US Coronavirus Projected Deaths Drop 12,000 in New Update

We present the US projected hospital needs and deaths from the IHME using their April 5 update.  The IHME is presented by Dr. Birx at the White House Coronavirus Task Force News Conferences.  The previous posting on my website was for the April 2nd update.  The  projected total US deaths have dropped from 93,531 to 82,000, or about 11,500.

The IHME is the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, also called from the University of Washington, or the Chris Murray Model.  It is at

The peak in hospital beds needed, or hospitalizations, is in 9 days on April 15, when about 141,000 beds will be needed in the US, with a 95% probability range of (73,000 to 285,000).  That is enormously reduced from the April 2nd projections when 262,000 beds were projected.

The projection of deaths per day peaks on April 16 at 3,130 (1,300 to 7,700), which is an increase from the previous prediction of 2,644 per day.  The 3,100 drops down to 1,000 by May 1.  The actual data, the solid red line, extends almost up to 2,000 deaths per day.


The projection of total deaths is now at 82,000 (49,000 to 136,000), which is down 11,500 from the previous projection of 93,531 deaths.  From the graph, the deaths reach 72,000 by about May 1st, and 80,000 or most of the deaths, by May 15.  On TV, they just announced that the US death toll has reached 10,000.

The projection for the crucial ventilators peaks on April 16 at now 25,000 (14,000 to 46,000), which is 7,500 less than the previous prediction of 32,500, peaking on April 12.


About Dennis SILVERMAN

I am a retired Professor of Physics and Astronomy at U C Irvine. For a decade I have been active in learning about energy and the environment, and in lecturing and attending classes at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at UC Irvine.
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