Coronavirus Predictions for New York

We present the Graphs of the IHME predictions for New York, which peaks on Wednesday April 8.  The IHME is the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the State of Washington at the University of Washington, and run by Chris Murray.  The descriptions of the graphs are similar to the previous blog for the USA.  The graphs below are from the April 5 IHME update.

The peak of hospital beds is on April 8.  But the highest probability for deaths per day is the dashed pink curve, which peaks at 878 deaths per day on April 9th.

Mostly by the end of April, the total deaths in New York are predicted at about 16,000, with a 95% inclusive range from about 12,000 to 22,000.

 

On April 8, the number of hospital beds peaks at about 25,500, with a 95% range from about 4,000 to 11,500.

On April 8, the number of ventilators which will be needed is about 5,700, with a range from 3,400 to 10,000.

We emphasize again, that the predictions are based on every state and everybody following the stay-at-home protocols.

About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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