/14 3,342 0 0 451
IL 4/16 2,454 0 204 721
LA 4/8 2,081 2,013 959 775
PA 4/17 3,094 0 428 794
GA 4/21 3,165 2,114 977 846
TX 4/18 5,847 0 617 1,554
CO 4/28 940 0 0 182
TN 4/21 1,551 0 132 411
CN 4/10 773 1,603 422 281
OH 4/16 2,733 0 81 712

 

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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